Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Asia shares take heart from oil bounce, dollar capped

Tue, Dec 2, 2014, 2:59AM EST - US Markets open in 6 hrs and 31 mins

Asia shares take heart from oil bounce, dollar capped


Reuters

A man walks past an electronic board showing the stock market indices of various countries, outside a brokerage in Tokyo
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A man walks past an electronic board showing the stock market indices of various countries, outside a brokerage in Tokyo, November 19, 2014. REUTERS/Yuya Shino
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian equities rose on Tuesday, with a rebound in crude oil and other commodity prices favoring the stock markets of resource-exporting countries.
Crude oil held on to its gains after rebounding sharply overnight from five-year lows. The bounce in commodities including iron ore, copper and gold was also good for commodity currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars.
"Yesterday much of the move higher right across the entire commodity complex... suggests that there was a strong element of people increasing their allocation to commodities, taking advantage of these low prices," said Mark Keenan, head of commodities research Asia at Societe Generale.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.6 percent.
Buoyed by a relief rally in resource firms, Australian shares (.AXJO) rose 1.4 percent.
Chinese shares also posted solid gains after Monday's soft manufacturing data added to speculation that China may implement further stimulus measures. The Shanghai composite index (.SSEC) climbed 1.3 percent.
Europe was seen catching some of the updraft from Asia, with spreadbetters expecting Britain's FTSE (.FTSE) and France's CAX (.FCHI) to open 0.1 percent higher, while Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) was seen opening flat.
Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and equities mostly shrugged off a downgrade of Japan's sovereign debt rating by Moody's on Monday.
The five-year JGB yield in fact touched a record low of 0.090 percent (JP5YTN=JBTC) on Tuesday, while Tokyo's Nikkei average (.N225) pared earlier losses and rose 0.5 percent.
The rating agency downgraded Japan by one notch to A1 from Aa3, after Japan opted to postpone an increase in sales tax intended to tackle its debt burden.
"It can be said that the sales tax delay had gained the support of the international community as it was meant to help the economy amid a slowdown, and the downgrade is unlikely to change such views," said Masafumi Yamamoto, a market strategist at Praevidentia Strategy in Tokyo.
"As for JGBs, which are more directly impacted by downgrades, any effect is likely to be temporary thanks to the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing. Past downgrades have also had little impact on JGBs," he said.
The dollar was steady at 118.480 yen (JPY=). In turbulent trade immediately after Moody's downgrade of Japan the greenback jumped to a seven-year high of 119.15 but its gains were pared as the rebound in oil prices lifted commodity currencies against the greenback.
The Canadian dollar rose to C$1.1327 per USD (CAD=D4) from a one-month low of C$1.1459 and the Aussie (AUD=D4) fetched $0.8512, pulling away from a 4-1/2 year low of $0.8417.
U.S. crude oil was down 0.6 percent at $68.61 a barrel, after posting a 4 percent rise overnight from a five-year low of $63.72 as bearish positions were squeezed.
Gold, beaten down after Switzerland on Sunday voted against a proposal to boost gold reserves, also held on to the bulk of its gains after rebounding sharply on spillover support from the bounce in oil.
Spot gold (XAU=) was down 0.4 percent at $1,205.33 an ounce after gaining 3.7 percent the previous day.
(Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Byron Kaye in Sydney; Editing by Eric Meijer)
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  • TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian equities rose on Tuesday, with a rebound in crude oil and other ...
  • Monday, December 1, 2014

    Oil

    The price of oil is likely to continue going down at least for the time being. However, it also could go up without warning too.

    But, the stock market does not like uncertainties beyond a certain point. So, the stock market might be strange as oil drops further and further the way hedge funds are predicting (to zero).

    In the end who knows what will drive the price?

    However, we know one thing for sure:

    Middle Eastern Sunni and Shia governments don't want ISIL to over throw their governments. Lower oil prices is one way to prevent ISIL supporters to have the money to donate to ISIL. It is also a way to prevent Sunni and Shia governments from collapsing from ISIL. However, I'm not sure how this will work in Iran which is the primary Shia government in the Middle East and I'm not sure what this is going to do long term to Russia either when combined with other economic sanctions from the U.S. and Europe and many other countries around the world.

    However, what this actually will do to both the middle east and the world is a complete unknown for the present either in the short run or the long run.

    The biggest danger I see is oil going to zero within a year or two and then rising up to 20 or 30 dollars a gallon for some reason. This could easily set off a worldwide great depression when the price rises too high all of a sudden for whatever the reason worldwide all at once.

    You might say to me, "What could cause this?"

    That is actually easy. ISIL could cause this. Putin could cause this. Ebola could cause this. Other as of yet unknown factors like Global Climate change could cause this or even other things no one has thought of yet.

    Cramer's spells out oil's worst case scenarios

    Cramer's spells out oil's worst case scenarios

    With the drop in the price of oil recently, Cramer outlines the worst-case scenarios of what could happen. Could it really be that bad?
    CNBC
    Tue, Dec 2, 2014, 2:44AM EST - US Markets open in 6 hrs and 46 mins

    Cramer's spells out oil's worst case scenarios

    CNBC
    Cramer's spells out oil's worst case scenarios
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    Getty Images
    At what point are oil prices too low to keep helping the stock market go higher? Jim Cramer thinks we have found it, with declines across the board seen in the Dow (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI), S&P (^GSPC) and NASDAQ (^IXIC). Sellers are worried that there could be something lurking under those plummeting prices of oil, even as there was a $3 rebound from the hideous oil session on Friday. But could it be that bad? Let's say that oil really, really tanks due to excessive supply, mainly in the United States, and the low demand from China's slowing growth and European weakness continues. What are the worst case scenarios that could occur? The "Mad Money" host shared his take on the repercussions of low energy prices, to set the stage for what investors should expect.Read More What the US should do to fight this 'oil war' Rails: There are certainly ramifications of low energy prices beyond production. Oil companies use rails in places where there is no pipeline capacity. With the decline in crude, it will become too expensive to drill in places with no pipelines.
    Industrials: These companies are getting hit hard, including General Electric (GE), which has been noticeably present in the oil patch, and Dover, which was just downgraded from a hold to a sell.
    Credit: "I don't want to finger any one company because we don't know how they're hedged, and we don't want to cause a panic. But there are stocks down 30, 40 and 50 percent in a matter of weeks and it's not because they're oil and gas companies. It's because they've borrowed a lot of money to drill, more than their current cash flow can cover," said Cramer. The extended credit could cause a real issue if stocks don't come back up. However, there are positive ripple effects to gasoline that Cramer thinks we cannot forget about. Gasoline is always a large expense for companies that need to get their products on the market. That means the numbers will favor those companies.
    The "Mad Money" host said the savings to the consumer far outweigh the oil producers' losses, even considering the hundreds of thousands of workers employed there.So what is Cramer worried about? The negative ripple effect from overseas. If the collapse of Cyprus could affect the banks in the U.S., then a collapse in oil-dependent Russia certainly could have a large impact. Oil prices dropping are just a symptom to indicate that it is getting worse. That could have a positive effect on the U.S. economy, though. "They sell on their weakness, particularly their currency's weakness regardless of the stocks they're associated with, and they buy our dollar's strength with bonds and stocks." So while Cramer does think there are many downstream repercussions, he still believes it could be time to buy those stocks that are direct beneficiaries to cheap gasoline.
    ---------------------------------------------------------- Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer Cramer says bye-bye to bonds for retirement Never, ever do this with your 401(k) Cramer: Don't invest without 3 things ---------------------------------------------------------- "In the end though, the money flows here, and therefore any decline is buyable after a couple of sessions of weakness," Cramer said. The "Mad Money" host recommends buying stocks that are not so economically sensitive, such as health care, biotech or travel and leisure stocks. The chain reaction to low oil is just too good for Cramer to ignore. Yes, there will be a downside, too, but he thinks that downside is manageable. Now is the time to buy on oil's weakness. Questions for Cramer? Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up! Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - Instagram - Vine Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com 

    end quote from:

    Cramer's spells out oil's worst case scenarios

    And then there are the long term investors to whom the prices of oil just go up and down over the years while still earning dividends on their stocks.


     

    KSBW report on Body Cams worn by Police

    Greenfield is starting to put at 900 dollars each body cams on each of it's police officers to wear to record all events regarding out in the field police work with contact with citizens.

    Salinas and Gonzales and other police departments are also testing Police Body Cams. This is part of the national and possibly international reaction to what is happening in Ferguson as this movement for better communication between citizens and police nationwide and possibly worldwide at this point. If recordings are made of all situations then people afterwords have a better tool hopefully to know what actually happened in court cases in the future.

    The information regarding Greenfield, Gonzales and Salinas and other towns was on KSBW today, December 1st 2014.

    US-led strikes hit IS garrison, 'electronic warfare' unit

    US-led strikes hit IS garrison, 'electronic warfare' unit

    Washington (AFP) - Warplanes from the US-led coalition battling the Islamic State group hit dozens of jihadist vehicles and bases, including an "electronic warfare garrison," in four days of strikes, the US military said Monday.
    AFP

    US-led strikes hit IS garrison, 'electronic warfare' unit

    AFP
    This photo released by the US Navy on October 4, 2014, shows a US Navy F-18E Super Hornet supporting operations against the Islamic State
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    This photo released by the US Navy on October 4, 2014, shows a US Navy F-18E Super Hornet supporting operations against the Islamic State (AFP Photo/Staff Sgt. Shawn Nickel)
    Washington (AFP) - Warplanes from the US-led coalition battling the Islamic State group hit dozens of jihadist vehicles and bases, including an "electronic warfare garrison," in four days of strikes, the US military said Monday.
    Between November 28 and December 1, coalition aircraft and drones bombed targets in Iraq and Syria, where they hit militants besieging the town of Kobane and IS headquarters in Raqa.
    In Raqa, they struck a tank, 14 other vehicles, a jihadist base and what they described as an electronic warfare garrison and a separate "jamming system," US Central Command said.
    Kobane, on Syria's northern border with Turkey, is in the grip of an intense battle between Kurdish militia fighters and IS jihadists.
    This was the scene of 17 of the 27 strikes conducted in Syria over the four-day reporting period, and the US military said seven IS units, two buildings, three tanks and four vehicles were hit.
    Separately, a strike targeted the so-called "Khorasan Group," a network of veteran Al-Qaeda operatives, near Aleppo. No damage report or casualty estimate was given for this strike.
    In Iraq, a further 28 strikes hit IS vehicles, artillery, bases and fighting positions near the towns of Mosul, Hit, Tal Afar, Tikrit and Ramadi.
    In Syria, the US-led campaign is supported by planes and pilots from Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
    In Iraq, the coalition is joined by Australia, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France and the Netherlands.
    The strikes began in Iraq in August after the Islamic State group captured Mosul and launched a lightning offensive that seized swathes of the country's western desert, threating the approaches to Baghdad.
    The campaign was later extended to Syria after President Barack Obama vowed to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the IS threat through strikes and increased support for Iraqi and Kurdish forces.
    View Comments (407)
     end quote from:

    US-led strikes hit IS garrison, 'electronic warfare' unit

    anti-Ferguson Movement spreading nationwide and worldwide

    The problem that occurred in Ferguson has brought up issues regarding the Police State mentality which arose from 9-11 and all the paranoia since then both rightly justified and overblown. Now, there appears to be a push back against police just being too much like soldiers with sub machine guns, shotguns, and armored vehicles. The people are feeling too threatened and possibly rightly so because this has become overblown since 9-11.

    This is the natural pendulum effect of this kind of thing that tends to go in around 20 year cycles. When people are afraid they want the police better armed. When they feel less afraid they don't want their policemen to cut them in two with a machine gun blast from a .50 caliber machine gun like a friend of my mother's was named Bruce in World War II in the Battle of the Bulge.

    So, Police and firemen armed to the teeth by the government in fear of people like Osama Bin Laden might change now.

    Another thing that might also change is that police (and possibly firemen) might be required to have digitally filmed and sound of any altercations they are involved in like most front line soldiers do now too in our military forces on the front lines.

    So, this is all morphing worldwide into something that is questioning police state tactics in all developed countries of the world now and goes beyond race.

    President Obama is creating executive orders for police nationwide to have digital cameras on them during incidents today so both perpetrators and police will have better relationships with the public (hopefully).

    Though one wonders about whether some police might say, "Oh. I forgot to turn on the camera." possible. And if something scary is going on not surprising either under the circumstances. Because most strange situations that officers deal with are completely surprising and unexpected and in the moment.

    However, being trained to turn the camera on might save a lot of lives in the end both police and perpetrators as well as innocent people and bystanders.


    As the problem of Ferguson Grows Nationwide

    Darren Wilson's Testimony

    I had to go to bbc.com to find part of the testimony of Darren Wilson to better understand what the Grand Jury there actually heard. Then also people don't know enough about the laws in which they were restricted by that are basic "Self Defense" laws.

    So, what people aren't being informed of is that there was no other conclusion that the Grand Jury could come to rather than what they did.

    Was this right?

    Brown shouldn't have been shot being an unarmed man. However, he was also using his body as a weapon so the officer was threatened also.

    So, legally Officer Wilson is free and likely will remain so.

    However, the bigger question might be: "Was Officer Wilson properly trained for this particular type of situation?"

    The answer likely is "No!"

    He likely needed to call for backup before he approached Brown.

    Likely Brown would not have died if Officer Wilson had waited for backup. However, Brown might have run away too.

    And the problem was he just robbed a convenience store and intimidated people there. And Officer Wilson saw the Cigarillos he had stolen there.

    Should he have been shot for this? No.

    But, Should Brown have tried to harm the police officer. No.

    Did Brown have any respect for Officer Wilson. No.

    Was he on drugs? Unknown.

    Is Brown now dead. Yes.

    The laws in Missouri need to change along with the training of police officers. They also need to carry cameras and microphones so both police and potential offenders realize whatever is going on will be filmed.

    Even though film might not catch all things going on around the people or inside the people, still it helps keep everyone be more honest and helps the public understand more what was happening right then.



    Flying over the storm coming to West Coast

    I found this to be one of the most remarkable storms I have ever flown through and over. The first thing remarkable was that it was solid clouds (98%) over all of Oregon. Then it was about half clouds all the way down past San Jose where I landed just south of San Francisco. Then there were ice crystal clouds that at times went up to 40,000 feet where at 31,000 feet we were often flying through ice crystal clouds and looked up at ice crystal clouds up to about 41,000 feet.  But, it was always bumpy through those ice crystal clouds. Then there were Clouds also 50 to 100 miles out to sea as far as I could see in many places.

    Pacific Ocean from  weather maps from:
    https://weather.yahoo.com/maps/    This was the Pacific Ocean button at this page.


    Then at the San Jose Airport lobby I saw someone looking at the world weather map and it looked like 300 to 500 miles of clouds stretching out into the Pacific Ocean. This made me think about Atmospheric Rivers like they talk about that likely happened during the Great Noachian Floods of the West Coast from Washington down to California and over as far as Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona and Nevada and I think Idaho too.

    I'm not saying that this WILL happen this year or anything like that. However, it does at this point look a little similar to what was described below that happened in 1862 in California where the State went bankrupt when 1/4 of all homes and farms and lifestock were washed away into the ocean and the Sacramento River was 20 miles wide and the Sacramento River steamer Gem picked men off of Barns and out of trees along the way. And the capitol had to be moved to San Francisco for a couple of years I believe as well. The Governor traveled from Sacramento all the way to San Francisco in a boat.

    The scientists say it began with Atmospheric Rivers of Storms evaporating off the Pacific (likely during an El Nino type of event). Though this year it is supposed to be a mild El Nino. So, anyway we will see what the warmer Pacific Ocean delivers to the West Coast this year.

    However, what is really strange here is when I got off the plane it was 70 Degrees Fahrenheit and 68 degrees at the beach which is very unusual for this time of year because Thanksgiving is traditionally the coldest time of the year here and sometimes it is pretty cold around Halloween too. Not this year.

    So, it reminds me much more of Hawaii in January than it does Northern California in November at all.

    Nov 20, 2014
    The event would be similar to intense California storms which occurred in 1861 and 1862. The name "ARkStorm" means "Atmospheric River (AR) 1000 (k)." The name was created as a way of quantifying the magnitude of west ...
    Feb 26, 2014
    The problem is the 1862 was the first time enough people lived in California after it became a state to record this happening for posterity. But, scientists have discovered this sort of thing happens at least once every 150 to 300 ...
    Jan 23, 2011
    The Great Flood of 1862 or Noachian Deluge was the largest flood in California's recorded history, occurring from December 1861 to January 1862. It was preceded by weeks of continuous rains (or snows in the high ...

    Slew of Storms Begin Along West Coast

    Slew of Storms Begin Along West Coast - AccuWeather

    www.accuweather.com/en/weather...storms...west/2047154
    AccuWeather
    Nov 28, 2012 - The tranquil weather along the West Coast is coming to an abrupt end Wednesday, leading to a stretch of drenching and powerful storms.

    Slew of Storms Begin Along West Coast

    By Dan DePodwin, Meteorologist
    November 28, 2012; 6:00 AM ET
    This story has been updated. For the latest information, consult: "Storms Bring Risk of Flooding, Damage to California."
    The tranquil weather along the West Coast is coming to an abrupt end Wednesday, leading to a stretch of drenching and powerful storms.
    As the first storm in a series pushes eastward, residents from Los Angeles to Portland will need the umbrella on Wednesday.
    After a brief break on Wednesday night, a soaker of a day is in store for Thursday, especially along the coast.
    Enough rain will fall into the weekend to bring flash, urban and small stream flooding.
    It has been a rather wet and stormy month of November in many places from San Francisco to Seattle. Most locations are at or above their normal precipitation for the month and more rain is on the way.
    High pressure in control of the weather over the past several days has led to a return of dry, sunnier weather, but a potent storm system lurks off the coast.
    The persistent flow of storms is expected to continue into the weekend with the heaviest precipitation focused in northern California.
    According to Western Weather Expert Ken Clark, "Some of the mountains in northern California can receive over a foot of rain."
    Rainfall of this magnitude can lead to serious problems including mudslides and debris flows in recent burn areas to flooding along some small rivers.

    With the flow off the Pacific and a lack of cold air to the north, snow levels will remain above pass level. While snowfall will be lacking in many places, the rainfall will not. Flooding can occur in places, especially the Sacramento Valley.
    As with most strong storms from the Pacific Ocean, wind will be an issue along the immediate coast from northern California to Washington and British Columbia. Wind gusts can peak over 75 mph (hurricane force) by Wednesday night and Thursday.
    The weather pattern will not become less stormy until early next week, however less intense storms will still move ashore in the Northwest.
    This story as originally published on Monday, Nov. 26, 2012. 
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    Slew of Storms Begin Along West Coast - AccuWeather