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Associated Press
Protesters celebrate the capture of a state security vehicle in Cairo Tuesday.
After five days of street violence and
months of political paralysis, Egypt's defense minister fired off what
was widely seen as a warning to sparring political factions and street
rioters that the country's military might intervene to restore order.
While few observers believe the military is eager to return to the
political spotlight, the burst of unrest since last week has dealt a
blow to the flagging economy and led President Mohammed Morsi to impose
an emergency law in three cities that has further unnerved Egyptians.
Egypt's army chief warned that the state
could collapse if the latest political crisis roiling the nation drags
on, but also defended the right of people to protest. Matt Bradley has
the latest on The News Hub. Photo: Reuters.
While few observers believe the Egyptian
military is eager to return to the political spotlight, the burst of
rioting since last week has led to the re-imposition of emergency law in
three cities, unnerved Egyptians and dealt another blow to the flagging
economy. Hani Sabra, Eurasia Group Egypt analyst, joins The News Hub.
Photo: AP.
"The continuation of the conflict between the
different political forces and their differences over how the country
should be run could lead to the collapse of the state and threaten
future generations," Defense Minister Abdel Fattah El Sissi, who is also
commander of the armed forces, said in a speech to cadets that was
widely reported in the Egyptian media.
The comments came amid continued chaos across the country. Clashes
between protesters and police in Cairo prompted the U.S. Embassy to
suspend services Tuesday, as thousands of mourners for victims of recent
violence in the restive city of Port Said chanted for Mr. Morsi's
downfall.
European Pressphoto Agency
Egyptian protesters in Suez, about 93 miles east of Cairo, Egypt, on Monday.
Gen. Sissi's comments underscored the
increasing desperation Egyptians feel as wrangling between Mr. Morsi and
his opponents fails to produce even a semblance of the political
stability needed to calm the streets and stave off economic collapse.
"This is a dangerous situation of continuous confrontation," said Amr
Moussa, a leader of the opposition National Salvation Front, of the
general's comments. "It was a warning and an appeal at the same time."
Gen. Sissi said the army would protect the Suez Canal, around which
many of the recent riots have taken place. The canal is a crucial
waterway for global commerce and a major source of foreign currency.
Egypt's economy was teetering on the brink of collapse even before the recent violence, which has killed at least 50 people.
The fraught, two-year-long transition after three decades of
authoritarian rule has frightened off foreign investors and tourists and
depleted Egypt's reserves. After two years of defending the pound,
Egypt has about $15 billion in foreign reserves—enough for three months
of imports.
A Wave of Protests in Egypt
Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters
A protester stood in front of a burning riot police vehicle on the Kasr Elnile bridge in Cairo Monday.
Policy makers are preparing to restart
long-delayed talks next week with the International Monetary Fund over a
$4.8 billion loan that Egypt's business community hopes will restore
confidence in the economy.
But Egypt's increasingly divisive politics could still scuttle the
deal just as the economy faces the brink of collapse. The IMF may hope
to see a political consensus over the loan's terms, which would include
unpopular measures such as tax increases and cuts to energy subsidies.
"When a country is divided like it is now, it leaves very little room
for making changes," said Ahmed Heikal, the founder and chairman of
Citadel Capital, Egypt's largest private-equity firm. "The train is
headed toward the cliff and we're still arguing about who should be the
conductor."
European Pressphoto Agency
Defense Minister Sissi
Gen. Sissi's comments seemed to be
aimed at nudging politicians toward negotiations before the economy
reaches its breaking point. The military is one of the few institutions
with enough clout to persuade the Islamists and their secular-leaning
opponents to deal with each other.
The general's words also recall the military's actions during the
first days of Egypt's revolution two years ago, when a council of
generals stepped in to lead the country after protests forced former
President Hosni Mubarak to resign. The military's ensuing 17-month rule
was marred by violent protests and instability.
"It wasn't a threat to anyone," said Sameh Saif Al Yazal, a retired
general and director of the government-funded Al Gomhouria Center for
Political and Strategic Studies, of the speech. "It was a message that
he wants to send to everybody that we are going in a very, very bad
direction if we go ahead this way."
The weekend of violence has laid bare
the Brotherhood's growing unpopularity on the Egyptian street—an area
the powerful Islamist group has always considered its political base.
The National Salvation Front is considering discussing the crisis with
the hard-line Islamist Al Nour Party, which have many of the same
criticisms of the president and could isolate Mr. Morsi's Islamist
backers, said Mr. Moussa, a former diplomat and one-time presidential
candidate.
The past weekend has tested Mr. Morsi's
ability to contain escalating unrest. Nationwide clashes began Friday
when thousands of demonstrators marched against Mr. Morsi and his
Islamist allies to mark the second anniversary of Egypt's revolution.
The rallies turned into riots that killed at least 11 people in Suez,
which sits at the mouth of the Suez Canal waterway, on Friday.
The following morning, a Cairo court handed out death sentences for
21 soccer fans in the coastal city of Port Said who were accused of
killing 73 people in a post-match melee last February. Following the
verdict, Port Said residents lashed out at police and state
institutions—attacking the prison that housed the convicts and laying
siege to other government buildings with Molotov cocktails.
On Sunday, unknown gunmen attacked a funeral for victims of the
previous day's violence. By Monday, more than 50 people had died.
Mr. Morsi appeared to stoke even more outrage Sunday when he imposed
an emergency law and a curfew on Suez, Port Said and the nearby city of
Ismailia.
In a snub to Mr. Morsi, thousands of Egyptians walked the streets of
the three cities after the curfew began on Monday evening. Residents
sang, danced and played soccer in the streets in defiance of his order.
On Tuesday, Mr. Morsi's office defended the need for the state of
emergency and explained its legality. The emergency law "will be lifted
once the situation has stabilized in the aforementioned cities, even if
that happens before the expiration of the thirty days specified in the
decree," said a statement.
As the violence has spiraled, the Obama administration has taken a
cautious stance toward Cairo, refusing to publicly condemn Mr. Morsi's
actions.
U.S. officials in recent days have continued to commit Washington to
support nearly $500 million in bilateral economic assistance for Egypt
in 2013, as well as the IMF loan. The Obama administration also has come
out in favor of continuing a proposed sale of F-16 fighter jets to the
Egyptian military.
The White House and State Department, rather than criticizing Mr.
Morsi, have urged Egypt's opposition parties to take up his call for a
national dialogue to help stem the violence.
"We have been gratified to see the president and his government renew
their call for a national dialogue to avoid further violence," State
Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, said Monday. "We call on all
political forces in Egypt to avail themselves of this opportunity."
This stance is increasingly drawing criticism from Washington's Arab
allies, as well as many Egypt analysts, who believe the U.S. is abetting
a larger power grab by Mr. Morsi and his political party, the Muslim
Brotherhood.
These diplomats and analysts said they expected either President
Barack Obama or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to publicly call for
restraint by Cairo, rather than relying on statements and spokesmen.
They said the U.S. should more directly comment on how the Egyptian
government's policies are curtailing hopes in the West that Mr. Morsi
will push forward with political and economic reforms.
"And people wonder why the U.S. appears to be in bed with the Muslim
Brotherhood?" said one senior Arab official whose government is worried
about the Islamists' growing hold of power in Cairo.
The official said the U.S. reluctance to criticize the Egyptian
government has been discussed with the administration "more than any
other subject we've discussed in the last two months. We have agreed to
disagree."
Still, if the violence in Egypt continues, or the military takes
steps to increase its power, many Mideast experts think the Obama
administration will have to take a more aggressive line on Egypt in
coming weeks, even if it won't significantly change events on the
ground. These analysts said Mr. Obama at least will need to establish a
marker on what the U.S. will accept in Egypt, particularly as it will
send a broader message to the region.
"My overall sense is that the administration is discovering that its
overall leverage in Egypt isn't what people think," said Steven Cook, an
Egypt specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Still, we should
be able to signal that we're going to speak out and speak out
forcefully."
A version of this article appeared January 30,
2013, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with
the headline: Egypt Is Warned of 'Collapse'.
end quote from:
The problem is that Egypt is not financially self sufficient. Without aid from Countries like the U.S. the whole thing will collapse. And it is unlikely that the U.S. will support a Constitution with Sharia law. Morsi may have just cut the throat of his own country by not being pragmatic enough and being too idealistic in a religious sense.
However, given the sustainability problems of the whole middle east with about 1/2 of the population now under 30 and half of those with no job prospects, this kind of imbalance causes the collapse of governments throughout the middle east. IF there are no jobs, people can't get married and start their lives, they will of necessity collapse governments. It is just people trying to survive anyway they can.
I personally think that any appearance of solidarity with Morsi's Government by the United States is only superficial and not actual which is the game of politics in the end. The real question is: "Does the United States want another Syria?" The obvious answer is: "No". But now the real question is: "How do NATO nations create a democratic stability in Egypt or help Egypt to do this with without creating another Libya or Syria by accident?" And on top of this there is another question which is even trickier: "Western Big Business Corporations are NOT going to tolerate Sharia Law in Egypt. They might put up with it to some degree in Oil rich nations because of the all the money and profit involved but only because of the money. Sharia law and big business cannot co-exist permanently. So, how does all this work? or not work?"
These are all questions that only the people of Egypt can answer themselves. Personally, I think the likelihood is that the Military will again take charge of Egypt soon from Morsi. Democracy is very hard, and until Egyptians learn how to deal with it, it might not work at first. I think if you look at Pakistan and then look at Egypt you have many of the same types of problems both places. So, if you look at Pakistan's history with democracy I think Pakistan's history with democracy might be Egypt's future with democracy. However, it is well worth all the work to establish checks and balances and democratic rights for all the people. Democracy can bring a future for Egypt. Dictatorships only bring wealth for the leaders, that's all. Everyone else is in relative poverty from then on if it stays a dictatorship like in the past.
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