Though I sort of compare now the world to What happened in the 1930s before World War II I heard Leon Panetta ex-CIA chief say that it more resembles World War I. So, I decided to ask Google AI about this and this is what it said:
I believe he spoke about this on The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer this morning Friday morning January 9th 2025.
begin quotes:
The present world situation mirrors the lead-up to World War I through
rising nationalism, militarism, complex alliances, and great power competition, much like the pre-1914 era's focus on imperial expansion and rival blocs. Key similarities include: - Intense Nationalism & Identity Politics: A surge in nationalist sentiment and ethnic tensions, similar to the Balkan conflicts and pan-Slavic movements before WWI, are evident today, fueling instability and territorial disputes.
- Militarization & Arms Races: Increased defense spending and military build-ups by major powers, echoing the pre-WWI arms race and “armed camp” mentality in Europe, create heightened tensions and a perceived need for preemption.
- Entangling Alliances: A web of formal and informal security pacts, like NATO and other regional agreements, creates risks that local conflicts could quickly escalate, similar to the domino effect of European alliances after the Archduke's assassination.
- Great Power Rivalry: Competition for global influence, economic dominance, and strategic positioning between major powers (US, China, Russia) mirrors the pre-WWI rivalries between Germany, Britain, France, and Russia.
- Globalization & Backlash: The interconnectedness of the global economy, combined with rising inequality and migration, creates social strains and nationalist backlashes, reminiscent of the globalization waves before WWI.
While
modern technology, nuclear weapons, and different global institutions
offer some contrasts, the underlying dynamics of competing national
interests, escalating alliances, and assertive nationalism present
unsettling parallels to the period before the Great War.
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