However, 120 likely is going to be here by 2050
Fri, Sep 12, 2014, 1:59AM EDT - US Markets open in 7 hrs and 31 mins
Humans Could Be In The Middle Of A Huge Evolutionary Transition
By Christina Sterbenz
September 10, 2014 6:11 PM
Mankind is undergoing a major evolutionary transition comparable to the shifts from prosimians to monkeys, monkeys to apes, and apes to humans, according to Cadell Last, a doctoral student in evolutionary anthropology and researcher at the Global Brain Institute.
Human life expectancy
has already increased from about 45 at the start of the 20th century to
80 today. Because of advancements in technology, which will affect
natural selection, Last suggests life expectancy could increase to 120
as early as 2050 — a concept known as radical life extension.
In addition to longer
lives, humans will likely delay the timing of biological reproduction
and reduce the number of offspring too, according to Last. Taken
together, these changes could signify a new type of human, more focused
on culture than biology.
Last makes his case in a paper from the most recent issue of Current Aging Science. Citing other futurists like Ray Kurzweil and Francis Heylighen, Last theorizes about human interaction with technology, relying on observations of past primate evolution and biology.
Young chimpanzees play at a Congo sanctuary.
From 'Living Fast And Dying Young' To 'Living Slow And 'Dying Old'
According to life history theory, natural
selection shapes the length of an organism's life and the timing of key
events to produce the most surviving offspring. In the "fundamental
life history trade-off," organisms must choose between spending their
time producing as many offspring as possible or rearing those offspring
to make them as successful as possible, according to Last.And as brain sizes increases, organisms require more energy and longer rearing time to reach their full potential.
Based on these ideas, three
major shifts in primate history have occurred toward longer lives and
delayed reproduction: between prosimians and monkeys, monkeys and apes,
and apes and humans.
Humans already dedicate the most time and energy toward nurturing
offspring of any primate species, and this pattern is becoming only more
extreme.
"Human life history throughout
our species evolution can be thought of as one long trend towards
delayed sexual maturation and biological reproduction (i.e., from
'living fast and dying young' to 'living slow and dying old')," Last
writes.
While physical needs fueled previous evolutionary changes, cultural
and technological innovations will drive the next shift, which has been
accelerating since the Industrial Revolution.
Simply said, humans need more time to develop to take advantage of our complex world.
Welcome to the future.
Biological Versus Cultural Reproduction
Considering recent advancements
like in-vitro fertilization, egg-freezing, and even adoption, the
mechanics of biological reproduction have radically changed. "The
biological clock isn't going to be around forever," Last says — or at
least, people can turn it off or ignore it for a while.
Today, and even more so in the
future, the success of individual and collective human life depends on
knowledge and economic prosperity. Passing on new and important ideas to
the next generation involves a process called cultural reproduction,
which redirects time and energy toward cultural activities, as opposed
to biological reproduction.
"You have a limited amount of
time and energy from birth to death, and you've got to figure out
whether you're going to dedicate that time and energy toward biological
reproduction or cultural reproduction," Last says. "We're opting to take
ourselves out of the gene pool in favor of immersing ourselves in an
idea pool."
Even now, we've seen evidence of delayed reproduction and
fewer offspring per person in many countries. Despite fears of
overpopulation, Last points out that more than half of countries (with
available data) have reached a replacement fertility rate of less than
2.1, as shown in his chart below, compiled from the CIA's World Factbook.
A chart of fertility rates by country from Last's paper.
"As countries become
socioeconomically advanced, more and more people, especially women, have
the option to engage in cultural reproduction," Last says.
What's more, the emergence of
artificial intelligence will offset the need for low-skill,
low-education jobs, giving individuals the "opportunity to explore
cultural reproduction as a vocation," Last writes. In many cases,
biological reproduction has even become "too costly" in the face of the
increasing pressure to adapt to technological advancements.
All together, Last predicts a
variety of humans who could live much longer and have kids much later in
life when compared to modern humans.
"These are sort of the beginning
signs that we're making a transition to a radical life extension —
within 20 or 30 years," Last says.
Meanwhile, technology has
changed human interaction in many ways. Already, a reporter in New York
can talk to an evolutionary anthropologist in Canada over Skype. In
another few decades, nanotechnology could allow similar conversations to
occur entirely in the brain.
"Your 80 or 100 is going to be so radically different than your grandparents,'" Last says.
end quote from:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/humans-could-middle-huge-evolutionary-221152424.html
No comments:
Post a Comment