The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce | The ...

The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce | The ...

The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce

By Olivier Knox, Yahoo! News | The Ticket – 12 hrs ago

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Sorry, everyone, but flying cars don't appear in the "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" report that the director of national intelligence's office made public on Monday.

Instead, the National Intelligence Council paints the picture of a world in which the U.S. is no longer the unquestionably dominant global player; individuals and small groups may carry out devastating cyber or bioterror attacks; oh, and food and water may be running short in some places.

The 160-page report is a great read for anyone in the business of crafting the script for the next James Bond movie, a treasure trove of potential scenarios for international intrigue, not to mention super-villainy. But the council took pains to say that what it foresees is not set in stone. The goal is to provide policymakers with some idea of what the future holds in order to help them steer the right economic and military courses.
"We do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications," the report cautioned.
Other ideas the futurists reported: Global population will reach "somewhere close to 8.3 billion people," and food and water may be running scarce in some areas, especially regions like Africa and the Middle East.
"Climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of these critical resources," the report said. "Climate change analysis suggests that the severity of existing weather patterns will intensify, with wet areas getting wetter, and dry and arid areas becoming more so."We are not necessarily headed into a world of scarcities, but policymakers and their private sector partners will need to be proactive to avoid such a future."
What about America in 2030? The report predicts that the U.S. "most likely will remain 'first among equals' among the other great powers." But "with the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over and Pax Americana—the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast winding down."
Also, "Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP [Gross Domestic Product], population size, military spending and technological investment," the report said.
It also suggests that Islamist extremism may be a thing of the past in 2030. But that doesn't mean small groups won't try to wreak havoc.

"With more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions," said the report.

Four "megatrends" shaping the world were cited: growing individual empowerment; diffusion of power; major shifts in demographics; and rising demand for food, water and energy.

The report also sees the potential for "black swan" shocks to the system. These include: a severe pandemic; faster-than-forecast climate change; the collapse of the European Union; the collapse of China (or its embrace of democracy); and a reformed Iran that abandons its suspected nuclear weapons program. They also include a conflict using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons, or a large-scale cyber-attack; solar geomagnetic storms that may knock out satellites and the electric grid; or a sudden retreat of the U.S. from global affairs.

So what about the flying cars, a staple of science fiction? The report is mum on that front, but it does raise the intriguing possibility that "self-driving cars could begin to address the worsening congestion in urban areas, reduce roadway accidents, and improve individuals' productivity (by allowing drivers the freedom to work through their commutes)."

And the cool cats over at Wired magazine's "Danger Room" national security blog have underlined how the report sees the growth of other technologies, including "superhumans" potentially roaming the landscape.

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The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce | The ...

If you have ever studied predictions from the 1930s through the 1970s and 1980s you know just how wrong these kinds of predictions usually are. Also, if you are an intuitive that is precognitive you also know that the future is as good or as bad as people make it. So, the more educated and experienced people tend to be, the more efficient they will be with whatever they already have.

For example, even if the water level in the oceans is a couple of feet higher than now (this is way above what they presently expect by 2030), I think people are smart enough to build new houses that either float or to paint their cement houses in swimming pool paint so water can't get in, or to raise their houses up on stilts so they are 10 feet off the ground (or something like this). In regard to water, it is possible (even with just solar power alone) to recycle your gray water into drinkable water once again. You cannot easily recycle black water. But you can take the water off your roofs through your gutters and downspouts and collect it in something the size of a water tank or even Hot Tub so you have enough clean water even with recycling(purifying) your gray water back into stuff for flushing toilets or washing hands for example.

The whole thing is about efficiency and education of people. If people aren't educated enough it could be pretty horrific. But even right now without education it has been horrific many places on earth Always already. 

It's my bet that people in the U.S. will still have good food to eat and clothes to wear even if they don't have jobs. I don't think things will be very different than right now (but I could be wrong) but not in the ways the report is talking about now. 

In the 1950s through the 1980 we all expected the "Jetsons" cartoon to be actually what we were going to be living. But if we don't get enough people educated worldwide we might be living the "Flintstones" instead in 2030. 

The one thing that I likely can predict without finding myself wrong is likely that human population will be on the decrease between 2030 and 2040 because over 20 million a year will be passing on in the undeveloped world from weather related problems. Likely by then at the very least 20,000 to 40,000 will be passing on per year in the United States from weather also. So, it will be about the same figure as die from traffic accidents per year the last 10 years or so by then from weather.

This likely will be seen as the biggest problem on earth then. But of course by telling you this you will act to change this and that is why I'm telling you about this now.