Theresa May’s Brexit Deal Hangs in Balance Ahead of Crucial Vote
Anti-Brexit campaigners take part in a demonstration with a mock Titanic, outside Parliament in London, Jan. 15, ahead of a crucial vote on the government’s Brexit deal. PHOTO: ROB PINNEY/ZUMA PRESS
LONDON—The British Parliament looks set to reject a proposed Brexit deal by a huge margin Tuesday, a defeat that will likely trigger a no-confidence vote in British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government and force yet another round of frenetic negotiations with her European counterparts.
British lawmakers need to approve the Brexit agreement that Mrs. May crafted with the European Union following the June 2016 referendum vote to leave the bloc for it to go into effect. But many lawmakers have balked at the deal in particular because of a clause that could see the U.K. indefinitely locked in a customs agreement with the EU to avoid a hard border developing on the island of Ireland.
Businesses Prepare for Prospect of ‘No-Deal’ Brexit
With fewer than 100 days before the U.K. is set to leave the European Union, companies on both sides are preparing for the possibility of a "no-deal" scenario, which could leave goods stuck in ports in the U.K and the EU. Photo: Reuters
After months of complaints that the deal is unacceptable, British lawmakers are likely to show their displeasure by voting against it in record numbers.
With just over two months before the U.K. is due to quit the EU on March 29, time is running short for a plan “B” to avoid the economic disruption of leaving the bloc without a deal in place. If defeated, Mrs. May must set out the government’s next move by Monday. If, as expected by the prime minister’s aides, she opts to put a revised version of the deal to a revote, Parliament could be called to approve new wording within weeks.
Key will be the margin by which Mrs. May loses Tuesday’s vote. If the defeat falls below 100 votes, Parliament could come around to a revised version of the deal. Over that threshold and it looks increasingly likely that her plan will be ditched or radically altered in favor of a different deal.
In recent days, British political debate over Brexit has reached fever pitch. Several lawmakers are trying to twist Parliament’s arcane and murky procedures to their advantage and take Brexit in their preferred direction by forcing votes on amendments on Mrs. May’s deal. Meanwhile, Mrs. May and her allies were urging lawmakers to back the deal to ensure that Brexit isn’t canceled completely.
Breaking the Stalemate
Chances are rising that Britain’s scheduled departure date from the EU on March 29 may be postponed as Parliament struggles to find a way forward on Brexit. Here are the options:
*A two or three option ballot is possible
Source: Staff reports
“If we don’t vote for this agreement then we risk playing into the hands of those who do not want Brexit to go ahead,” Michael Gove, the U.K.’s environment secretary and key Brexit proponent, told the British Broadcasting Corp on Tuesday.
With her deal Mrs. May is seeking to square an impossible circle, maintaining deep access to EU markets while taking back sovereign control over U.K. laws. The compromise deal on offer ensured that when the U.K. quits the EU in March it can move into a yearslong transitional period to buy time while it negotiates a trade agreement with its European counterparts.
However, Mrs. May has failed to get the crucial backing of the small Northern Irish party that she relies upon for a slim majority in Parliament.
“We want to see a better deal than what is on the table at present,” said Arlene Foster, the head of the Democratic Unionist Party. At issue is the Irish backstop, a fall back position built into the deal that would mean the U.K. would stay inside the EU’s customs area and Northern Ireland would follow EU standards for products and food if a trade deal hasn’t been reached by the end of the transitional period.
That could mean Northern Ireland following some EU rules while the rest of the U.K. diverges, something the DUP says it cannot support.
Mrs. Foster argues that a big loss on Tuesday will actually help Mrs. May wring concessions from Brussels by showing the extent of Parliament’s displeasure with the deal and giving Britain more leverage to avoid no-deal.
On Monday, the EU’s top officials offered Mrs. May written assurances intended to rally support in the British Parliament for the Brexit deal by setting out the bloc’s determination to quickly conclude a trade deal with Britain. The concessions were rapidly dismissed by anti-EU British lawmakers.
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As of Tuesday morning, all Brexit options remain on the table. Continued parliamentary rejection of Mrs. May’s deal would raise the prospect of an exit from the EU without an agreement, causing widespread disruption to business and travelers. That specter could eventually prompt Mrs. May, for her part, to put her deal to the public through a second referendum, the outcome of which could conceivably keep Britain in the bloc after all. The longer the deliberations go, the more likely the government will ask EU leaders for an extension of talks.
Lobbying from both sides of the debate has ramped up in recent days. A group pressing for a second Brexit referendum Tuesday erected a replica of the Titanic outside the House of Commons dubbed HMS Brexit, in protest of Mrs. May’s deal, with a replica of the prime minister at the helm.
Despite the potential rejection of the Brexit deal, Britain’s unprecedented political situation leaves Mrs. May paradoxically invulnerable. The opposition Labour Party is expected to call a vote to try to topple her minority government, but it doesn’t have the parliamentary support to succeed. An effort by rebel Conservative lawmakers to get rid of Mrs. May as leader fell flat before Christmas.
Given this political paralysis, Mrs. May is expected to struggle on and try to get a version of her Brexit deal approved. So far, there seems to be a majority in Parliament for only one thing: that the U.K. shouldn’t leave the EU come March without securing a deal to smooth its exit.
Lawmakers Tuesday will get a chance to show how they want Brexit to play out. Four amendments to Tuesday’s motion to pass the deal have been selected by the Speaker of the House of Commons, including one that forces the government to avoid a no deal Brexit and another that aims to put a time limit on the U.K.’s transition out of the EU. If they are voted for, a process that would happen before the big vote on the Brexit deal Tuesday evening, that would show Mrs. May and EU leaders what kind of Brexit deal the House of Commons would accept.
However, the most likely scenario is that all the amendments and the government’s Brexit deal are rejected by lawmakers, meaning the process of finding a majority in Parliament to back a deal could start again in a few weeks’ time.
Write to Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com
