Tuesday, December 16, 2014

None other than T. Boone Pickens predicts oil will be back at $100 within 12 to 18 months.

In the previous article T. Boone Pickens says that oil will be back at $100 within 12 to 18 months. However, the road to there might be interesting for the whole world. It's unsure what will happen to countries like Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria to name a few during that 12 to 18 months time at prices likely below $50 to $60 or less.

I also believe it will be 1 to 2 years before the world oil producers will have had enough of oil prices being that low and satisfied they have put out of business most of the smaller shale gatherers and oil drillers during that time.

Many in the Oil business are hoping to drive into bankruptcy their competition. So, in some ways this is a business war to end all business wars happening right now. It reminds me of how Internet companies could "Give Away" their wares for free until their market share was high enough where they could charge and make money during especially the 1980s and 1990s and sometimes even into the 2000s.

However, this time this is an "Overhead" war. So, people with the highest overhead in the shale oil drilling and standard oil drilling might be the first to go out of business and cease to be competition to countries like Saudi Arabia and others. Three of Saudi Arabia's competitors now are Russia, Iran and the U.S. shale oil and oil drillers and producers of oil.

This is a mass "Shake out" of any oil businesses that are too "debt rich" and not enough "Capital Rich" to survive this next year or two worldwide. So, those with the least debts and bills are the most likely to survive these times.

However, Putin is the "Wild Card" in all this. For example, what if he "declares war on Saudi Arabia for example and bombs their oil wells out of existence?

This is one of my concerns at present in the world. By doing this he could quickly raise the price of oil.

However, this might also get most nations on earth angry enough to go to war with Russia including China. So, this is unlikely to happen unless Putin is really feeling pushed into a corner like a wounded Tiger.

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