Sunday, December 8, 2013

Arctic thaw tied to European, U.S. heatwaves and downpours

Arctic thaw tied to European, U.S. heatwaves and downpours: study

By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle OSLO (Reuters) - A thaw of Arctic ice and snow is linked to worsening summer heatwaves and downpours thousands of miles south in Europe, the United States and other areas, underlying the scale of the threat posed by global warming, scientists said on…
Reuters






Arctic thaw tied to European, U.S. heatwaves and downpours: study


Reuters
By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle 5 hours ago


By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle
OSLO (Reuters) - A thaw of Arctic ice and snow is linked to worsening summer heatwaves and downpours thousands of miles south in Europe, the United States and other areas, underlying the scale of the threat posed by global warming, scientists said on Sunday.
Their report, which was dismissed as inconclusive by some other experts, warned of increasingly extreme weather across "much of North America and Eurasia where billions of people will be affected".
The study is part of a drive to work out how climate change affects the frequency of extreme weather, from droughts to floods. Governments want to know the trends to plan everything from water supplies to what crops to plant.
But the science of a warming Arctic is far from settled.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, experts in China and the United States said they could not conclusively say the Arctic thaw caused more extreme weather, or vice versa.
But they said they had found evidence of a relationship between the two. Rising temperatures over thawing snow on land and sea ice in the Arctic were changing atmospheric pressure and winds, the report said.
The changes slowed the eastward movement of vast meandering weather systems and meant more time for extreme weather to develop - such as a heatwave in Russia in 2010, droughts in the United States and China in 2011 and 2012, or heavy summer rains that caused floods in Britain in 2012, the paper added.
"The study contributes to a growing body of evidence that ... the melting Arctic has wide-ranging implications for people living in the middle latitudes," lead author Qiuhong Tang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences told Reuters.
VANISHING ICE
Sea ice in the Arctic shrank to a record low in 2012 and the U.N.'s panel of climate scientists says it could almost vanish in summers by 2050 with rising greenhouse gas emissions.
But some scientists said other factors, including the usual vagaries of weather or changing sea temperatures, may explain some recent extremes rather than changes in the Arctic.
"The jury is still very much out," James Screen, an expert at Exeter University in England, said of efforts to see if there is a link between a melting Arctic and extremes further south in the northern hemisphere.
Some evidence in Sunday's study was "plausible ... but far from conclusive," he said, adding that some of the data were not statistically significant and might be random variations.
"For people on the streets, what really matters is whether the extremes are changing or not. But from the scientific perspective we want to understand why," he said. Better understanding is vital to make reliable predictions.
In September, the U.N.'s panel of climate scientists raised the probability that most global warming since 1950 has a human cause - mostly gases released by burning fossil fuels - to 95 percent from 90 in a previous assessment in 2007.
James Overland, of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said many extremes studied were in the past decade, too short to know for sure if they were enhanced by Arctic ice and snow melt or not.
"Sceptics remain unconvinced that Arctic/mid-latitude linkages are proven, and this work will do little to change their viewpoint," he wrote in a comment in Nature Climate Change.
Still, he said there was a high potential for an Arctic influence, given the outlook for a further thaw.
(Reporting By Alister Doyle)

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 end quote from:

Arctic thaw tied to European, U.S. heatwaves and downpours: study

I'm also thinking that the arctic blast since last week as well as the arctic blast that hit Siberia on down through Europe and into Israel, Syria and Iraq where it snowed in Israel and Rome is also part of the same weather phenomenon we are dealing with right now caused by polar melting out by October all the way to the North Pole. 

The arctic blast that hit Israel and Rome and all of Europe I'm referring to hit last year. Here it is from Wikipedia. I'm thinking that the U.S. and Canada might be in for a winter like this one. However, it could be only this bad this week. However, from living in Mt. Shasta in the 1970s and 1980s off and on until 1992. Often when cold weather comes it makes more cold weather because the air and ground tend to act like refrigerators and hold the cold or (absence of heat) and make more cold weather and then more and more cold weather sort of like a self fulfilling prophecy.

begin quote

Early 2012 European cold wave

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Early 2012 European cold wave
300px
Extreme minimum temperature 4 to 11 February 2012, computer generated contours, based on preliminary data.
Formed January 27, 2012
Dissipated February 17, 2012
Lowest temperature −39.2 °C (−38.6 °F) (February 2, Kuusamo, Finland)
Damage $660 million (2012 USD)[1]
Fatalities 1,040+[1]
Areas affected Europe and North Africa
The Early 2012 European cold wave was a deadly cold wave that started on January 27, 2012 and brought snow and freezing temperatures to much of the European continent. There were 824+ deaths reported.[1] Particularly low temperatures hit several Eastern and Northern European countries, reaching as low as −39.2 °C (−38.6 °F) in Finland. The heaviest snow was recorded in the Balkan region.

Countries affected

Effects

Eastern, Northern and Western Europe


Land surface temperature anomaly of Europe between 25 January and 1 February 2012

A map of the land temperature anomaly in Europe between 29 January and 4 February 2012.
The northern half of Europe was affected primarily by greater cold and – except for a period of early snow – low precipitation. The snowfall of the third week of January was up to 1 m (3.3 ft) of snow in a few days, particularly affecting Slovakia and Bulgaria. On Sunday, January 22, heavy snowfall in northern Námestovo caused an ice rink to collapse under the weight of the snow.
In Kuusamo, in the hills of eastern Finland, temperatures of −39.2 °C (−38.6 °F) were recorded on February 2, the lowest temperatures in Europe. The village Kvilda in Sumava (Czech Republic) recorded temperatures of −38.1 °C (−36.6 °F) on February 3, the lowest temperatures in Central Europe.
Ukraine was especially affected by the onset of cold weather,[2][3] at the end of January, the temperatures fell below −30 °C (−22 °F), at the time the snow was at least 30 cm (12 in), on February 3, over 100 cm (3.3 ft), and by the end of the first week of February, over 130 cm (4.3 ft) was recorded. The Ukrainian government announced that many of the public safety issues it was encountering were related to alcohol abuse in the context of the dangerously cold weather.
The Baltic states also recorded temperatures down to −30 °C (−22 °F). Moscow announced that, since the beginning of the last week of January, night temperatures ranged down to −25 °C (−13 °F).
The Mediterranean coast of southern France was covered in deep snow by the end of January. Corsica was buried under 40 cm (1.3 ft) of snow, and at times there were as many as 14,000 homes without electricity.
In early February, heavy snow pile-ups hit the Helsinki region. Belgium also was surprised by the snowfall. At the same time, the snow reached the British Isles, causing interruptions at London Heathrow Airport where up to 10 cm (3.9 in) of snow impeded many scheduled flights.
In Germany, the Elbe downstream of Magdeburg became impassable due to ice, as well as the entire Elbe–Havel Canal and parts of the Rhine–Main–Danube Canal. Supplies had to be sent to the island of Spiekeroog via aircraft for the second time in its history, as the ferry service was canceled on February 7, 2012 due to heavy ice conditions in the North Sea. On Lake Constance, the catamaran speed-boat traffic between Friedrichshafen and Konstanz had to be canceled due to the icing over of the port in Konstanz on February 7 until further notice. This port hadn't been frozen to such an extent since the winter of 1962–1963.

Mediterranean Sea, Danube and Balkan

Italy, the Balkans and the Danube were in addition to cold weather also affected by heavy snowfall; Erfrierungsopfer also reported the majority of countries of this area, as well as extensive traffic delays and economic consequences. The cold wave covered the Maghreb in the western Mediterranean, as well as the Aegean, the Turkey and the Levant in the eastern part of the Mediterranean area. On Bologna fell 94 cm (37 in) of snow between 1 and 12 February with a maximum height on the ground of 65 cm (26 in); 190 cm (75 in) fell on Cesena (30m above see level) with maximum height of 120 cm (47 in) and 326 cm (128 in) fell on Urbino where the snow accumulation on the ground reached 2 m (79 in) deep. Even Turkey, Spain and Portugal fell to low temperatures in early February, the temperature sometimes considerably below the freezing point. Snow fell in Mallorca for the first time since 1956, and even in Algiers, Algeria, in southern Tunisia in Gabès. In Italy, there were extensive power outages (up to 120,000 people were without electricity) as well as traffic congestion, and the Army had to intervene for snow removal: in Rome, where snow had fallen before the weekend of February 4–5, it was almost impossible to drive. Until the second week of February reigned throughout northern and central Italy tiefwinterliche conditions, particularly in Marche, in Umbria, the Abruzzi and Emilia-Romagna. In Rome, after the snowfalls of February 11–12, 2,000 passengers had to spend the night in Fiumicino airport.

Europe

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, this year's winter was one of the coldest and snowiest in the last 100 years. The snow depth in the capital Sarajevo reached 111 cm (43.7 inches) and in Mostar 86 cm (34 inches). On the fifth of February in Sarajevo, 5 people died because of cold weather in 3 hours. Snow and low temperatures stayed persistent until the month of March when drought hit the country. In March, not even 1 liter of precipitation fell throughout the whole country. In Sarajevo snow cover stayed until April. The cold wave killed anywhere from 15 to 50 people.

Record snowfall in Sarajevo
View of a street in Bucharest on February 13
  •  Belarus – Early in the day on January 30, subzero temperatures spread rapidly, data accessed by AccuWeather showed.[4] According to meteoinfo.by, on the night of 11 through February 12, temperatures in the Brahin Raion dropped to −34.3 °C (−29.7 °F). According to National Agency BielTA, from January 1, more than 180 people died in domestic fires. Total number of casualties remain unknown.[5]
  •  Bulgaria – Over 1 meter (3.3 feet) of snow fell in the mountainous areas of the country. Heavy snow fell also in many major cities. The snow depth reached as much as 63 cm (24.8 inches) in Vidin, 61 cm (24 inches) in Vratsa and 49 cm (19.3 inches) in the capital Sofia. Temperatures dropped under –20 °C (–4 °F) in many parts of Bulgaria, with a low reading of −30 °C (−22 °F) in Knezha. The wall of the Ivanovo dam in southern Haskovo Province broke, flooding the village of Biser and killing 11 people, as well as inflicting serious infrastructural damage. At least 16 other deaths were reported throughout the country, due to the arctic temperatures.
  •  Croatia – As of February 6, 3 people died,[6] with concerns of many villages being cut off, especially near Vrgorac.
  •  Cyprus – On February 29, snow was reported as falling in the capital, Nicosia.
  •  Denmark – On the morning of February 5, the lowest temperature in Denmark for 25 years was recorded in Odense with -23,1 °C .
  •  France – On February 6, BBC News reported 4 deaths, and 43 regions in France on high alert for 'exceptional' weather conditions. On February 11, the Six Nations Championship game between France and Ireland, was postponed shortly before kick-off, due to the pitch freezing, as temperatures plummeted beneath −10 °C (14 °F).

Piazza del Popolo, Rome under the snowfall
  •  Italy – Rome experienced a rare intense snowfall, and many of Venice's canals have frozen over, while very heavy snowfalls (up to 2m/7 ft in a couple of weeks) occurred in the Apennines.[7] On February 6, the Italian rail network may face legal action, due to many passengers being stranded on trains over the weekend. Temperatures plummeted to −21 °C (−6 °F) on February 7, in the north of the country. At least 54 people have died[8]

Tisza River near Szeged, Hungary
  •  Greece – Many homeless people froze to death and a dam on the Evros river burst due to pressure. Temperatures also plummered to −25 °C (−13 °F) in the northwest city of Florina.
  •  Latvia – The lowest temperature was recorded at the Strenči meteorological station, hitting −34.2 °C (−29.6 °F) on February 5.[9] For several days not a single meteorological station reported a temperature above −20 °C (−4 °F). Because of the severe cold wave, some regions in Latvia experienced a shortage of power supply,[9] an increased number of domestic fires were reported.
  •  Malta – The lowest temperature at grass level was measured at Zebbug. The temperature was that of −2.4 °C (27.7 °F). It was measured on Wednesday, February 8. An air temperature of 4.0 °C (39.2 °F) was also measured during one of a series of hailstorms which occurred during the month.
  •  Netherlands – A cold wave was registered in the Netherlands, with a low of −18.9 °C (−2.0 °F) in De Bilt, the lowest recorded since 1956,[10] and a national low of −22.8 °C (−9.0 °F) in Lelystad, the lowest temperature recorded all over the Netherlands since 1985.[11] A homeless man was frozen to death on February 2,.[12] People have been ice-skating on the canals of Amsterdam.
  •  Poland – Early in the day on January 30, subzero cold spread widely over Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and eastern Poland, data accessed by AccuWeather.com showed.[4] From the January 1, 2012, 103 people froze to death. Fire and Rescue Service reported 360 domestic fires during one night (February 11–12), and almost 12000 fire accidents this year. Reports state 107 people died in flames with 550 more suffer various degrees of burns. Due to carbon monoxide poisoning 24 people died.[13]

Winter of 2012 in south of Bucharest, Romania
  •  Romania – At least 86 people have died.[14] In some areas, the bitter cold was followed by heavy snow. The snow depth in the capital Bucharest reach 60 cm (23.5 inches).[4] On February 11, the Danube was reportedly completely frozen over.

Winter in Volgograd Oblast, Russia

Heavy snowfall in Novi Sad, Serbia.
  •  Serbia – Sjenica set −32 °C (−26 °F), early on the morning of February 9. In Serbia at least 50,000 villagers have been trapped by heavy snow and blizzards in mountainous areas.[16] Gas supplies are running low.[17] On February 8, electricity consumption broke a record, standing at 162.67 million kWh, so the government mandated a shutdown of all non-essential industries and decorative lightning.[18] The death toll has risen to 20.[17]
  •  Spain – Palma, Majorca registered the most important snow episode[clarification needed] since 1956.[19] In Catalonia – Heavy snowfall and winds of 175 km/h (109 mph) were reported in Portbou as temperatures dropped to −23 °C (−9 °F).
  •  Ukraine – More than 100 homeless people have died as temperatures dropped as low as −35 °C (−31 °F).[16] Gas supplies were running low.[7] The cold led to more than 600 people being treated for frostbite and hypothermia within three days, according to officials. Nearly 24,000 people sought shelter during the same three days, the BBC reported. In western Ukraine, Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk dipped to −28 °C (−18 °F).[4] Ukrainian health officials stated (on February 16) 151 people had died because of the cold,[20] with alcohol regularly a contributing factor,[20] the highest number in Europe.[2]
  •  United Kingdom – The Met Office issued a severe weather warning as heavy snow fell across much of the country on February 4, disrupting roads and flights.[21] Temperatures fell to −11.8 °C (10.8 °F) in the early hours of February 8,.[22] More heavy snow fell overnight in England on February 9–10. On the night of February 10–11, the temperature in England[specify] fell to −15.6 °C (3.9 °F), the coldest temperatures since Boxing Day in 2010.[23] Northern Ireland was the only place in the UK that wasn't badly affected by the cold wave.

Africa

  •  Algeria – The north of the country awoke to a blanket of snow, 28 of 48 departments of the country have had snow, including Algiers and even parts of Sahara Desert.[24] Snow covered Algerian lower cities at least for several days, meanwhile higher cities like Sétif (1100m amsl) where cover by snow for weeks. Sétif registered up to 70 cm (28 in) of snow,[25][26] some villages like Bousselam registered up to 2.5 m (98 in)[27][28] The average temperature at this particular time of year being 9 °C (48 °F).
As February 9, more than 80 people died because of the cold wave (Forty-four people died during the first week of the cold wave): thirty of them were killed in car accidents caused by icy roads,[29][30] and 14 from asphyxiation due to gas fumes.
The following cities recorded snowfall:
    • Mila
    • Miliana: 29–30 January 2012; 3-8, 12–14 February 2012
    • Médéa: 30–31 January 2012; 3-6, 8-9, 11, 13-15, 21–22 February 2012
    • Naâma: 3-6, 8 February 2012
    • Oum El Bouaghi: 30 January 2012; 4–9 February 2012
    • Sétif: 29–31 January 2012; 3-9, 11-15, 21–22 February 2012
    • Souk Ahras: 30 January 2012; 3-8, 11-12, 14, 16 February 2012
    • Tébessa: 29–30 January 2012; 3-7, 11–12 February 2012
    • Tiaret: 3-5, 8, 11, 13-14, 22 February 2012
    • Tipaza
    • Tizi-Ouzou: 3-5, 7, 13 February 2012

Asia

References

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c "February 2012 Global Catastrophe Recap". Aon Benfield. p. 5. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
  2. ^ Jump up to: a b Homeless suffer in icy Ukraine as temperatures sink, BBC News (February 10, 2012)
  3. Jump up ^ UN to give $100,000 to help Ukrainians suffering from severe cold Kyiv Post (February 17, 2012)
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e "Europe cold wave turns deadly". AccuWeather. 2012-01-03. Retrieved 2012-02-07.
  5. Jump up ^ "Lowest temperature of the past 50 years in Belarus" (in Polish). Retrieved 2012-02-12.
  6. Jump up ^ "Snijeg prijeti novim kolapsom,hladnoća odnijela treću žrtvu". Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). February 6, 2012. Retrieved February 6, 2012.
  7. ^ Jump up to: a b BBC news – Freezing Europe hit by Russian gas shortage
  8. Jump up ^ "Maltempo: 54 morti dall'inizio di febbraio" (in Italian).
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b Elektroapgādes traucējumi tikai 50 mājsaimniecībām tvnet.lv (Latvian)
  10. Jump up ^ http://www.knmi.nl/klimatologie/lijsten/koudegolven.html
  11. Jump up ^ http://www.nu.nl/binnenland/2732434/laagste-temperatuur-in-27-jaar-gemeten.html
  12. Jump up ^ http://www.metronieuws.nl/nieuws/zwerver-doodgevroren-in-wageningen/IWIlbb!3Y7fGK49dbA8Ak9PAy3wuQ/
  13. Jump up ^ "Cold wave brings more deaths" (in (Polish)). Retrieved 2012-02-12.
  14. Jump up ^ http://www.romanialibera.ro/actualitate/europa/europa-ingheata-590-de-morti-in-urma-valului-de-frig-253337.html
  15. Jump up ^ Cold kills 215 people in Russia since Jan. 1, , Kyiv Post (February 13, 2012)
  16. ^ Jump up to: a b BBC news – Cold weather death toll passes 100 in Ukraine
  17. ^ Jump up to: a b [1]
  18. Jump up ^ [2]
  19. Jump up ^ Diario de Mallorca. "Palma vive la nevada más importante desde 1956 – Diario de Mallorca". Diariodemallorca.es. Retrieved 2012-02-07.
  20. ^ Jump up to: a b Ukraine's death toll from cold spell reaches 151, Kyiv Post (February 16, 2012)
  21. Jump up ^ "Heavy snow falling across much of UK". BBC News (BBC). February 4, 2012. Retrieved February 4, 2012.
  22. Jump up ^ "UK freezes as night-time temperatures fall". BBC. February 8, 2012. Retrieved February 8, 2012.
  23. Jump up ^ "Coldest night of the winter so far". Met Office. Retrieved February 11, 2012.
  24. Jump up ^ World Weather Post Snow Storm – Algeria – 40,000 troops deployed to clear roads, help the sick
  25. Jump up ^ Actualité Chutes de neige historiques en Algérie (French)
  26. Jump up ^ http://lionsclubalgerie.blogspot.com/2012/02/mobilisations-des-lions-et-des-leos.html
  27. Jump up ^ http://www.lesoirdalgerie.com/articles/2012/02/08/print-2-130008.php
  28. Jump up ^ http://www.setif.info/article6234.html
  29. Jump up ^ ANSAmed Weather: Algeria, 80 killed by cold, mayors against gvt
  30. Jump up ^ Le froid et la neige font au moins 80 morts en Algérie (French)
  31. Jump up ^ "Snow to continue in Armenia well into night".
  32. Jump up ^ "Мировые СМИ пишут о небывалых морозах в Азербайджане" (in Russian).
  33. Jump up ^ "Tbilisi Sea freezes for the first time in 50 years" (in (Russian)). Itar-Tass. Retrieved 2012-02-07.

External links

Media related to Early 2012 European cold wave at Wikimedia Commons
This page was last modified on 17 November 2013 at 12:59.
end quote from:

Early 2012 European cold wave - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2012_European_cold_wave‎
The Early 2012 European cold wave was a deadly cold wave that started on January .... At least 16 other deaths were reported throughout the country, due to the ...

So, possibly what we might be looking at is extremes like weather into the 100s Fahrenheit in the summer all over the lower 48 states and weather below zero all over the lower 48 states in the winter. It sounds to me that populations around the world would be somewhat reduced by all this weather chaos ongoing because people who weren't watching weather stations or who weren't extremely intuitive and instinctual might not make it.

 

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