Thursday, January 30, 2020

If the Coronavirus follows the same pattern as the 1918 Spanish Flu

If we take it as a ratio of the 100 million people that died of the Spanish Flu in 1918 it is theoretically
possible that over 300 million people could die if it behaves the same way now.

However, what is different between 1918 and 2020?

First, we are about 100 years later.
Second, we have a lot more knowledge in general about health scientifically speaking than in 1918.
Third, are people as genetically strong as they were in 1918? I would have to say "No"


Because of vaccinations and diets might not be the same as then. How will this change things?


Another change is Airliners circle the globe.

in 1918 people had to move between continents on large ocean liners for the most part. So, ocean liners were the Airplanes of those days whether they were the Titanic's or the Queen Mary's of the oceans then.

So, one of the biggest differences is air travel. But, because of air travel most diseases experienced by the middle Classes and above are the same. In other words the immune systems of the middle Classes of the world and above should be homogeneous to one degree or another because of the frequency of air travel now around the world by so many.

So, diseases of one nation tend to also be to some degree the diseases of all other nations too except for differences regarding diet among nations.

To make a long story short it might be possible that 300 million people or more could die worldwide if it behaves like the 1918 Spanish Flu Virus. We'll just have to see.

So, it is possible here that 3 times the amount of people that died in World War II (approximately 100 million died) or the Cold War (approximately 100 million died also) could potentially die if it runs it's course worldwide.

But, most people even if they get it will not die but will recover eventually too. So, this is something.

No comments: