Russian Bombers Continue Probing U.S. Defenses
Russia’s
recent Cold War-styled probing of North Atlantic defense zones along a
path that could potentially offer its cruise missile-carrying Tu-95
bombers “firing solutions” in an actual nuclear war, is more political
theatre than military threat, says a prominent national security expert.
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Russian Bombers Continue Probing U.S. Defenses
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Russia’s
recent Cold War-styled probing of North Atlantic defense zones along a
path that could potentially offer its cruise missile-carrying Tu-95
bombers “firing solutions” in an actual nuclear war, is more political
theatre than military threat, says a prominent national security expert.
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Tom Nichols, a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College told Forbes that an early September incident in which two Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers were tracked across the North Atlantic near Iceland, Greenland, and northeastern Canada was a training exercise deliberately designed to test West European and U.S. defenses.
“They think they’re communicating messages of strength and resolve by conducting nuclear war exercises,” said Nichols. “If you’re going to train to fly 6000 miles to drop a cruise missile you need to fly 6000 miles to practice, especially if you want to familiarize yourself with the various countries’ reactions along the route.”
A Soviet Tu-95 Bear H aircraft being
escorted by a Canadian Air Force McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornet fighter
in 1987. (Credit: Wikipedia)
“There’s no way that these flights would get anywhere near the U.S. without [Putin] knowing about it,” said Nichols. “He’s not personally directing them, but I have no doubt that he’s fully apprised about what’s going on.”
This follows an account in the Washington Free Beacon that detailed similar Russian bomber flights this spring in which “four Tu-95s and two IL-78 aerial refueling tankers,” made incursions into the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and were met by two F-22 fighters before the Russians appeared to turn back.
A few hours later, however, the two Russian bombers reappeared 50 miles off the northern California coast and NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) again scrambled aircraft, this time two F-15s to make visual contact.
“The [bombers] were in the ADIZ, but at no time did they enter our sovereign airspace,” Maj. Beth Smith, spokesperson for NORAD and the U.S. Northern Command told Forbes. “We do consider this as a spike in activity, but we do assess the [Russian flights] as exercise related.”
Nichols is quick to point out however that in the event of an all out Russian nuclear attack, submarine launched missiles would get here in minutes and Russian land-based missiles in half an hour. By the time their bombers got here, Nichols says World War III would already be over.
“The Russians put all their emphasis on their land-based missile force; that’s their jewel in the crown,” said Nichols. “Russian strategic aviation is kind of the poor stepchild of their armed forces.”
So what’s the point of the Russians even doing these sorts of training missions?
Unless they are going to totally disband that branch of their military they have to train, says Nichols. He notes that Russian strategic aviation — meaning manned bombers that can cover intercontinental distances and drop nuclear weapons — has “pretty much been in the tank since the end of the old Soviet Union.” Thus, Nichols says the Russians are again training for their old missions.
“The number and visibility of these exercises are there to make a political point,” Nichols continues. “Part of the reason Putin does it, is so that westerners will sit around asking: ‘Why is he doing that? He must mean business’.”
Are you saying that Putin wants a new Cold War?
“Without a doubt that’s what he wants,” said Nichols. “Putin is a guy who gets all weepy at the sound of the Soviet national anthem. He’s not a very flexible or overly-creative person and he’s running the country in the default Soviet-mode that he learned as a KGB officer. He doesn’t know what else to do.”
The Moscow Times also recently reported that General Yury Yakubov, a senior Russian defense ministry official interviewed by the Russian Interfax news agency, “has called for Russia to revamp its military doctrine; to clearly identify the U.S. and its NATO allies as Moscow’s enemy number one and spell out the conditions under which Russia would launch a preemptive nuclear strike.”
Would Putin ever consider launching a first nuclear strike?
“I don’t think Putin is crazy enough to do that,” said Nichols, “but he believes there’s political value in looking like he’s willing to do it.”
When asked if the U.S. would be changing its defensive posture in light of this recent uptick in strategic Russian activity, Smith told Forbes, “for operational security reasons, we cannot discuss force laydown activities; how we arrange and/or posture our forces. [But] NORAD remains vigilant and ready to respond to threats to the homeland.”
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