Probability of timing of next big California flooding given known facts

What do we know about the timing of the last big Flood in 1861&2?

1. We know the rain started on Christmas Eve 1861 and continued for 43 days afterwards.
2. We know the rain was warmer and melted the snowpack making the flooding even worse.

If we start with just these two facts it might be likely that the flood when it returns (if it returns in a Global Warming period) would come between November 1st and April 30th.

If this assumption is true people living in flood prone areas would be safe from May 1st to November 1st most years from flooding at least.

3. another interesting fact is that before the last big flood there was about 10 to 20 years of droughts that were broken by this 43 days and nights of rain.

So, another assumption that could be true or not is that a 10 to 20 year drought precedes each megaflood.

If this assumption is true we have have had a drought so far that is from about 2010 which would mean we have already had a 5 year drought.

So, does that mean we have between 5 and 15 years before a Megaflood?

I don't know.

But, if we take all the facts so far we might be able to make certain assumptions or not.

What might be even more useful would be to find Native American records of these floods and what they have to say.

Though they are in Arizona it is possible the Hopis or the Navajo tribes might have something like this. Or other tribes in California, Oregon or Washington might have verbal poems or songs that describe things that could be translated into years that might reveal more than we do now also.

Also, hydrologists and other scientists might be able to do research that would reveal more than we do now about such events too.

This is equally important to know about as earthquakes or Hurricanes here in the west because we likely are going to face this once again within the next 50 years at the outside at some point.