Sunday, December 14, 2014

Could this oil price drop now cause another Great Depression?

Some thought should be given to this because of what happened in the late 1980s.

One of the casualties of the last big price drop in oil like this one was the collapse of the Soviet Union.

However, this is only one of many factors that collapsed the Soviet Union. Many other long term problems also caused the demise of the Soviet Union.

However, it might this time instead of just a recession cause a Great Depression in Russia and trigger a fall in China that is more than a recession caused by free falling property values similar to what the U.S. experienced in 2007 and 2008 and onward. This "Perfect storm" on Russia and China could begin a slow fall into deflation (which Japan might already be in). Also, countries like Japan and others who don't have oil resources within their nations are very sensitive to extreme oil price changes.

So, though for the average citizen on earth the price is welcome as the price of gas and diesel drops more each day. However, whole societies when taken as a whole this could also create recessions leading directly to depressions, especially when prices go up again suddenly to catastrophic heights.

So, since the world has been in an "Oil Economy" for at least 100 years now, extreme changes in oil can do things like in the 1980s like collapse a whole country like it did the Soviet Union or possibly cause both Russia and China's present governments to collapse in the next year or two.

The unknown nature of all this might put the whole world in peril in a variety of heretofore unseen and unknown ways very soon.

Later: I had a conversation with my wife about this while we were out to dinner. Her take was that there is a lot more communication now around the world because of social media etc. So, adaptations and solutions tend to come about in either haphazard or even well thought out ways much more than they would say 20 or more years ago. So, for better and for worse solutions likely will start to come as soon as people start to ask the right questions.

The right question now might be: "Could this Oil price drop cause another Great Depression starting in Russia and moving through China to affect the whole world?"

Another question might be: "If the price of oil bounces back up at some given point, what price will it go up to? And what is that going to do to world markets too."

1 comment:

Grant DeNormandie said...

I have seen estimates that as much as $3 Trillion dollars in oil derivatives could be held by the too big to fail banks. A lot of producers used the banks to lock in a $90 price for their 2015 production. That means the producers will be receiving $90 a barrel for $50 a barrel oil assuming no further price changes. The potential is here to make 2008 look like a cake walk.