Slumping commodity prices, a disappointing U.S. retail sales number and the World Bank's cut to its 2015 global growth forecast triggered a flight from "risk" assets Wednesday morning. In recent trading, the Dow was down nearly 1% while commodity prices hit a 12-year low as copper suffered its biggest drop in six years. On the flip side, U.S. Treasury yields fell to record levels and gold prices rose as traders searched for "safe havens."
The 0.9% drop in December U.S. retail sales was particularly troubling in the context of the World Bank cutting its 2015 global growth forecast to 3% vs. 3.4% previously. The U.S. is shaping up to be the globe's main engine of growth as the year starts, which itself "does not make for a rosy outlook for the world," as the World Bank's chief economist told The WSJ. But the bullish case for the U.S. rests in large part on hopes 2015 will mark a rebound for U.S. consumer spending amid signs of an improving job market, albeit without much wage growth; Wednesday's retail sales figure challenges those assumptions.
The 0.9% drop in overall U.S. retail sales was much worse than expected, but not shocking because falling gas prices were expected to hit the headline figure. But a 0.3% drop in retail sales excluding autos and gas was wildly off the consensus for a rise of 0.5%.
"What was not expected was broad based weakness spread through nine of the thirteen major retail categories," writes Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG. "Importantly, core retail sales – which matter for GDP estimates, declined by 0.4% whereas expectations were looking for an increase of 0.4%. Needless to say, that is a terrible miss."
A Terrible Miss
Again, combined with slumping commodity prices -- an indication of the global economy's weakness -- that 'terrible miss' makes it much more challenging to make a bullish case for stocks.
"The change of direction here [in the global economy] is alarming when combined with the steady fall in commodity prices, deflation pretty much everywhere...combined with everybody has had it with central bank intervention," Henry Blodget tells me in the accompanying video. "There is no political will to do anything. If we are headed for trouble globally it's going to be tough to do anything."
The 0.9% drop in December U.S. retail sales was particularly troubling in the context of the World Bank cutting its 2015 global growth forecast to 3% vs. 3.4% previously. The U.S. is shaping up to be the globe's main engine of growth as the year starts, which itself "does not make for a rosy outlook for the world," as the World Bank's chief economist told The WSJ. But the bullish case for the U.S. rests in large part on hopes 2015 will mark a rebound for U.S. consumer spending amid signs of an improving job market, albeit without much wage growth; Wednesday's retail sales figure challenges those assumptions.
The 0.9% drop in overall U.S. retail sales was much worse than expected, but not shocking because falling gas prices were expected to hit the headline figure. But a 0.3% drop in retail sales excluding autos and gas was wildly off the consensus for a rise of 0.5%.
"What was not expected was broad based weakness spread through nine of the thirteen major retail categories," writes Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG. "Importantly, core retail sales – which matter for GDP estimates, declined by 0.4% whereas expectations were looking for an increase of 0.4%. Needless to say, that is a terrible miss."
A Terrible Miss
Again, combined with slumping commodity prices -- an indication of the global economy's weakness -- that 'terrible miss' makes it much more challenging to make a bullish case for stocks.
"The change of direction here [in the global economy] is alarming when combined with the steady fall in commodity prices, deflation pretty much everywhere...combined with everybody has had it with central bank intervention," Henry Blodget tells me in the accompanying video. "There is no political will to do anything. If we are headed for trouble globally it's going to be tough to do anything."
Related: Energy slump isn't the bulls' only problem: "Everyone is seeing the cloud vs. the silver lining"
That is the "disaster scenario," according to Blodget who admittedly has been early (and wrong thus far) in forecasting doom for the stock market. But equity valuations are stretched on a historic basis and, as noted here, trends for S&P 500 earnings growth and capEx spending for 2015 are already under severe pressure amid devastation in the energy sector, the flattening yield curve hitting financials and the strong dollar hitting all U.S. multinationals, notably tech.
Furthermore, days like yesterday where rallies are sold -- seemingly for no reason -- suggest a change in tenor and trader sentiment, further evinced by the selling in former high-flyers like Tesla today and GoPro yesterday. (Full disclosure: I am long Tesla.)
Don't Fight the Fed
While he's right about the lack of political will to act -- especially in the U.S. with a GOP-controlled Congress and despite the federal budget deficit hitting a 7-year low -- I'm not convinced Henry is right about central bankers being powerless or unable to change the tide. News that a top EU court gave a green light to the European Central Bank's quantitative easing program did give futures a boost early Wednesday, albeit fleeting. In short, the ECB is just getting started in catching up to the aggressive actions of the U.S. Fed and Bank of Japan, and austerity is becoming a dirty word in Europe, ex-Germany.
Furthermore, the People's Bank of China has shown a willingness to support lending when it feels the need to do so and China has ample firepower to stimulate its economy, which would certainly boost global growth.
Finally, recent statements from Janet Yellen and other Fed officials show the U.S. central bank is going to remain "patient" before raising rates. And if current trends of slowing global growth and collapsing commodity prices persist, don't be surprised if the conversation doesn't shift from "when will the Fed raise rates" to "Is the Fed going to do another round of QE?"
In any case, I"m pretty sure someone at the Fed right now is going through the "tool kit" Ben Bernanke left for Yellen, 'just in case.'
Finally, recent statements from Janet Yellen and other Fed officials show the U.S. central bank is going to remain "patient" before raising rates. And if current trends of slowing global growth and collapsing commodity prices persist, don't be surprised if the conversation doesn't shift from "when will the Fed raise rates" to "Is the Fed going to do another round of QE?"
In any case, I"m pretty sure someone at the Fed right now is going through the "tool kit" Ben Bernanke left for Yellen, 'just in case.'
Aaron Task is Editor-in-Chief of Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/-doomdsay-scenario--comes-into-focus-as-stocks--commodities-slump-151108219.html
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