Friday, November 28, 2014

1x 10 to the 4th power: The ratio between April and November of new Ebola cases

end quote from:

Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa - Wikipedia, the free ...

I'm don't claim to be a mathemetician. However, I was able to calculate that the spread of cases from July to October was at a rate of at least 10 times. So, I realized if nothing was done this rate of ten times per 4 month period would keep going at that rate unless the world responded quickly enough. 

However, now we are at about 16,000 plus cases and the world still hasn't responded enough. For example, the last reports were that hundreds of doctors and nurses had volunteered where thousands were needed. 

And if and when the thousands of Volunteer doctors and nurses do respond we will then need 10s of thousands or hundreds of thousands of nurses and doctors and so on. This is what happens in a pandemic which is what I believe now have.

We are slowing it down but not enough to ever be able to stop it at the present rate of increase of doctors and nurses. Stopping it would have had to have happened in December or January. Now that is unlikely to ever happen under present circumstances.

However, I'm thinking that most of the developed world might be okay relatively speaking. However, third world nations where people aren't educated about medical ideas and technology likely won't be.

However, vaccines could change all this too once they are widespread enough.

However, it might be important to note here that by 2016 the ten times every 4 month increase of cases results in over 1 billion cases of Ebola here on earth by January 2016.

 

 

 

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