Tiny Baltic States Prepare to Hit Back at Mighty Russia
Earlier
this month, a Russian warship entered Latvia’s exclusive economic zone,
some nine nautical miles from the country’s territorial waters.
Considering that Russian warships have already approached Latvian waters
some 50 times this year, according to figures from Latvia’s Ministry of
Defence,…
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Tiny Baltic States Prepare to Hit Back at Mighty Russia
Earlier this month, a Russian warship entered
Latvia’s exclusive economic zone, some nine nautical miles from the
country’s territorial waters. Considering that Russian warships have
already approached Latvian waters some 50 times this year, according to
figures from Latvia’s Ministry of Defence, it was not an altogether
unsurprising visit. Russian military planes, meanwhile, have come close
to Latvian airspace some 200 times this year. Latvia’s defence minister
Raimonds Vejonis tells Newsweek at his office in Riga, that his
country is prepared should its mighty neighbour to the east decide to
invade: “We have special plans of action. Working with the Ministry of
Interior, we conduct exercises to train our troops and policemen for
different scenarios. But of course we need more co-operation with our
neighbours and our Nato allies as well.”
Indeed, the
Baltic states, long accused of exaggerating Russian threats, now see
themselves proven right. “We Estonians didn’t think that the history
ended two decades ago”, says Sven Sakkov, Estonia’s undersecretary of
defence. “The 2008 war in Georgia was a wakeup call but most of Europe
hit the snooze button.” Sakkov calls the current situation in Europe
“climate change, not a case of bad weather”, and says Estonia had
already responded to the Russian threat by fast-tracking military
procurement and asking Nato to permanently base both troops and
equipment in its soil. Ordinary Estonians are responding to the
situation, too, with the number of new recruits to the voluntary Defence
League doubling this year compared to last year. The Defence League now
has 14,545 part-time soldiers, equalling 1% of the country’s
population.
Lithuania, for its part, recently launched a
high-readiness combat response force comprising some 1,600 troops that
can react to hostile actions within 2-24 hours. And Latvia, which is
considered particularly vulnerable due to its 26% Russian minority and
its strong Russia-leaning party, has requested Nato troops on permanent
rotation. (Estonia has 25% ethnic Russians; Lithuania, 6%.) Currently
150 Nato troops are stationed in Latvia and, Vejonis argues, their
presence alone constitutes a deterrent. “Who wants to start a war
against the US?” he asks. “That’s what Russia would do if it attacked
Latvia. Putin is not that stupid.” Still, 150 Nato troops could hardly
stop an invasion, and though the prospect of one currently seems
unlikely, Latvia is beefing up defence spending, which will reach 1%
next year and the Nato standard of 2% in 2020. “Russia is showing that
it still has geopolitical interests in Latvia and the region, and
showing us and Nato how strong they are”, says Vejonis. “The warships
they’re sending have the latest technology – OK, it’s Russian
technology, but they’re sending the best ships they have.” In a further
sign of escalating tensions between the two countries, Nato and Russia
have been conducting war games in the region.
In the early 2000s, Sweden did conclude that history
had ended and dramatically reduced its impressive Cold War military. “It
was decided that threats were so far off in the future that we could
take a strategic time-out and focus on developing high-tech defence”,
explains Bo Hugemark, a Swedish military historian and retired colonel.
In 2009, having decided to end conscription it further cut military
levels, to 6,000 full-time and 6,000 part-time troops. “Just focusing on
threats facing us rather than the region allowed is to take it easy
behind the Baltic-Finnish shield”, notes Hugemark. As a result, the
Baltic states’ larger sister is now finding itself short of potentially
thousands of soldiers and sailors. “We know how to execute small tasks,
not fight a major enemy”, complains one young officer. Though catching
an alien submarine is rare, the fact that the suspected Russian sub
spotted this autumn managed to escape was an embarrassment to the
Swedish military. In an ironic twist, the development of a new
anti-submarine grenade launcher system was cancelled in 2007 following
budget cuts. Earlier this month, the Swedish military confirmed that a
submarine “violated Swedish territorial waters”, a fact Prime Minister
Stefan Löfvén called “completely unacceptable”. The Prime Minister has
now initiated a security council that will advise him on threats to
Sweden.
Finland has taken a less rose-tinted view of
its eastern neighbour. “Finnish policy-makers who’ve been interested in
engaging with Russia are surprised by Russia’s escalating aggression,
but the military isn’t very surprised”, notes Jyri Rautasalo, a lecturer
in strategy and security policy in the Finnish National Defence
University. “As a result, the military adjustments it needs to make now
are smaller than those Sweden needs to make.” And Russia has been
attempting to intimidate Finland, too, violating Finnish airspace five
times this year. In a string of somewhat bizarre incidents this August
and September, Russian warships and helicopters tried to force a Finnish
marine research vessel in the Baltic Sea away from international
waters.
Another interpretation is, of course, that
hawks are overdramatising Russia’s actions, labelling it aggression when
it may be more harmless arrogance. “Without this crisis those
advocating defence cuts would have more power”, says Rautasalo. And as
far as Ivars Zarins, a leading MP for Harmony, Latvia’s Russia-leaning
party, is concerned, “all the other parties talk about is Russia as a
way of diverting attention from their inability to deal with basic
internal issues.” In the October parliamentary election, largely fought
over national security issues, Harmony lost seven of its 31 seats in the
Saeima but remains the country’s largest party.
Added
Zarins during an interview at the Saeima: “Latvia belongs to Nato and is
member of euro zone. Saying that we face the same fate as Ukraine is
like saying that we face World War Three.” But, he warns, like Ukraine
Latvia is divided, and like other Harmony politicians he accuses other
parties of alienating ethnic Russians and warning of Russian threats
instead of focusing on Latvia’s “real issues”. The ethnic Latvian
Harmony legislator likens his country’s treatment of its Russian
minority to a husband neglecting his wife: “After a while she takes a
lover. Who’s to blame, the husband or the lover?” Instead, argues
Zarins, Latvia should focus on “poverty, social inequality and
education. We’re not investing enough in science and innovation to make
our economy more productive and jobs better paid, so people are leaving
the country for better opportunities elsewhere.”Russian Latvians and
Estonians do, in fact, watch pro-Russian. Earlier this month the Russian
channel Sputnik – named after the Soviet Union’s satellite that seemed
to prove the country’s superiority over the United States – was
launched, broadcasting in 30 languages including Estonian, Latvian,
Lithuanian and Finnish. According to the Latvian government, Russian
propaganda amounts to information warfare, which it considers as serious
as military threats. The country has just allocated €800,000 to expand
Latvian state television’s small Russian service, and it plans to go
farther, pushing for restrictions on Russian “propaganda channels”
operating from EU countries. “It’s not intervening with free speech”,
insists Vejonis. “It’s tackling propaganda, and this is a matter for all
EU countries since the propaganda is destabilising Europe.”
If
the Baltic states appear increasingly alarmed over the prospect of
Russian aggression it’s because they have some experience of being
subjected to it. Today, however, Western-leaning neighbours of Russia
face better odds than in the past. “If Estonia is attacked, we’ll fight
like hell”, promises Sakkov. “The lessons we’ve learned from 1939 and
1940 are that you have to fight whatever the odds, that you need allies,
and that you have to be a democracy.”
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