At present about 90% if I look at it all from an intuitive perspective. For the Iranians Trump is starving them to death slowly in various ways. From their point of view from a point of honor it might be better to go down fighting than to put up with any more from Trump.
So, this is why I say it's about 90% that there will be war with Iran. If Trump plans this war it would happen in October 2020 because traditionally the U.S. doesn't change presidents during a war just like why Bush II was re-elected after 9-11.
So, likely Trump will drag this out until October 2020. But, I don't think Iran is going to wait that long before they nuke someone. Maybe Riyadh, Saudi Arabia first with a ballistic missile. However, Saudi Arabia also wants nuclear weapons. So, likely we have a nuclear weapons race now between Saudi Arabia and Iran going mostly because of Trump and Bolton's really bad decisions.
By putting Iran into a corner they might have no choice but to come out with all guns blazing at a time of their own choosing. And Trump has no idea what that will be like. But, Iran does.
And the U.S. Cyber attack against Iran might mean this retaliation by Iran might be sooner not later.
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