Earth Heating Up Faster

Earth is heating up faster than ever

One country's massive output helped push global carbon emissions to a record high in 2012. New plan proposed » 

 

Global carbon emissions hit record high in 2012

By Nina Chestney | Reuters – 16 hrs ago

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  View PhotoReuters/Reuters - Residents walk past a paper mill in Jilin city, Jilin province November 30, 2009. REUTERS/Stringer

By Nina Chestney

LONDON (Reuters) - China led a rise in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to a record high in 2012, casting doubt over the chances of limiting global warming to what scientists regard as an acceptable level.

Falls in CO2 emissions by the United States and Europe were offset by China, lifting worldwide emissions by 1.4 percent to 31.6 billion tonnes, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

Scientists have said that the rise in global average temperature needs to be limited to less than 2 degrees Celsius this century to prevent climate effects such as crop failure and melting glaciers, but that would require emissions to be kept to about 44 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2020.
The IEA said that the world is on a path to an average temperature rise of between 3.6 and 5.3 degrees Celsius.

China's CO2 emissions rose by 300 million tonnes last year, but the 3.8 percent gain was one of the lowest it has achieved in a decade, reflecting the nation's efforts to adopt renewable sources and improve energy efficiency.

Japan's emissions, meanwhile, rose by 70 million tonnes, or 5.8 percent, as efforts to improve energy efficiency failed to offset increasing use of fossil fuels after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the IEA said.

In the United States, a switch from coal to gas in power generation helped to reduce emissions by 200 million tonnes, or 3.8 percent, bringing them back to the level of the mid-1990s.

Even though the use of coal increased in some European countries because of low prices, emissions in Europe declined by 50 million tonnes, or 1.4 percent, because of the economic slowdown, growth in renewables and emissions caps on industrial and power companies.
FOUR-POINT PLAN
IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told Reuters that he does not expect any EU country to be able to produce substantial amounts of shale gas, as the United States has done, before 2020.
"After 2020, if there are increases in shale use in EU countries such as Britain, Poland and Germany, and it replaced coal like in the U.S., there would be a greater reduction in emissions," he said.

The IEA urged governments to adopt quickly four policies that would ensure climate goals could be reached without harming economic growth. They are: improving energy efficiency in buildings, industry and transport; limiting the construction and use of inefficient power plants; halving methane emissions; and partially phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

The agency said that the coal industry in particular needs to take the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology more seriously to ensure cleaner use of the fossil fuel.
CCS buries and traps CO2 underground but it is not yet a commercially viable proposition.
"Realistically, we need to see CCS penetrate within the next 10 years - certainly no later than 2025 - or the fossil fuel industry will be caught unprepared," Birol said.
International negotiators are in Bonn, Germany, until Friday for United Nations talks aimed getting a new global climate treaty signed by 2015 and in force by 2020.
U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said that the IEA report comes at a crucial time for the talks.
"Once again we are reminded that the gap can be closed this decade, using proven technologies and known policies, and without harming economic growth in any region," she said.

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Earth is heating up faster than ever

Here is my logic of what likely is coming if no one changes much from now. 

First, people who live in countries and cities and areas that have enough infrastructure (in other words well engineered buildings and shelters for various kinds of storms, wind, rain, snow, droughts with wind etc. will tend to survive more than those who don't.  So,  likely more and more and more people will perish in the more undeveloped not properly engineered areas over the earth during the next 300 years. 

Those that survive to breed will make sure their children get educated in regard to where to live and what to do and what not to do if they want to survive the increasing weather events.

Then slowly people will be thinned out all over earth. Then the people who survive who are practical and educated will also tend to breed with those who survived everything with or without technology. 

 This will tend to genetically create well educated intuitive instinctual people who learn to be efficient more and more in every single way. So, who will be left are the smartest most instinctive intuitive people who know how to put into practice the most efficient way to survive anything worldwide.

I would say given the present variables in the year 2300 there likely will not be more than 1 to 2 billion people left on earth because of a variety of reasons and genetically and in every other way they will be as different from us as we are from those who settled the U.S. 3 hundred years ago now. For example, 2300 is to 2000 as 2000 is to 1700.

So, it is likely the next 300 years might be called, "The Great Thinning Out of Mankind".

Part of the efficiency of survival will likely be the elimination of all fossil fuels on earth because of their tendency to generate CO2 during this next 300 years.

So, the likelihood is that by 300 years from now we might be able to start to bring Earth's temperatures back to 20th Century norms by then or within a few hundred years after. The lowest amount of people we could go to and still have enough positive genetic diversity likely is somewhere between 10,000 and 250,000 worldwide. But if we were between 10,000 and 250,000 left we likely would have gone back to cave men and cave women in many ways because there wouldn't be enough of us to carry on civilization without self replicating robots or something like that to teach us. But, superstitious people not educated enough might destroy such robots and return back to cave men and cave women once again. 

If this is true, "How many times have we already done this before on Earth and other planets?"