The ISIL Phenomenon

The ISIL pheonomen is a spinoff of Arab Spring which was caused actually by overpopulation throughout the middle East if you want to look at the cause in a non-religious way. So, making the birth control pill difficult or impossible to use caused first Assad, who was killing Sunnis and ISIL rose up first to defeat Assad, realized they couldn't because of Russia and Iran's alliance with Assad and decided instead to create a Caliphate instead throughout Syria and Iraq to start with.

However, then we have the response from the U.S. and Europe and other countries. The first thing is observing the ISIL phenomenon and seeing there is basically an unlimited amount of donation money and young men who are likely going to join this movement from extremist Sunni families throughout the world.

So, it becomes a dance of Europe and the U.S. to continue to degrade ISIL's ability to gain territory while bombing and straffing their soldiers on the ground. This way their capacity to take new territory is lessened and they are forced to move from place to place on bicycles or motorcycles or both which aren't practical to hit with a hellfire missile unless these are captains or above with a record for success as soldiers.

So, What I'm observing is a constant degrading of ISIL's capacities ongoing for several years at least without sending in American or European soldiers. Part of this is the fact that neither the Europeans or the Americans or Canadians are going to stand for movies of their soldiers being tortured beheaded etc. especially across places like CNN and Fox News forever. This just isn't going to fly after the last 15 years we have been through now since 9-11.

So, over time as more soldiers die, progress by ISIL cannot be made in setting up a permanent Caliphate, Europe and the U.S. will find more and more ways to completely destroy any viable economy from existing under ISIL.

However, finding a cost effective way to do this is another story entirely. And personally I don't see a way to do this outside of dropping a neutron bomb which would kill any living thing on those areas for 20 to 50 years but not destroy cars, trucks, tanks, motorcycles etc. And unless ISIL becomes much worse a problem to Europe and the U.S. I don't see us nuking ISIL territory off the map completely as a last resort of frustration.