Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Israel, Gulf in strange alliance against Iran

Israel, Gulf in 'strange alliance' against Iran

Associated Press


FILE-In this Sunday, Nov. 3, 2013 file photo, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, left, is greeted by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, after Kerry arrived in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In an unexpected consequence of the global diplomacy over Iran, Israel and Gulf Arab states led by Saudi Arabia are boosting back-channel contacts and finding increasing common ground over their mutual dismay with Tehran’s drive to mend ties with the West and reach a nuclear deal. The "strange alliance" _ in the word of one former diplomat _ highlights how the ripples from Iran are driving some allies apart while pushing foes closer. It also highlights the Sunni world’s distress at the possibility of a bomb in the hands of a Shiite power. (AP Photo/Jason Reed, Pool, File)
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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry made another stop in the Middle East this month, he received an expected earful over Washington's outreach to Iran: Don't trust Tehran, tighten sanctions even more, anything short of complete nuclear concessions is a grave mistake.
Kerry's meeting wasn't in Israel, though. It was in Riyadh, listening to Saudi leaders.
In one of the region's oddest pairings, Israel and the Gulf Arab states led by Saudi Arabia increasingly are finding common ground — and a common political language — on their mutual dismay over Iran's history-making overtures to Washington and the prospect of a nuclear deal in Geneva that could curb Tehran's atomic program but leave the main elements intact, such as uranium enrichment.
"The adage about 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' is playing out over Iran," said Theodore Karasik, a security and political affairs analyst at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. "This situation opens up some interesting possibilities as it all shakes out."
There seems little chance of major diplomatic breakthroughs between Israel and the Gulf's array of ruling monarchs and sheiks. But their shared worries over Iran's influence and ambitions already has brought back-channel contacts and "intimate relationships" on defense and other strategic interests through forums such as the U.N., said Dan Gillerman, a former Israeli ambassador to the world body.
The stepped-up anxieties on Iran could bring new space for the Gulf-Israel overlap.
Egypt's military-backed government, which ousted the Iran-friendly Muslim Brotherhood, could be an easy fit into a regional bloc standing against Iran and demanding tougher lines from Washington, which has been roundly criticized by some for abandoning its longstanding allies in favor of trying to settle the nuclear standoff with Iran.
Egypt's leadership depends on Gulf money as a lifeline and seeks to rebuild its ties with Israel, whose peace treaty with Cairo was considered a historical annoyance by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Saudi and other Gulf states are critical money-and-weapons pipelines to Syrian rebels in a proxy war with Iran, the main Middle East backers of Bashar Assad's government. Iran's other loyal force, Lebanon's Hezbollah, is also in the mix in Syria. On Tuesday, an al-Qaida-linked group claimed it carried out a pair of suicide bombings at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut that killed 23 people, including an Iranian diplomat, in an attack that was widely seen as retaliation against Hezbollah and Lebanon's role in Syria.
Israel may now be able to look more to Saudi assistance and intelligence in efforts to undercut Hezbollah, which has fired rockets into Israel and waged a 2006 war. Saudi Arabia also gave important backing the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 with Israel and could assume an even greater role in future Israel-Palestinian talks.
"A nuclear deal ... is likely to intensify behind-the-scene political cooperation between the Persian Gulf states and Israel, especially when it comes to lobbying in Washington and in Brussels," said Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born political analyst based in Israel.
Already, there has been some curious cross currents by foes viewing Israel and Saudi Arabia as being on the same page.
After the Beirut bombings, Iran's foreign minister blamed Israel for the attacks. Hezbollah and Syrian officials, however, indirectly pointed the finger at Saudi Arabia, which is a leading backer of Syrian rebel factions along with Gulf ally Qatar.
On Monday, the official Saudi Press Agency put out a statement categorically denying a report in Britain's Sunday Times that the kingdom and Israel were making "contingencies" for an attack on Iran if diplomacy fails to make deep cuts in Tehran's nuclear program.
It's not difficult, though, for Middle East commentators to speculate on the meeting of minds between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The roots of their shared fears over Iran are so similar.
Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran — or even if it is near that capability — as a direct threat to its survival after decades anti-Israel remarks by Iranian leaders and attacks by Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah. Israel also worries about shifts in the regional balance of power. Israel is believed to have a nuclear arsenal, but neither confirms nor denies its existence.
Iran denies it seeks nuclear weapons. But any deal with world powers seen as easing concerns could later be used by Iran to boost calls to ban nuclear arms across the region — and put pressure on Israel over its presumed nuclear warheads.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that his country was ready to "defend itself" if Iran appeared on course to develop a nuclear weapon.
Saudi Arabia, which generally sets the political tone for the rest of Gulf, also sees Iran as a dangerous neighbor. The Sunni-ruled Gulf states routinely assail Shiite power Iran for allegedly backing revolts such as Bahrain's Arab Spring-inspired uprising or supporting coup plots — although no clear evidence has ever been made public.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners are deep-pocket customers of U.S. weapons and aircraft, but also allow the Pentagon extensive footholds in the region, including the headquarters of the Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain. The arrangement is meant to buy protection from Washington and intimidate Iran.
During Kerry's visit this month, he assured Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal that Washington's "deep relationship" is solid and enduring.
But there was no mistaking Saudi Arabia's lingering anger over the U.S. decision to back off on possible military strikes on the Iranian-backed Syrian government over its suspected use of chemical weapons in August. Instead, Washington sided with a Russian-drafted plan to collect and dismantle Assad's chemical stockpile.
Saudi Arabia is a main backer of the Syrian rebels fighters through aid channels believed overseen by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan.
Shortly before Kerry's trip, Saudi Arabia snubbed a seat on the U.N. Security Council in an unprecedented protest mostly aimed at U.S. policies in the Middle East.
"We have a common enemy, Iran, and we have shared disappointments from our allies, mainly the United States, something that created a somewhat strange alliance between Israel and the Gulf states," said Gillerman, the former diplomat.
Gulf leaders keep a cool distance in public from Israel, but it's not been a total separation.
The boldest link so far has been from Qatar — home base of the influential pan-Arab network Al-Jazeera — that allowed an Israel trade office until it was closed after Israel's attacks on Gaza beginning in late 2008.
Israeli passport holders are generally banned from entering Gulf countries because of no diplomatic relations, but exceptions have been made for athletes and selected international conferences. Still, there are sensitivities. Last month, Israeli flags were edited from some TV coverage of World Cup swimming competition in Qatar.
Israel's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Yigal Palmor, said Israelis seeking to travel to the Gulf are likely to rely on a second passport if they are dual nationals.
Uzi Dayan, a former Israeli deputy chief of staff and national security adviser, said Israel is singled out as the main alarmist over Iran's nuclear program, but the Sunni Arabs in the Gulf, Egypt and elsewhere are just as galvanized in opposition.
"There are more actors and participants than what you hear. We choose to do it from the main stage in a loud voice," Dayan told Israel's Army Radio.
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Associated Press writer Josef Federman in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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Israel, Gulf in 'strange alliance' against Iran

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry made another stop in the Middle East this month, he received an expected earful over Washington's outreach to Iran: Don't trust Tehran, tighten sanctions even more, anything short of complete nuclear concessions is a grave…
Associated Press
 
I think what I find interesting about all this is that the U.S. finds it is in it's best interests to posssibly make and agreement with Iran to avoid a new war. We are still in the longest war in the history of the U.S. which is in Afghanistan so we don't want another war with Iran. Also, there is now enough distance between the whole Shah of Iran and the kidnapping of over 400 American Embassy personnel in Tehran around 1979 or 1980  who were held by the Iranians for about 1 year or more for the U.S. and Tehran not to want another war.
 
However, this isn't true of Israel and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Countries.
 
For example, the Saudis have less of a problem with Al Qaeda in Syria than do the Iranians, Assad, Russia and the U.S.
 
Since the last 12 years of war for the U.S. was thought to be caused by Al Qaeda, the U.S. does not underestimate the ongoing problem and financial nightmare that Al Qaeda has caused not only the U.S. but the whole world. So, it is in the U.S. best interests to make some kind of deal with Iran before we have to go to war with them. Because Iran doesn't like Al Qaeda either. Iran Supports Assad and Hezbollah and they are all fighting Al Qaeda because Al Qaeda is Sunni and Iran, Iraq and Assad are all Shia majority ruled countries that fight Al Qaeda. Whereas Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and many other countries are Sunni which is the same sect as Al Qaeda. That doesn't mean that Jordan or Turkey support in any way Al Qaeda but it does mean they are all Sunni based in their religious philosophies.
 
The reason for this is likely Russia would allow Iran to go to war with Saudi Arabia and Israel but likely wouldn't put up with the U.S. attacking Iran or being in a war with Iran. You can already see how Russia has prevented larger nations getting involved in Syria much to the dismay of the free world. This is why I think we are in Cold War II at least in regard to Syria.
 
So, as a result of all this proxy war in Syria that Russia is encouraging by propping up Assad and that Iran is encouraging by propping up Assad, the U.S. isn't interested in any more wars. So, likely Israel and Saudi Arabia and some of the other Sunni nations potentially including Turkey may have a war with Iran, possibly  Iraq and Syria. What Russia will do is anyone's guess. But to keep the whole world from being nuked out of existence at this point likely the U.S. might not directly be involved in a war against Iran if it can get the right deal concerning nuclear weapons regarding Iran. These are my present thoughts but as you know, the Middle East has always been a tinder box especially since Arab Spring. So, almost anything can and will happen there over the next 25 to 30 years. 

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