Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Is there a real solution to the problem Putin and Assad created in Syria?

The answer has to be "Maybe".

But, I think that is better than "No"

Here are the dynamics of the problem:

Putin got scared of Arab Spring.

Assad got scared of Sunnis overthrowing his Alawite Shia minority government.

They got together and Putin said something like, "I want to keep my warm water port in Syria because it is the only warm water ocean port I have that doesn't freeze up in the winter."

However, when things started to go badly in Syria for Assad and Putin because no one gave up like they expected and this eventually created groups from Al Qaeda like Al Nusra and ISIL Putin decided he needed another warm water port in case Assad eventually fell even with Putin's help. So, Putin took over Crimea so now he has a warm water port for his military and cargo ships there too.

Then Putin realized that he needed roads for trucks to take weapons and other things to Assad through Ukraine to his new warm water port in Crimea. So, he started a war in Eastern Ukraine to control a corridor of roads for trucks to get through with weapons and goods to Assad.

So, this is where we are today. Ukraine is really about Putin wanting a warm water port for Russia as a strategic necessity because otherwise nothing can move out of his northern ports when everything freezes up in the winters there. OR if it can move it is very dangerous to be sailing during the winter no matter how big the ship is with icebergs going by (remember the Titanic?). So, this is where we are today.

So, how does this change?

I think the world has to realize that Russia has real needs and unless those needs are met there is going to be a war.

We don't live in the post war era anymore and the U.S. isn't necessarily still the most dominant player on earth (in a military sense).

So, everything is changing. But, if we understand what the problems are of our potential enemies then we can avoid a war that ends all life on earth. Otherwise, Earth will be gone like the Asteroid belt planet within 10 years or 20 years from now.

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