Monday, May 4, 2020

the Data at this point actually points to around 1 million Americans dead from Coronavirus by this time Next year not 90,000

This will likely be true IF it does what the 1918 pandemic did which was to kill 100,000 Americans in 1918 just by the end of October alone. So, on a ratio basis compared then 100,000 equals approximately 300,000 in a ratio of population. And the 675,000 Americans that died from January 1918 until the end of 1919 points also to 3 times that which is
2,025,000

However, since doctors and nurses now know at least 
4 to 10 times as much about medicine than people
did in 1918 I think that around 1 million people dead
by next year around May 1st 2021 (if there is no vaccine) 
is realistic.

So, realistically (at least at this point) the ratio of living 
Americans to dead ones from Coronavirus is likely 
to be close to 1 dead for every 300 Americans by May 2021.

Why is this true?

In order to open businesses more people will be exposed
and bring it home to older relatives and those vulnerable
throughout the population. Some people (especially the young)
and restless will spread it just through the angst of youth.

And this is why likely 1 million Americans are going to 
die of this in the next year.

My hope is that it will be less than this but it will be hard
and more people than now will have to be much more
self disciplined than they have been so far.

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