Friday, March 9, 2018

I'm not sure how the Trade War is going to turn out

The more I learn about what appears to be happening the more likely there will be both casualties and some prisoners taken in this Trade War.

If you understand what Trump is about it is negotiation mostly with his cards held closely to his chest.

In other words you don't know really what he is going to do next.

Another way to look at it is China, The U.S. and the European Union are like Elephants in an economic sense worldwide.

The rest of the countries are more like smaller animals in relation to the 3 big elephants here. So, even though Trump started this war you can be sure that China and the European Union will finish it.

Trump appears to be making the World Trade Organization dysfunctional or inoperable now. Because once countries start talking about their national interests (which usually means they are preparing for some kind of war (trade or otherwise) the usefulness of a world Trade Organization goes away and smaller countries likely are going to be "Rolled over upon" by the U.S., China and the European Union.

Workers in all nations will tend to get screwed by the Trade War in general. Costs of goods will tend to go up, especially if they are made of metal or transported by metal (everything is).

What Trump is doing is VERY Nationalistic to say the least.

BUT, this is how World War II started by nations being VERY Nationalistic like this too.

However, we now have nuclear weapons that prevent more World War IIs but they don't prevent

Trade Wars.

For example, Sanctions ARE a Trade war against Russia and North Korea so this is why Putin is using the Internet against us to change the results of our elections and putting idiots like Trump in place.

However, there is the remote chance that Trump actually might make the long term economic future of the U.S. better as long as the retaliations don't outweigh gains in the long run from other countries.

We'll just have to see 20 years from now how people in the U.S. and world perceive all this.

In History it is more about HOW people perceive what is happening than what IS actually happening in the end.

The people who will starve to death in this trade war or lose their jobs, families or homes or all three will be dead worldwide. So, unless their relatives remember who did this to them "Trump" it is hard to say how it all will be perceived 5, 10 or 20 years from now. And how many millions of people that "Trump" did this too will be victims of this trade war?

I'm not sure anyone is taking a count yet.

However, that is the micro side of it "individual human lives and families lost worldwide".

Then there is the Macro side which is "How do nations of the world fare?" and "How does the whole world economy fare in all of this?"

In the end it is the answer to the last two questions that will determine how people think and feel about this worldwide on the whole.

Because unless you have relatives or friends who "died" from the trade war you wouldn't necessarily have a different point of view than the answers to the last two questions.

However, whenever there are sanctions on nations like Iran, or Russia or North Korea people DIE from this a lot. So, make no mistake about Sanctions OR a Trade War (SAME THING). It is people dying who lose their jobs or businesses or homes or families because of all these things worldwide.

So, just let's be clear here: People Die by the thousands from Sanctions and they die by the thousands in countries from Trade wars because in the end they do the same thing they take people's ability away to make a living in some countries and give that living to other people in other countries.

Who gets hurt the most? Usually people in smaller nations with less economic clout.

So, what happens a lot in trade wars is countries ally with other countries economically to survive trade wars. So, you have Mexico aligning with the U.S. and Canada in NAFTA. You have the European Union which is another set of allies and you will see various other nations creating new or enhanced trading partners to survive this trade war too.

So, for now you know that anyone in metal or Aluminum worldwide could have their job or company on the block in this if it gets more scary than it already is.

And this won't just be in metals like Steel and aluminum, it will be in any commodity that nations can bargain with to come out ahead in the trade war in the end.

No comments: