Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Why is the CDC director warning of an even deadlier bought with Coronavirus next Winter?

Because this Coronavirus is very similar in behavior in some ways to the last world wide flu pandemic that killed 50 million in 1918 worldwide.

For example, only a few thousands  of Americans died of the flu in in the spring of 1918 but the next October 100,000 Americans died in just one month.

Here is a quote regarding how many Americans died then:

The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

end quote from:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html


So, over 1/2 million people died in 1918 from the Spanish Flu just in the U.S.

675,000 people

 So, as the virus spreads through almost everyone this summer and early fall it could kill a ratio based upon present day population compared to the population in 1918.

What would that look like?

103,208,000 people lived in the U.S. in 1918

331.2 million it says when I look it up now. So, an easy way to estimate the deaths if it is similar to 1918 this fall is that between October 2020 and April 2021 by  using a ratio of 3 to 1  we could lose

2,025,000 people between October 2020 and April 2021 if it is the same as the Spanish flu in 1918. This is just a rough estimate by the way.

The reason it wouldn't be like this exactly is because of the scientific education level today in the U.S.  is likely 5 times what it was in 1918. So, because of this I don't think even under the worst case scenario that we could lose over 1 million people from Coronavirus.

However, if it interferes with raising and delivering of food you might lose 10 times that in the U.S. just from starvation.

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