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To the best of my ability I write about my experience of the Universe Past, Present and Future
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Tuesday, September 16, 2014
A 1.4 to 1.7 basic reproduction number means 77,181 to 277,124 new cases of Ebola in 2014
A virus's basic reproduction number
helps to determine if a viral outbreak is being contained. A number
below 1 shows that the infection rate is dropping. A number above 1
indicates that the infection rate is rising. Using data supplied by the
WHO, an August study found that an estimate for this virus was between
1.4 and 1.7 at that time, meaning that each newly infected individual
had subsequently infected 1.4 to 1.7 more. The time between initial
infection and the infecting of others for this virus is short. The basic
reproduction number coupled with a short transfer time for this
epidemic is of great concern [97]
According to a research paper released in August, in the hypothetical
worst-case scenario, if a reproduction number of over 1.0 continues for
the remainder of the year we would expect to observe a total of 77,181
to 277,124 additional cases within 2014.[98]
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