Thursday, February 16, 2012

Were Slaves Better off than many Homeless Today?

Sadly, the answer might be "Yes". For example, slaves usually had a place to stay and food to eat. Often, if you are homeless neither of these things are true. Though if you were a slave you might not have clothes but rather rags, usually you had food and shelter. The word "Homeless" implies no place to live, even though some "Homeless people have vehicles or tents to live in all over the U.S."

As the divide grows ever wider this year as gasoline and food prices increase exponentially, it might be important to consider just how bad off many homeless in the U.S. have it now here in the U.S. and that their plight without homes, clothes, food, transportation or medical care is actually Worse than slaves had it before the Civil War. You might answer back to me that slaves were beaten, raped, drugged, abused, etc.  I think what is happening to children and young adults and older adults who have no place to go in and lock the doors now in many places might be much worse than that today as you read this.

For example, the most you can expect if your unemployment insurance runs out as an adult or child here in the U.S. is around 200 dollars in food stamps for food every month if you can prove that you are a U.S. citizen. That's it! So, if you are a single person and not a mother with children that's all that you can expect until you die which might be soon without medical care, clothes, or shelter.

I can remember at one point, for example, when I was raising 3 teenagers and a baby with my wife and though we were okay financially and had a great place to live with 4 or 5 cars, we still couldn't afford health insurance because of how expensive teenagers and a baby are. I knew something was wrong with my heart because I had had a panic attack that mimicked a heart attack. So, I sought out heart specialists to try to diagnose what was wrong with me. No one would take me as a patient because I had no insurance. I finally gave up realizing no one was going to help me and that I might die. About ten years later I was doing financially very well and had medical insurance and almost died from a heart virus which I would have died from without medical insurance. It isn't just a possibility I would be dead now for 13 years. Because of almost dying for 7 months when I got better I had two colonoscopies because the first one found precancerous polyps. So, I did another one to be sure. Undiagnosed colon cancer is almost always fatal if it isn't treated in time even though it develops very slowly over 10 or more years. So, just because I was well off enough to be able to afford good medical insurance I am alive now at 63.
However, other people who had any of my conditions would have died by 50 or 55 without good medical insurance and good care. This is a given.

So, were slaves better off than many homeless today? I think the answer sadly is "YES".

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Did We Forget About Mutually Assured Destruction?

I found this really interesting article at bbc.co.uk that you might be interested in:
 

How did we forget about mutually assured destruction?


Mushroom cloud from nuclear testing
Fifty years ago this week the idea of mutually assured nuclear destruction was outlined in a major speech. But how did this frightening concept of the Cold War fade from people's psyches?
Today the notion of all-out nuclear war is rarely discussed. There are concerns about Iran and North Korea's nuclear programmes and fears that terrorists might get hold of a nuclear bomb.
But the fear of a war in which the aim is to wipe out the entire population of an enemy has startlingly diminished.
In 1962, the concept of mutually assured destruction started to play a major part in the defence policy of the US. President Kennedy's Secretary of Defense, Robert McNamara, set out in a speech to the American Bar Foundation a theory of flexible nuclear response.
In essence it meant stockpiling a huge nuclear arsenal. In the event of a Soviet attack the US would have enough nuclear firepower to survive a first wave of nuclear strikes and strike back. The response would be so massive that the enemy would suffer "assured destruction".
Thus the true philosophy of nuclear deterrence was established. If the other side knew that initiating a nuclear strike would also inevitably lead to their own destruction, they would be irrational to press the button.

Arms race between Soviet Union/Russia and the US since 1962

Nuclear
warheads (000s) CLICKABLE
*The US line only includes warheads in the Department of Defense stockpile, which was declassified in May 2010. Several thousand additional retired but intact warheads are awaiting dismantling, probably 3,500-4,500 as of August 2010.
Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
In the past, wars had been fought by defeating your opponent on the battlefield by superior use of force. But MAD was a radical departure that trumped the conventional view of war.
The age of MAD heralded a new fear, with citizens knowing that they could be annihilated within a matter of minutes at the touch of a button several thousands of miles away.
"The central thing was the public had no control," says Dr Christopher Laucht, a lecturer in British history at Leeds University. "You were at the mercy of political decision makers. Apart from the fear that one side would do something stupid, there was also the fear of technology and the question of 'what if an accident happened'."

The arms race

Mask with mushroom cloud reflected in eyepieces, Thinkstock photo
  • US dropped first atom bombs on Hiroshima on August 6 1945, and three days later on Nagasaki
  • Estimated death toll between 150,000 and 250,000
  • It took the USSR until 1949 to explode their own test bomb
  • Resulting arms race peaked in 1986 with global nuclear warheads numbering more than 69,000
  • Arms race ended in 1991 with fall of the USSR
Eight months after McNamara's speech the notion of MAD was almost put to the test by the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the end both superpowers gave ground and the problem was averted but mankind had never come so close to doomsday.
Following a period of Cold War detente in the 1970s, tension rose again in the 1980s. By this point the Soviet Union had many more warheads, and it was commonly said that there were enough nuclear arms on Earth to wipe the planet out several times.
The fear of impending attack became a part of everyday conversation. Children speculated in the playground about the first signs of a nuclear attack - hair and fingernails falling out - and whether one could survive a nuclear winter.
In 1983 there were a number of Russian false alarms. The Soviet Union's early warning system mistakenly picked up a US missile coming into USSR airspace. In the same year, Nato's military planning operation Able Archer led some Russian commanders to conclude that a Nato nuclear launch was imminent.
A string of films and TV series in the 1980s - from WarGames, Threads, and When the Wind Blows - reflected these fears.
On the set of Stanley Kubrick's Dr Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb On the set of Stanley Kubrick's Dr Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
Sometimes the black humour emanated from unlikely places. In 1984 President Ronald Reagan famously said in a radio soundcheck: "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."
Cuba protest in 1962 Protesters in Khrushchev and Kennedy masks in 1962
The authorities tried to offer reassurance. In the UK a famous public information campaign Protect and Survive gave people advice on how to build a nuclear shelter. It was later satirised by When the Wind Blows, which portrayed an elderly couple building their shelter and perishing in the nuclear aftermath.

"In the Cold War there was a small risk of utter nuclear catastrophe," says Paul Rogers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University.
Today the risk is not so much armageddon but a "slippery slope" of proliferation, he says. North Korea is thought to have around 10 warheads, Rogers notes, while Iran is thought to be close to a nuclear bomb.
Some have speculated Saudi Arabia could follow if Iran succeeds and it's been suggested that Israel already has more than 100 warheads.

The deterrent effect?

In the National Review, Clifford D May writes: "During the Cold War, the United States adopted a strategic doctrine called MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction. The logic behind it was both perverse and compelling: So long as we were vulnerable to missile attack by the Soviets, and so long as the Soviets were vulnerable to missile attack by us, neither side would benefit by attacking first - on the contrary, a devastating retaliation would be assured. Assuming that both we and the Soviets were rational, the result would be a stand-off, stability, and peaceful coexistence.
"Veterans of the Cold War, still influential in the foreign-policy establishment and the Obama administration, believe that if this kind of deterrence worked then, it can work now.
"Missile-defence advocates - I list myself among them - counter that MAD is an idea whose time has come and gone."
The most serious stand-off today is not the US and Russia but the prospect of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in which "tens of millions would die", Rogers suggests. And the danger in any of these regional disputes is that the US and Russia get sucked in and what began as a war between two neighbours goes global.
"The fear of nuclear war has diminished partly because the risk has receded significantly with the end of the Cold War," says Nick Bostrum, director of Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute. "But another factor might be simple changes in risk fashion - it becoming more popular recently to worry about global warming, for example."
More immediate worries are terrorist attack, pandemic disease, and economic meltdown.
Robert Harris in his recent novel The Fear Index examined the modern anxiety that fuses the threat of powerful technology with unbridled financial markets.
The main character, who runs a hedge fund, remarks: "Fear is driving the world as never before... The rise in market volatility, in our opinion, is a function of digitalisation, which is exaggerating human mood swings by the unprecedented dissemination of information via the internet."
These are modern fears that John F Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev, leading the superpowers at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, would struggle to comprehend.
But the end of the Cold War hasn't removed the nuclear warheads. Relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated in recent years. China, whose nuclear programme is little understood in the West, is doubling its military spending. India and Pakistan remains a potential flashpoint. So why don't people fear nuclear war as they used to?
For many analysts the world is now a less stable place than it was during the Cold War. And all the major geopolitical confrontations still revolve around nuclear weapons, says Dr Nick Ritchie, lecturer in international security at the University of York.
"At least several hundred American and Russian nuclear missiles remain on 'hard alert' capable of being launched within minutes. Even if that isn't necessarily the policy or intent, the systems and practices remain in place."
The ghost of MAD remains even if people would rather not think about it.

end quote from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17026538

I think it simply is not possible to understand what it was like to live from the 1950s through about 1990 or so when the Berlin Wall fell to understand what life was really like unless you understand what it was like to be expecting all of Russia, North America, Europe and China and everything and everyone all these places to be turned into dust all at once. Or expecting (if you survived) to live one day in a post Apocalyptic nightmare every day knowing that it was not "IF" but "When".

When was the only relevant question. Nothing else really mattered until the Berlin Wall Fell and the Soviet Union Collapsed. Even people in Russia were relieved because even if economically things weren't the best at least mutually assured destruction was over.

I must say, living every day as if it was your last was pretty common in young people under 30 from the 1950s until the 1990s when things finally calmed down for one decade before it all went to hell again in 2001  on 9-11. So, understanding the angst, terror and fear in everyone from the 1930s until the 1990s might be the most important thing to understand about people who lived through these times. And Yes, there were always people who were unrealistic and lived in a fairy tale as well during those times. These days, in comparison there is much less to worry about relatively speaking. The only consolation for all of us then was that a nuclear apocalyptic death where everyone turned to dust at once would likely be quick. 

During the 1971 Earthquake because it went on for so long I began to believe I was in a Nuclear Blast. It was one of the most terrifying experiences of my life in this sense for several minutes:

1971 San Fernando earthquake - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


 

 


I wrote something called: "Death Metal: An Apocalyptic Story 

because I believe if it actually came to pass that this story is actually more realistic about what someone partially sane would actually do to take over a country because Mutually assured destruction is basically world suicide and not logical in any way.

What I find interesting is that setting off a 100 megaton hydrogen bomb at 100 miles up is similar to what would actually happen if oil stopped flowing worldwide for any reason, except that oil, if it stopped flowing worldwide wouldn't take out 1/3 to 1/2 of the population of that country in the first month to 6 months like the EMP of a 100 megaton hydrogen bomb going off 100 miles up  would. But, the chaos and transition to wind power, solar power and horses and bicycles and horse carts and carriages would come directly from both occurrences.

 

Where do the one percent live?

So, which U.S. cities have the most ultra-high net worth individuals?
1. New York

Photo: Getty ImagesUHNW population: 7,270

Although it may be no surprise the nation’s most populous city is home to the most UHNW individuals, this segment is “vastly overrepresented in New York,” says Wealth-X. While about 13 percent of the UHNW population live in New York, only 6 percent of the country live in the area, demonstrating that the city is an attractive location for extremely wealthy people.

As an international center of finance, New York’s Wall Street attracts and produces high-net-worth individuals, and the city’s cost of living, which is the highest in the country, according to Mercer Consulting, tends to skew the population to the wealthy side of the spectrum. The wealthiest New Yorkers include Wall Street titan Carl Ichan, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, real estate mogul Donald Trump and members of the Tisch family, who are co-owners of the New York Giants.

2. Los Angeles

Photo: VisionsofAmerica | Joe Sohm | Photodisc | Getty ImagesUHNW population: 4,350

The most populous city in California also boasts the West Coast’s largest population of UHNW individuals. Although Los Angeles is possibly best known for its entertainment industry, the city is also a shipping hub and is home to companies including Occidental Petroleum, Reliance Steel and Health Net, along with many other smaller firms. Billionaires associated with the Los Angeles area include media moguls David Geffen and Sumner Redstone, businessman Kirk Kerkorian and director Steven Spielberg.

3. San Francisco

Photo: Getty ImagesUHNW population: 4,230

San Francisco has historically been a city where people can strike it rich. The California Gold Rush turned San Francisco into the financial center of the West in the 1800s, while nearby Silicon Valley continues to produce cutting-edge companies and mint new billionaires into the 21st century, often supported by San Francisco’s venture capitalists.

Among the largest companies in the San Francisco Bay Area are Hewlett-Packard, Wells Fargo, McKesson and Facebook. The Facebook IPO alone is likely to create approximately 900 millionaires and billionaires, but has already produced billionaire Mark Zuckerberg, who lives in Palo Alto. Also associated with the area are Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page as well as financier George Roberts, engineer Ray Dolby and Riley Bechtel of the privately held Bechtel Corp.

4. Chicago

UHNW population: 2,550

The third-most-populous city in the United States is the fourth-most-populous for UHNW individuals. Chicago is a major financial center and home to major financial and futures exchanges, including the Chicago Stock Exchange, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Major companies in Chicago include the CME Group, Boeing, Groupon, MillerCoors, United Airlines and RR Donnelley. Some of the billionaires that call Chicago home are private-equity titan Sam Zell, media mogul Oprah Winfrey, former CEO of Wrigley William Wrigley Jr., and founder of Morningstar Joe Mansueto.

5. Washington
Photo: Robert Clare | Taxi | Getty ImagesUHNW population: 2,300

The nation’s capital is also a magnet for high-net-worth individuals. Among Washington-area billionaires are David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group; Steven and Mitchell Rales of the Danaher Corp.; and Redskins owner Daniel Snyder. With approximately 5.6 million people living within the Washington metro area, which includes parts of Maryland and Virginia, one in every 2,435 residents is an UHNW individual, according to numbers provided by Wealth-X.

6. Houston

Photo: Getty ImagesUHNW population: 2,250

With a well-established oil and gas industry and a level of annual production that is greater than the GDP of Austria ($384 billion versus $376 billion), it is no wonder  Houston has a large number of ultra-high net worth individuals. In the Houston metro area that means one in every 2,643 people is worth over $30 million.

Some of Houston’s richest people include Kinder Morgan CEO Richard Kinder, fund manager Fayez Sarofim and Houston Texans owner Robert McNair. The city is also the home to several major companies, including ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Sysco and Halliburton.

7. Dallas

Photo: VisionsofAmerica | Joe Sohm | PhotodiscUHNW population: 1,855

With an UHNW population that nearly doubles that of Atlanta, Dallas is home to 1,855 individuals worth at least $30 million, according to Wealth-X. The Dallas area is home to major companies including AT&T, Dean Foods, Texas Instruments and Southwest Airlines. Some of the richest residents include billionaire and former presidential candidate H. Ross Perot, oil magnate Ray Lee Hunt and leveraged buyout billionaire Harold Simmons.

8. Atlanta

UHNW population: 960

In the Atlanta metro area, approximately one out of every 5,480 residents has a net worth of over $30 million, according to numbers from Wealth-X and the U.S. Census bureau. Several major organizations are headquartered in the city, including Coca-Cola, Turner Broadcasting, The Home Depot and Delta Airlines. The city is home to the world’s largest airline hub and functions as a major source of economic activity for the Southeast. Atlanta also hosted the 1996 Olympics, which created an economic boom  for the city.

Among the super-rich who call Atlanta home are Anne Cox Chambers of Cox Enterprises, S. Truett Cathy of Chick fil-A and Bernard Marcus, co-founder of The Home Depot.

9. Boston
Photo: Steve Dunwell | Photographer's Choice | Getty ImagesUHNW population: 890

With 890 UHNW individuals living in Boston, 1.5 percent of the country’s UHNW population lives in the region, which is about on par with the metro area’s overall population, accounting for approximately 1.4 percent of the nation’s people.

Boston’s billionaire residents include Abigail Johnson and Edward C. Johnson of Fidelity, co-founders of Boston Scientific John Abele and Peter Nicholas, Jack Manning of Boston Capital and Arthur Demoulas of Demoulas Market Basket.
[More from CNBC.com: 10 Richest U.S. Presidential Candidates]

10. Seattle
Photo: Danita Delimont | Gallo Images | Getty ImagesUHNW population: 885

Seattle is the largest city in the Northwest and is 10th on the list of cities with the largest UHNW population, according to Wealth-X. Among some of the richest people in the Seattle area are Microsoft co-founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Starbucks founder Howard Schultz. Major companies in and around Seattle include a number of national names, from Amazon.com, Microsoft and Starbucks to Zumiez, Dendreon and Plum Creek Timber.
end quote from: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-the--one-percent--live.html


The Real Price of Democracy

I think people who live in places other than Europe and North America, and Australia and New Zealand often might have unrealistic expectations about Democracy. So, I think new nations in the middle east and other places trying to obtain a workable democratic government might want to look at the models of India and more recently, Iraq. I think India is a better example because of Ghandi. Ghandi took a non-violent approach that only worked because he was fighting English people for democracy who also had fought hundreds of years for their own democracies in England, the U.S., Canada, and Australia already. So, at a certain point the English in India could not deny the rights of people who just wanted democracy in the end like their own people had already fought and died for in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand. However, if people are fighting other people for democracy who have never known democracy in their own lives this could be very problematic simply because of precedent. So, for example, people trying to create democracies in the middle east on their own might take 10, 20, 30, 50 or even 100 years to create a long lasting and effective democracy.

Even if you look at what happened in India, for example, which is the world's largest democracy, people wise, and study history, you can see how many died and continued to die even through the 1950s and early 1960s while Pakistan and Bangladesh separated from India to form their own democracies. So, in the middle east, likely history might be more like what happened to India, Pakistan and Bangledesh than any other result in the future.

The first goal of democracy has to be to stop the major parties warring with each other. Bloodshed has to cease (at least out in the open) for democratic progress to move forward. Also, rumors (especially ones that are lies) can cause mayhem and death as well and derail democratic progress too. So, the more educated cool headed people there are in a country, the more likely a democracy can prevail. So, the first goal is to replace physical bloodletting with verbal confrontations without bloodletting. Once there can be enough politeness and gentlemanlyness and gentlewomanlyness in a country, then democracy might prevail. But as long as there is open physical warfare going on, democracies have no hope of working long term until major bloodletting can be stopped among all the major parties of that democracy.

American Express default rate falls again in Jan.

As you will see in the following article American Express Default rate went from 3.8% last year to 2.2% presently. This is very good news for the economy because this means that there are less middle to upper class people having financial problems. This is actually very good news for the whole economy and is a sign of potential growth ahead. The only two major factors that could harm this good news are the increasing price of gasoline and the European problems with Greece which it looks like might have the "Worst Post War Depression yet seen"(except for the Soviet Union which went into a 44% decline when it ended and became Russia again). So, it is presently predicted that Greece will likely suffer a 25% to 30% reduction in Growth and is already in a 14% decline. Changing currencies might be the only way for people there to reduce their debts in real terms in order to have a chance at recovery for the common man and woman in Greece.

Here is the encouraging article regarding American Express:

American Express default rate falls again in Jan.

American Express lowest-in-industry defaults decline further in January; late payments steady

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
AXP51.70-0.26

NEW YORK (AP) -- American Express Co. on Wednesday reported that the rate its customers defaulted on their cards fell again in January.
The New York-based company continues to have the lowest charge-off rate in the industry, mainly because its customer base is more affluent and because it maintains tight control on problem accounts.
Amex also reported that late payments remained steady for the month.
DEFAULT: American Express wrote off 2.2 percent of balances on an annualized basis for the month. That was down slightly from 2.3 percent of balances in December. The rate is well below the 3.8 percent charge-off rate a year ago.
LATE PAYMENTS: Payments on 1.4 percent of balances were delinquent, or late by 30 days or more, in January. That was unchanged from the prior month. The delinquency rate was 2.1 percent in January 2011.
PEAK RATES: Amex's worst month for charge-offs came in April 2009, when they hit 10.4 percent. Card companies typically write off loans after they are six months past due.
Delinquencies reached their highest point in February 2009 at 5.3 percent. The figure is an indicator for what to expect for defaults in coming months.
American Express shares slipped 30 cents to $51.66 in afternoon trading. end quote from:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-express-default-rate-falls-180240352.html

One Alternative to the Peak Water Problem

There was a friend of mine who was a Catholic Priest who was also an attorney and had at one time been District Attorney for Santa Cruz County. He had started his own church without getting defrocked and was at about 200 IQ and spoke about 20 languages and read publications from all over the world in all these languages. He was a very interesting fellow to talk to. One day he wanted to show me his home where he had converted a cement septic tank under this home into a place to grow Rainbow Trout. It seems the rainbow trout were now a foot or two long in the water which came from his downspouts off his house. The water first went into old wine barrels and then secondarily went into the now clean septic tanks that the rainbow trout lived in. The rainbow trout ate all the bugs and algae that gathered on or near the now clean converted cement septic tank and he also caught some of the water in the wine barrels before it went to the next stage for drinking water that he boiled before he used it for making tea and for drinking. What was interesting to me was that here was a system for people to not only grow their own fish but to have their own drinking water just from water running off their downspouts off their roofs every time it rained or there was a heavy dew or fog. In addition in his backyard he had chickens and then he used the chicken manure on his organic garden in which he grew vegetables for eating and he also ate the organic eggs from his free range chickens in his backyard. Like I said he was a very interesting fellow who often took people in his church on tours to the standing stones in Europe on which he was an expert and tours to the Holy land on which he was also an expert. However, these days during peak water I think his ideas regarding water have much more merit for each one of us with a house and downspouts that could be run into wine barrels or other containers so that we could gather water to use for various purposes including drinking if we boiled it first. In this way each of us that wants to becomes more self sufficient can do that. However, there is one caveat. Your water will taste a little like whatever your roofing material is. So, likely the best roofing material would be metal or cement or pottery tiles so your water is more conducive to be wanting to drink it even after you boil it. However, if you are only watering your gardens or growing fish with it likely it would matter less as long as your vegetables, plants, or fish can survive it.

Another thought: Even if one lived in a desert where it almost never rained it would be possible to recycle one's water and likely get about 80% to 90% for re-use. I was thinking that if your purifying units were all gravity feed and you used solar power to lift gray water to run it through filtration units similar to the ones used in spacecraft to recycle water one could use gray water many times by just refiltering it. So, the only new water likely one would need to add into the system would be for drinking and possibly for washing dishes. Most other water could be recycled effectively for washing clothes, toilets and to some degree even watering plants. If you were growing things hydroponically, even most of that water could also be reclaimed sent up slowly through solar powered water pumps into a tank and by falling through a gravity feed filtration system be filtered enough for most non-drinking or non-washing dishes types of uses. In this way by using solar power to recycle water slowly one could reclaim about 80% to 90% of all water used in a similar way that people do on the space station.

Valentine's Day

I had been sick and on my 2nd course of antibiotics because I have seen what this virus can do to people who don't take it seriously, like a friend of mine who (temporarily?) lost 90% of his hearing over 2 months and is still having to wear a drain on one ear. So, I went on antibiotics early, first zithromax, and now ammoxicillin. I usually don't like taking antibiotics much except for zithromax which has saved my life more than once but his time I didn't see another useful choice. So, after being sick for 2 weeks I figured I owed it to my wife who took care of me to push through and celebrate Valentine's Day with her. She had rented a really nice room over looking the Bay and was planning for us to go to a movie. Originally, we were going to go see "the vow", but I realized, being sick, the vow was a little much for me. So, I got us to go to "This Means War" which is a comedy Drama with Reese Witherspoon and Chris Pine and an English Actor. It was a very good choice and it was a Sneak Preview so there was a very full and enthusiastic audience. So, we had a really great time. After the movie we went to a really nice hotel above the 3rd floor where we could easily see the bay and the sunrise which is always nice. Happy Valentine's Day.