| CNN | - |
Washington
(CNN) -- Happy Election Day, America. Things have changed since the
last time everyone went to the polls. Then, Barack Obama was re-elected
to a second four-year term.
7 things that will almost definitely happen on election night
updated 8:10 AM EST, Tue November 4, 2014
Source: CNN
But midterms have
national consequences, and what happens Tuesday will help determine what
President Obama can get done in his final two years in office. It will
tee up the coming 2016 presidential contest and give Americans the
chance to try on a more powerful GOP as they start to think about who
should be the next president.
But first comes Tuesday and here is what's going to happen:
#1 - There will be a surprise
-- Something we're listing below won't end up happening. This is an
election and it isn't over yet. Voters are fickle and polls aren't
perfect and predictions are even less so. So tune in to CNN Politics all
day and night Tuesday. We will be here and it will be exciting.
Midterm curse for the President's party?
#2 -Most Americans won't take part
-- Really, it will be exciting on Tuesday. But most Americans won't
have taken part in the election. Somewhere between 55% and 65% of
eligible Americans vote in a presidential election (about 130 million
people in 2012). Far fewer -- between 39% and 42% of Americans take part
in a midterm election (about 90 million in 2010). A recent focus group of moms
conducted by a group affiliated with Walmart suggested they would bone
up for their votes by Googling candidates the night before. Voter
excitement is actually down from 2010, the last midterm election,
according to the most recent CNN / ORC Poll. That poll also suggested
voters are angry at their political process and at Washington, D.C.,
either because they see their votes as not accomplishing change or they
see the current logjam in Washington as intractable. Either way, less
than half the eligible population is likely to show up and let their
voices be heard in this election.
How is the Louisiana midterm different?
#3 - Democrats will lose the Senate
-- Okay, this one is not a sure thing. And Vice President Biden, at
least, is still saying Democrats will keep their majority in the Senate
on Tuesday. But all indications are that the GOP will gain seats and
most likely enough for a slim Senate majority. Republicans need to gain
six seats to win the majority in the Senate. There are three seats that
were long held by retiring or already retired Democrats in which a
Republican is now heavily favored -- South Dakota, West Virginia and
Montana. Among the rest of the races that CNN considers to be tossup or
leaning toward the GOP, 7 of them are held by Democrats. Just three are
held by Republicans. Republicans have eaten away at Democrats' majority
in each election since Democrats had a filibuster proof majority when
President Obama was first elected in 2008.
Can you keep up with Charlie Crist?
#4 - Republicans will elect an African-American senator in the South
-- Tim Scott is already a senator. He was appointed after Sen. Jim
DeMint retired from office to lead a GOP think tank. So it will be
overlooked as an historical moment Tuesday night, but when he wins the
race - he is heavily favored -- Scott will become the first African
American elected as a senator from the South and only the fifth African
American elected to the Senate ever. Scott's election, while historic,
is not expected to change the fact that minorities generally support
Democrats, although Republicans, to great fanfare, have made public
efforts to rebrand themselves and draw in more support with new
demographics. Look to some of the younger leading GOP voices -- Sens.
Rand Paul and Marco Rubio both leap to mind -- to carry this effort
forward.
Midterm voting trends and the Super Bowl
#5 - There will be a runoff
-- Two states with tight Senate races create the possibility for runoff
contests. In both states, if no candidate gets more than 50% of the
vote, the top two candidates head to a runoff. In both states there are
three or more candidates and in neither state is any candidate getting
more than 50% in recent polling. In Louisiana, the runoff would take
place Dec. 6th. In Georgia, the runoff would take place Jan. 6th. Both
races are extremely tight and with a slim Senate majority in the
balance, it is possible to not know who controls the Senate for two
months. But it bears mentioning the conventional wisdom that Republicans
could do better in a two-person race on a non-traditional election day
in those two Southern states. In 2008, for instance, Sen. Saxby
Chambliss got just shy of 50% on Election Day. In the December runoff,
he got more than 57%.
What makes candidate Joni Ernst special?
#6 -- Not too much will change
-- Yes, there might be a new Senate majority. Yes, Republicans will
likely control both houses on Capitol Hill. They will control the
schedule of the Senate floor and they'll control what hearings will be
held in both the House and the Senate. It will be even more difficult
for President Obama to get a potential Supreme Court nominee a
confirmation vote if a vacancy should arise. But Democrats will still
have well more than the 40 votes they'll need to block just about any
legislation they want. If what angers you about Washington -- remember,
voters are angry -- is that nothing seems to get done, this election
isn't likely to make you very happy.
Joe Biden: Senate tie-breaker?
#7 -- It will be a nail biter for incumbent governors --
There hasn't been a Democratic governor in Florida since 1999. So this
year, Democrats ran a former Republican. The main storyline for Election
Night has and will be control of the Senate, but there are a host of
interesting governor's races and voters could send a strong message to
incumbents and incumbent parties. Perhaps the closest and most
interesting race of any kind is the Florida governor's race, where
Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist is in the
hunt to get his old job back with a new party. There are potential
upsets brimming elsewhere. Republican Gov. Scott Walker is neck and neck
to to keep his job in Wisconsin. So is Democrat John Hickenlooper in
Colorado and Republican Nathan Deal in Georgia. Polling is very dismal
for Republican Gov. Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania and Paul LePage in
Maine. It wouldn't be a total shock to see Republican governors in blue
states like Maryland and Massachusetts and Democratic governors in red
states like Kansas and Georgia.
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