"The way the damage pattern presents itself is interesting. A lot of people have been saying perhaps it fell off when the aircraft struck the water. But, I have been talking to some experts that have said two things that are interesting: The leading edge (of the flaperon) is not very damaged at all and the trailing edge almost looks like it has been torn like a piece of paper. That would indicate stress damage, in other words it could have been fluttering. And that would suggest that it tore off in flight. And that would suggest that it was diving at a high rate of speed and pieces of it were falling off."
Other reporter: "But that's just speculation at this point."
Miles Obrien: "IT is. But the damage pattern supports that."
end quote from PBS NEWSHOUR
Here is my theory of what likely happened at this point using both facts, logic and intuitiion:
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