I don't have a crystal ball to know for sure but there is a good chance that this could or would happen the way things presently are going.
Capitalism for it to work worldwide needs a few things going for it. Namely all or most nations need to play by the same rules.
However, Putin right now is breaking every rule in the book (just like Stalin and Hitler before him). So, Putin is making all the mistakes of a conqueror.
And a conqueror is not a financier. A conqueror is more like a Warlord in the way they think about things.
It's sort of like "Damn the Torpedoes! Full speed ahead!" IN other words a conqueror doesn't consider economic consequences because a conqueror subsists on the spoils taken from others.
Because of this philosophy he has devastated the local economies of Crimea and now Eastern Ukraine. Many or most businesses in Crimea and Ukraine are either gone and now empty buildings or are sort of dysfunctional. In other words Crimea is an economic disaster with no real government in place really.
I was writing about how all McDonald's restaurants have closed in Crimea for example, and everyone working there has lost their jobs, and everyone investing there has lost their investments etc. But, this is just the tip of the iceberg because this is likely true of 90% of the businesses in Crimea and this likely is beginning to happen in Eastern Ukraine too.
If businesses can't get supplies they close. If businesses have employees that are so terrified they leave the country, they close. If Pro Russian militants threaten owners and workers in businesses they close.
So, basically Eastern Ukraine and Crimea are economic disaster areas sort of like economic deserts. So, one wonders how the local people are surviving. Or, are they just leaving Ukraine for somewhere their parents or other relatives live? I think all these things are happening at once and Crimea and Eastern Ukraine are already completely dysfunctional regarding business of any sort.
But, what is going to happen to Russia. What is going to happen to the rest of Europe? This all remains to be seen.
But, when I read these three articles:
I realized that the end result of all this would cut the capitalism right out of the heart of Russia and would destroy the democratic Capitalists both inside and outside of Russia who have a lot of money invested in businesses inside of Russia.
This could indeed create a world wide depression when this hits too big to fail Russian banks and one fails and the country goes down and it ripples throughout Europe especially Germany which has a lot of money invested in businesses in Russia. And this (within a year) could catapult Europe, China and then the world into a Great Depression caused by cascading (too big to fail banks) from around the world.
And this time there would be no U.S. treasury system, no U.S. Secretary of Treasury, no FED to bail us out of an incredible cascading catastrophe that the earth might have never seen before.
The U.S. government couldn't save us because we are not at the center of this, the EU, the IMF and Russia are at the center of this and there is no way they are prepared to deal with something like this because it is so out of the blue. They likely would need about 2 years to even set up legally to deal with something like this.
So, all Europe and Russia could do is watch the Russian and European economy disappear down the toilet the way things presently are. And they would take the rest of the world with them sooner or later.
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