begin quote from:
Some of America’s most important political races will be run next year in seven …
In high-tax California, a vote to scrap deductions could be the kiss of death for endangered House Republicans
Some
of America's most important political races will be run next year in
seven California congressional districts. That seems strange.
Normally,
these contests would be obscure asterisks outside their local areas.
The Republican incumbents would win, most of them comfortably. But these
aren’t normal times. They’re Trump times.
Sure, the office of California governor is super powerful. Voters next year will choose Gov. Jerry Brown’s successor. But politically, the odds are 99 to 1 it will be another Democrat, and that’s being generous to the GOP. Same with the U.S. Senate election. And the state Legislature is a cinch to remain under Democratic dominance.
But the U.S. House elections will help determine whether one-party Republican rule continues in Washington or if Democrats recapture at least one half of Congress. That will largely determine the fate of President Trump’s policy agenda.
A
big factor in whether those California House Republicans survive could
be how they vote on the GOP tax overhaul pending in Congress. Despite
Republican leaders' claims that the legislation would cut taxes for most
people, independent analysts say both rival bills have middle-class tax
hikes written all over them.
That's
particularly true in high-tax California because of the proposed
elimination — or serious crimping — of state and local tax deductions on
federal returns.
"My
assumption is that people who take advantage of the deductions for
state and local taxes are exactly the people who vote, and probably
disproportionately vote Republican," says Darry Sragow, a longtime
Democratic strategist and now publisher of the nonpartisan California
Target Book, which handicaps congressional and legislative races.
"I
would think if Republicans manage to enact legislation that kills state
and local tax deductions, they arguably are putting a deadly weapon to
their foreheads — and pulling the trigger."
Even
if the bill fails to pass but a Republican votes for it, Sragow adds, a
Democratic rival can capitalize by claiming that the incumbent "doesn't
stand with the voters. He votes 180 degrees opposite them."
Those seven endangered Republican House members include five from Southern California: Darrell Issa of Vista, Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa, Mimi Walters of Irvine, Ed Royce of Fullerton and Steve Knight of Palmdale. The other two are from the San Joaquin Valley: David Valadao of Hanford and Jeff Denham of Turlock.
What
all seven have in common — and a big reason analysts think they’re
vulnerable in next year’s elections — is that their districts voted for
Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Trump.
But
tending to debunk this perceived evidence of vulnerability, Sragow
says, is the fact that in the five Southern California districts,
Clinton is the only Democrat in a statewide partisan race the voters
have supported since 2012. They didn't even back Brown or U.S. Sen.
Dianne Feinstein in their blowout wins over Republicans whose names
virtually no one remembers.
What that shows is consistent support for any Republican not named Trump.
"If
voters behave as they have," Sragow says, "those five seats are going
to be very difficult for Democrats to pick up — barring a national wave
election, a tsunami. Whether the incredible amount of heat generated by
Trump creates that, nobody knows."
There
were early glimpses of a potential tsunami in last week's elections in
Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere. Democrats romped. Suburbs that
resemble Republican districts in Southern California voted Democratic,
with many voters motivated by their dislike of Trump.
The
heart of Trump resistance is California. And Democratic strategists
hope that citizens who don't consistently vote — Latinos especially —
will be so disgusted with the president that they'll cast ballots next
November.
Nationwide, Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to take back the House.
That
GOP tax bill could anger significant numbers of middle-class
Republicans in the targeted California House districts. The state and
local tax deductions are widely used in those districts to reduce
federal income taxes.
In
Walters' and Rohrabacher's districts, the average state and local tax
deduction totaled $18,200 for 2015, according to the Government Finance
Officers Assn. In Issa's district, it was $16,524; in Royce's, $15,575,
and in Knight's, $16,723. In the poorer San Joaquin Valley, the
deductions were much less: about $10,000 in both districts.
Overall
in California, about 6 million taxpayers — one third of the total —
itemized deductions on their tax returns, claiming an average of $18,400
for state and local taxes. The Bay Area boosted the average.
Issa
is the only California Republican member of Congress, as of writing
this, to oppose the tax proposal. Others feel a strong loyalty to one of
the measure's strongest advocates, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy
of Bakersfield. There are 14 GOP members in all. Democrats dominate the
delegation with 39.
"We
can do better than this," says Issa, who won reelection by only half a
percentage point in 2016. He's considered the most vulnerable among the
threatened House members.
Rohrabacher
is also regarded as threatened. One reason is that voters gradually
have been deserting the GOP in Orange County and registering as
independents.
In
1992, Republicans amounted to 52% of Orange County voter registration.
Last November, it was down to less than 38%. Democrats stayed
practically the same at around 34%. Independents rose from 10% to nearly
24%.
And
a tsunami could be brewing. Endangered Republicans must decide whether
to fall in line behind Trump and the party leadership, or protect their
itemizing taxpayers.
Follow @LATimesSkelton on Twitter
ALSO
No comments:
Post a Comment