What drove Arab Spring? Though the fruit and vegetable salesmen setting himself on fire with gasoline actually started the whole thing it morphed then through many changes.
Here are some of the problems with these changes:
First of all, many people got involved who were young, theoretical and educated but without enough real life experience to understand local dynamics of government, religion and culture as they have interacted for thousands of years already.
So, especially people who received western educations would have read what was happening and what would happen wrong because of their western education. What happens in the Middle East is completely different than what might happen in the U.S. or Europe for a hundred or more different reasons.
First of all, the middle east is based upon two things: Tribal Loyalties and whether you are Sunni Muslim or Shia Muslim or whether you are some other type of minority.
And thinking people are going to react the same in any part of the middle East like they might in Europe or the U.S. just isn't going to happen (at least in the long run).
Governments throughout the middle east not only protect their citizens, without them it all goes back to being tribal warlords. And you really can't have a democracy if all the democratic candidates get murdered by various kinds of Warlords, gang leaders, smugglers and the like.
So, when idealistic people caused governments to collapse hoping something better would happen there wasn't enough faith in any system to protect people during whatever transition was trying to happen.
In the end, democratic government is more like a marriage than anything else. Without trust or enough of it democracy simply does not exist. We have seen this in Libya, for example, and we have seen this in Egypt as well, both had different outcomes so far.
So, what people tried to create who were idealistic and what actually happened often was so chaotic that people might have wished they hadn't tried to change things at all at this point.
But, to me, here is the real problem. The real problem never was any government (except maybe for Assad's). The real problem is overpopulation, global climate change and a lack of enough tillable land and potable water throughout the middle east. Because of this, it was inevitable that thousands to millions were going to die while this whole thing sorted itself out.
The only way peaceful change could have happened would be if birth control was allowed to happen the last 50 years in the Middle East. However, the Muslim religion and birth control are not compatable. So now, as a direct result hundreds of thousands have died already and likely we are going to see millions more die from ISIS and Ebola throughout Africa and the Middle East.
Could this have been avoided?
I don't think so because the Muslim religion is 12th to 14th century thinking and likely isn't going to change anytime soon. So, likely it was inevitable that millions were going to die before something better happened in the middle East. This is incredibly sad to say but likely on a practical level absolutely true.
So, how is Arab Spring a singularity type of event? Go back ten years and try to imagine predicting what has happened?
The only thing I knew for sure was that a group like ISIS was going to be created by Russia's AID of Assad. However, I could never have predicted what ISIS has become which is a lawnmower than kills 80% of the people it touches either directly or indirectly. It is more horrific than anything since World War I and World War II.
One could equate ISIS to: Absolute Genocide of civilization on all levels getting worse by the day.
What I mean by this is ISIS pilages everything including men, women, children, all possessions all lands etc.
Hadrian's wall and the Great Wall of China were built to keep out people like this a long long time ago now.
These are only rapers and pilagers and nothing good can come from ISIS ever (unless you are into genociding all people and all culture out of the middle east). And most of the world knows this point of view is only suicidal for everyone left on the planet.
IF ISIS were left to run rampant across the planet within a few years no one would be left alive at all here on earth.
ISIS and Ebola are alike in one way: If either of them are left alone they will end or seriously damage or change or end human civilization itself here on earth.
No comments:
Post a Comment