When I look at this situation and standoff between the U.S. and Iran it seems to be that we are being played. What I mean be this is that all they may want to do is for us to believe that they will close the strait. All they have to do is to make us believe they might to waste a whole lot of U.S. Navy money and firepower waiting there (for months?). They really don't have to do anything to waste a whole lot of money of our navy being there. I think this is what they have in mind. To wear us down until it is too expensive to remain waiting there any longer and then maybe trying to broker a deal to reduce sanctions. I don't think the Iranians actually want to close the Straight of Hormuz. They just want to be able to sell their oil.
But then, all you need is one extreme sailor or soldier (on either side) and you have World War III (or less). However, I would also say that what Israel, Iran, Russia, China and the U.S. will do over there is very unpredictable as well. Also, the rest of the world is worried and likely because of this the price of oil will go up just on a worry and betting basis by investors. So, any way you look at this it is bad for all the economies in the world.
Also, another thought or two, China is very dependent upon Iranian oil and then we have Russia whose economy is based upon the price of oil because it is the primary thing that Russia sells to the world. I think these two dynamics should be interesting to watch over the coming weeks and hopefully not months ahead.
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