Friday, February 4, 2011

The Leaderless Revolution in Cairo

The main problem with the revolution in Cairo and throughout Egypt is that it is a "Leaderless" revolution with the only group that is organized enough to actually take charge of the country likely to be like a Sunni version of Hezbollah which was who Israel was fighting in Lebanon the most recently. So, I think that the Muslim Brotherhood would have no real reason ideologically to support the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt brokered by Sadat, Begin and Jimmy Carter I believe. This would make it necessary for there to be a war at some point between Israel and Egypt. One of the most embarrassing things about this is for the U.S. is that the U.S. has been training and educating the Egyptian army from officer level upward here in the United States for 30 years or more. This is going to be a real problem if the Muslim Brotherhood which I would equate with being a Sunni Hezbollah takes over. Likely the only way this could happen is with Mubarak dead. He pledged this last week that he would never leave Egypt and planned to die there. As an ex-General of Egypt's armies I think he means just that. Therefore, I think we will see some major bloodshed before this is over. I hope it is not comparable to what we just saw in Iraq or Afghanistan.

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