begin quote from:
No Escape for Germany in Terror Wave
| Wall Street Journal | - |
The
hope that Germany could be spared the violence that has befallen
neighboring France and Belgium was abruptly punctured Friday by what
appeared to be a concerted attack by several gunmen in Munich, the
affluent Bavarian capital.
No Escape for Germany in Terror Wave
Regardless of motive, Munich attack has potential to change views on security
ENLARGE
People leaving the Olympic shopping center in Munich on Friday after the shooting.
Photo:
Sebastian Widmann/Associated Press
Analysis
Even though that attack was claimed by Islamic State, taken on its own, it could have been dismissed as an isolated event. This is no longer the case.
The nature of what Munich police called a terror attack was unclear even as they declared the situation under control early Saturday and identified the gunman as an 18-year-old German-Iranian.
Yet, whatever his motives—ideological, racist or plain criminal—the scale seemed bound to upend Germany’s domestic security posture, its politics and, possibly, its foreign policy.
Any doubts about the government’s grip on security could weaken Chancellor Angela Merkel’s standing, just over a year before the next general election.
Security officials have warned for months that the terror menace in Germany was real and present. On New Year’s Eve, police in Munich shut down two train stations citing a serious threat, although nothing materialized.
Last month, Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière, echoing counterparts in other Western countries, said that the setbacks experienced by Islamic State in Iraq and Syria could lead it to “transfer its activities toward Europe.”
German authorities have been on high alert at least since the November attacks in Paris and claim to have foiled several terror plots—none of them at an advanced stage. But this hasn’t translated into a visibly heightened security presence on German streets.
Heavily armed military personnel are ubiquitous in French train stations and airports. Security officers on the country’s railway network carry visible weapons and protective gear.
Not so in Germany, where the security presence in big transport hubs oscillates between discreet and invisible. And Germany’s constitution bans the state from deploying its army at home.
Without a serious terror attack on German soil since the killing of two U.S. soldiers by a Kosovar Islamist at Frankfurt airport in 2011, authorities haven’t been under public pressure to show a more muscular, reassuring presence.
Yet voters have been growing concerned. In a survey by insurer R+V conducted in April and May, some 73% of respondents said they were concerned about a terror attack, a 21-point jump from the previous year.
A surge in demand for more security—long trumped by a historically grounded focus on privacy rights and basic freedoms—could jolt German politics, even spurring calls for tougher terror and surveillance laws.
Any change on that front is bound to be gradual, though, given the country’s many checks and balances and its consensual brand of politics.
There was no evidence linking Friday’s attack to the roughly one million migrants who entered the country last year. But recent opinion polls have shown perceived insecurity has come hand-in-hand with doubts about the wisdom of Ms. Merkel’s decision to open the borders.
When North African men were found to be behind a wave of sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, Ms. Merkel saw her hitherto stellar ratings plummet. She has since recovered somewhat, and her party remains Germany’s most popular.
Depending on who was behind it, the attack could boost support for Alternative for Germany, a populist, antimigrant party that is now hovering around the 12% mark. It currently isn’t represented in the federal parliament, but would enter next year if it won at least 5% of the vote.
That would change Germany’s status as a country relatively untouched by the populist trend that has swept others in the West. And given its proportional electoral system, it could make forming the next governing coalition a complicated headache.
The attack’s impact on Germany’s foreign policy is harder to gauge at this stage. But elsewhere, the ascent of populist movements, from the U.K. to the U.S., has coincided with mounting isolationist longings.
Germany has become more assertive on the world stage in recent years, leading the international response to Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region, for instance. While not involved in combat, it is also part of the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
This new stance has always been controversial at home. It is hard to imagine Friday’s trauma would push German voters to call for more foreign intervention.
Write to Bertrand Benoit at bertrand.benoit@wsj.com
