Friday, April 10, 2020

Models are only theoretical in nature

The actuality is what we need to take seriously because models only can predict so much. So, do I believe today is the peak of deaths? Not really. Because today might be the peak for New York State or not but it cannot be the peak for every part of the U.S. necessarily because that just doesn't make any sense.

However, since most cases are presently in New York City when those cases and deaths start going down in number it might be that the peak number of deaths on any given day might be today for the whole country but I wouldn't be surprised if this wasn't true either at this point.

I unfortunately believe that the most deaths from coronavirus will actually come after areas go back to work and workers bring the virus home to their families sometime between June and this time next year.

But, if testing can be at a high enough rate they might be able to reduce the deaths and still keep businesses open. But, outside of work I don't think people are going to be rushing back to restaurants or entertainment venues worldwide? So, this could be very very disappointing for restaurant owners and entertainment venues worldwide. I think people will be scared s------- to return to their normal lives after losing so many people. So, I think it will be 5 years before things actually go back to anything normal.

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