Tuesday, September 16, 2014

A 1.4 to 1.7 basic reproduction number means 77,181 to 277,124 new cases of Ebola in 2014

A virus's basic reproduction number helps to determine if a viral outbreak is being contained. A number below 1 shows that the infection rate is dropping. A number above 1 indicates that the infection rate is rising. Using data supplied by the WHO, an August study found that an estimate for this virus was between 1.4 and 1.7 at that time, meaning that each newly infected individual had subsequently infected 1.4 to 1.7 more. The time between initial infection and the infecting of others for this virus is short. The basic reproduction number coupled with a short transfer time for this epidemic is of great concern [97] According to a research paper released in August, in the hypothetical worst-case scenario, if a reproduction number of over 1.0 continues for the remainder of the year we would expect to observe a total of 77,181 to 277,124 additional cases within 2014.[98]

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2014 West Africa Ebola virus outbreak - Wikipedia, the free ...

The main problem with this is it doesn't stop there either which is why Obama is sending 3000 medical military personnel to Africa to try to stop this thing.

However, as an intuitive it feels like too little too late.

This is what happens when just too many crises happen on earth at the same time. One or more crises are going to slip through the cracks like this one did.

The only thing I can think of to slow this down is to cut off all air traffic to and from infected areas of the world. 

Though this could economically destroy those nations viability, at least it would prevent the rest of the world from becoming infected as fast. This might give the world time to save civilization from ending in one form or another.

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