There's
the Vladimir Putin who patted President Barack Obama on the back, and
who wrapped a shawl around the wife of Chinese President Xi Jinping to
protect her from the cold.
There’s the Vladimir Putin who patted President Barack Obama on the back, and who wrapped a shawl around the wife of Chinese President Xi Jinping to protect her from the cold.
And then there’s the Putin who greeted his hosts at this weekend’s summit of global leaders in Brisbane by parking warships
off the Australian coast. This after his air force announced bomber
sorties as far as the Gulf of Mexico and Russian troops entered Ukraine,
according to NATO.
With his updated brand of Cold War
diplomacy, Putin kept himself in the spotlight at the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation forum in Beijing and probably will do the same at
the Group of 20 meeting starting Nov. 15. The attention doesn’t change
his Achilles heel: the Russian economy, hit by sanctions over Ukraine, falling oil prices and a tanking currency.
“Putin
is still a class act, able to charm and intimidate by turns -- but
ultimately to keep others guessing about his intentions,” said Euan
Somerled Graham, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies in Singapore. “Yet it actually says more about Russia’s weaknesses than strength that the former KGB colonel has atavised into a czar.”
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, host for the G-20
meeting, says he’s ready for Russia’s president. The two met in Beijing
this week to discuss a probe into the July downing of a Malaysian
airliner over Ukraine.
Photographer: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
U.S. President Barack Obama, left, Chinese President Xi Jinping, second from left,... Read More
Football Charge
“One of the points that I tried to make to President Putin is that Russia
would be so much more attractive if it was aspiring to be a superpower
for peace and prosperity, if it was trying to be a superpower for ideas
and for values instead of trying to recreate the lost glories of czarism
or the old Soviet Union,” the Australian leader said today.
Abbott pledged last month to “shirtfront”
Putin, using an Australian-rules football term for flattening an
opponent with a shoulder charge, over the crash that killed 298
passengers and crew, including 38 Australians. He has accused Russia of
supplying missiles to rebels who shot down the plane.
In Brisbane, shops are selling T-shirts with a picture of Putin’s face and the words “Shirtfont” around it.
“Putin
has been acting tough to defend issues that might undermine his rule or
the interests of Russia,” said Li Xing, a professor of Russian and
Asian affairs at Beijing Normal University. “But at the same time he has
been constantly showing his soft side in public.”
The charm in
Beijing only went so far: Obama stiffened at Putin’s pat, and Xi’s wife
handed the shawl off to an aide almost immediately.
Tank Movement
The
struggle over Ukraine has boosted Putin’s popularity at home while
helping make the ruble the world’s worst performer this year with a 29
percent decline against the dollar.
NATO
reports of renewed movement of Russian tanks, artillery and combat
troops this week into areas of eastern Ukraine held by pro-Moscow rebels
prompted the European Union and U.S. to consider further sanctions on
Russia.
“Obama should let Putin know that shipments of military
equipment to Ukrainians could become reality, and he should spur
Ukrainians’ hope that resisting Russia makes sense,” said Eiki Berg,
professor of international relations at the University of Tartu in Estonia.
“I would not rule out using the same methods as Putin does, on the
principle of ‘know your enemy and respond adequately to force.’”
‘Psychological Pressure’
Putin
appears to have embraced the penalties as an opportunity to stimulate
Russian domestic industry. He is betting the U.S. and Europe don’t care
enough about Ukraine to arm the government of the former Soviet
republic, whereas he sees it as a key strategic issue and is prepared to
back the rebels with arms.
“There won’t be a second phase of
the conflict for now, this is a show of force,” independent defense
analyst Anton Lavrov said of Russia sending further supplies to the
rebels. “It’s part of psychological pressure exerted by Putin.”
Torzhok-based Lavrov said Putin’s primary aim is to force Ukraine to
negotiate on Russia’s terms.
In a demonstration of Putin’s
ability to project force globally, Russia announced plans this week to
extend its long-range bomber patrols as far as the Gulf of Mexico and
eastern Pacific Ocean. Abbott said yesterday that the mission of the
Russian warships approaching Australia had to have been planned long in advance and weren’t about “shirtfronting.”
Close Encounters
A policy brief
released Nov. 10 by the European Leadership Network, a policy advisory
group, listed almost 40 close encounters between Russian and Western
forces that have taken place since Russia annexed Crimea in March.
“The
Russian armed forces and security agencies seem to have been authorized
and encouraged to act in a much more aggressive way towards NATO
countries, Sweden and Finland,”
the brief said. “They serve as a demonstration of Russia’s capability
to effectively use force for intimidation and coercion, particularly
against its immediate neighbors.”
The incidents include a near-collision between an SAS Group (SAS)
passenger jet and a Russian reconnaissance plane that didn’t transmit
its location, a Russian imitation of an air attack on a Danish island
and Russian fighter planes repeatedly flying low over U.S. and Canadian
military vessels.
“It probably says something about the
colorlessness of conventional politicians that such attention is focused
on Putin’s ‘antics,’” Graham said. “Villains, even when genuinely
dangerous, often have a dramatic appeal.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net Anne Swardson, Iain McDonald
No comments:
Post a Comment