Sunday, July 5, 2015

As it happened: The morning of Greek Referendum Day

Presently as I compile and comment on all this it is after 7pm Sunday night after the referendum in Greece (And 9 am Sunday where I live).

As it happened: The morning of Greek Referendum Day

Greece is split as 10 million voters face the choice of saying 'Oxi' (no) or 'Nai' (yes) to Europe's bail-out conditions and Greece's future in the euro




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Greece voted on Sunday on whether to accept more austerity in exchange for international aid, in a high-stakes referendum likely to determine whether it leaves the euro-currency area after seven years of economic pain.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis leaves a polling booth before casting his ballot at a polling station in Athens Photo: REUTERS/Jean-Paul Pelissier
• Polls close at 5pm BST with first official projection from 7pm
• EU Schulz: Greeks will need a new currency after 'No'
• One of big four banks on brink of running out of notes
• Central bank governor could take charge of technocratic government
• France: lets not repeat another Treaty of Versaillest
Greeks brace themselves in the 'Neighbourhood of the Gods'
Time to face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now
Referendum gallery

If you're Greek and voting today, get in touch with your thoughts: mehreen.khan@telegraph.co.uk

Greek Referendum Day results live

13.00

Renzi: We have to keep talking - Merkel knows this

Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi has said discussions with Greece have to resume as of Monday, telling the Rome newspaper Il Messaggero:
"We must start talking to each other again - no one knows that more than Angela Merkel".
"When you see a pensioner weeping in front of a bank or people queuing for cash points, you realise that a country as important as Greece - for the world and for its own culture - cannot end up like this."
He added: "It's impossible to save Greece without the commitment of the Greek government: reforming pensions, fighting tax evasion, the new labour market all depend on them."

12.50

German foreign minister: Europe will forfeit credibility over Grexit

Frank-Walter Steinmeier has spoken to Tagesspiegel am Sonntag today and warned of the reputational hit the EU will take if Greece exits the euro, reports Melanie Hall from Berlin.
He also adds that a 'No' vote will make negotiations harder, but will not inexorably lead to an ejection from the EU. Here are his some of his words:
Quote There are strong centrifugal forces tugging at Europe’s foundations.
We knew that whoever pushes for a withdrawal of Greece from the eurozone as a solution to all the problems was falling short. Even if we are able to cope financially and politically with such a development, the signal of a “Grexit” to other countries outside of the EU would be disastrous. China, India and the USA are watching closely to see whether we can overcome this crisis or fail the challenge. Europe would lose its reputation and forfeit its credibility in parts of the world."
I don’t want to speculate about the consequences of a rejection. But even if the Greeks should give a resounding “no", on Monday Greece is still a member of the EU. But a “no” will by no means make it easier to come to a compromise. Quite the opposite.”

12.37

Bank of Greece to request more emergency cash

That's not a surprise. Regardless of the outcome of tonight, the banking system is on the brink. The central bank of Greece is set to ask the ECB to turn its liquidity tap on tonight and also review the €60 ATM limit. In the case of a 'No' vote, no ELA is likely to be forthcoming from Mr Draghi and co.
Even if Greeks vote 'Yes', the ECB is unlikely to take the decision to restore banking stability until there is a new government in place.

12.24

We're not getting any offiical exit polls today, but this probably best sums it up: both sides think they'll win it

12.09

"Greece will be thrown back in time"

Athenian Stavros Tsiboukaki has been in touch. He's voted 'Yes' this morning as "It is the only reasonable alternative, although way too late. The reforms should have been implemented in full much earlier," writes Stavros.
He continues:
E-mail It's a gloomy atmosphere here in Athens today. There's not many happy faces around. Saddened, frustrated and anxious people dominates at the ballots.
Regardless of the result, celebrations will be short lived. Difficult times will prevail for many years. Greece will be thrown back in time.

11.42

One of 'big four' banks on verge of collapse; ATMs to start rationing funds

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is in Athens soaking up the referendum vibe. He's been speaking to Syriza officials who report that voter turnout is "high", in the capital at least.
AEP also reports that ATM machines are likely ration funds to last "nano-seconds longer" and that one of the big four banks in the country is unlikely to last the weekend.


Right now, Greeks can withdraw a daily limit of €60 under capital controls imposed last week. The government has insisted banks will re-open on Tuesday, but without a fresh liquidity injection that seems all but impossible.
They are down to their last €500m according to reports.

11.33

The ECB ready to do whatever it takes for Greece?

More French support for Greece today. ECB board member Benoit Coeure has said the Bank stands ready to take additional measures amid the uncertainty.
"In the current circumstances of great uncertainty in Europe and the world, the ECB has been clear that if we need to do more we will do more. We will find the necessary instruments," Mr Coeure said at an economics conference in Aix-en-Provence southern France.
"Our will to act in this matter should not be doubted."
All eyes are likely to be on the institution come Monday, regardless of the outcome. Should it be 'No', the ECB could withdraw its emergency funding for Greece all together, leading to a collapse of the banking system and hastening an exit from the euro.
In the event of a Yes and the prospect of a deal, the liquidity tap could be turned on again, lifting capital controls and seeing banks re-open over the next few weeks. That's still a very big 'If' mind.

11.20

Greece needs debt relief

The chorus of calls for Greek debt relief have grown louder after the IMF released a stark analysis of the country's mounting debt pile.
Today former chancellor Alistair Darling, has joined in, telling Sky's Murnaghan show, creditors must write off "substantial amounts of Greek debt" followed by a serious reform programme if this crisis is to be brought to an end, reports Matthew Holehouse.
Europe has been loath to provide any debt restructuring until the country enacts more economic reforms, despite the IMF's warnings (see here) .
But yesterday former IMF bail-out chief Ashoka Mody also hit out at the IMF for disingenuously ignoring all its own recommendations about how to avoid economic crisis and now imposing austerity in the midst of a dangerous debt-deflationary cycle.
Here's a snippet:
As an international organization responsible for global financial stability, it is the IMF’s role to explain clearly and honestly the economic parameters of a bailout negotiation. The Greeks, many said, benefited from low interest rates and repayments stretched out over many years.
Therefore, no debt relief was needed. But, of course, as the IMF now makes clear, if a country has to repay about 4 percent of its income each year over the next 40 years and that country has poor growth prospects precisely because repaying that debt will lower growth, then debt is not sustainable. If this report had been made public earlier, the tone of the public debate and the media’s boorish stereotyping of Greeks and its government would have been balanced by greater clarity on the Greek position.
But the problem with the IMF report is much more serious. Its claims to having learned lessons from the past years are as self-serving as its call on other creditors to provide the debt relief. The report insistently points at the Greek failings but fails to ask if the creditors misdiagnosed the Greek patient and continued to damage Greek economic recovery. Protected by the authority and respect that the IMF commands, it is easy to lay the blame on the Greeks whose rebuttals are treated as more hysterical outbursts of an (ultra) “radical” government.
It's worth reading in full here.

11.07

Greek opposition leader confronted by 'No' voters

Leader of the centrist To Potami party, Stavros Theodorakis has been shouted down by Oxi supporters after casting his 'Yes' vote today. Mr Theodorakis has promised to vote in favour of any deal to keep Greece in Europe, and paid a visit to Brussels a few weeks ago to affirm his support to EU officials.

10.51

France: let's not repeat the Treaty of Versailles tomorrow

France is probably the last remaining (vocal) ally of the current Greek government in the eurozone right now. The country's economics minister Emmanuel Macron has warned against Europe having another "Treaty of Versailles" moment with Greece, should they vote 'No' tonight.
Versailles famously imposed punitive reparations conditions on a war-guilty Germany after World War One. The demand for compensation was widely seen as stoking an economic crisis in the inter-war years, leading to grievances that eventually gave rise to a full blown hyperinflationery crash, and the ascendancy of Hitler.
Mr Macron has also called for Europe to bear "collective responsbility" for the current Greek crisis.


10.43

Carney, Cameron and Osborne to meet tomorrow to discuss Greek fall-out

George Osborne told the BBC's Andrew Marr show this morning that he will be meeting with the PM and the governor of the Bank of England tomorrow to prepare for the fall-out from tonight's vote.
“Whatever Greece decides, Britain is prepared,” the Chancellor told the BBC.
“We have the plans in place for whatever the outcome is, the prime minister will be chairing a meeting tomorrow morning with myself, the governor of the Bank of England, and others, to assess the situation.”

10.25

Yanis Varoufakis: we need to protect democracy

The Greek finance minister is next to make an appearence at an Athens polling station this morning. Yesterday he hit out at creditors "terrorism" in Greece, and has told reporters today: "Greeks have chance to give view on Eurogroup's last ultimatum, show democracy & euro can coexist".

He's less forthcoming on the question of whether or not the banks will be open after Tuesday however.

10.16

Tsipras: no one can ignore the will of a people

And just in case you missed it, here's Alexis Tsipras casting his vote earlier this morning

Here's what he had to say in full:
Quote Many people can ignore the will of a government. But no one can ignore the will of a people.
Today is a day of celebration, because democracy is a celebration, it is joy. And when democracy overcomes fear and extortion, then it becomes a redemption and a way out.
The Greek people today send a very strong message. A message of dignity and determination. The message that they hold a choice in their hands. No one can ignore the will of a people to live. To live with determination and take their life in their own hands.
I am certain that from tomorrow we will have broken a path for all the peoples in Europe. A path of return to the founding values of democracy and solidarity in Europe, sending a strong message of determination, not only to stay but also to live with dignity in Europe.
To do well and work as equals among equals. Let us therefore make this act of strong will, this celebratory act of democracy, an act of determination for a better future for all of us, both in Greece and Europe. I am very optimistic.”

10.15

Greek president urges unity

President of the Republic Prokopis Pavlopoulos has cast his vote and called upon the country to remain united, regardless of the outcome of Sunday's referendum.
"This day belongs to the citizen alone. He is called to decide, in accordance to his conscience and exclusively guided by the national best interests, on the future of our country and our people.
I add only this, the historically self-evident: regardless of the outcome of the referendum, we have an obligation to tread the difficult path of tomorrow with absolute unity. This is what our forebears did at crucial times and this is our obligation today. We proceed, therefore, all together."

10.10

A reluctant yes

Colin Freeman is in south Athens and has spoken to one family who sum up how many Greeks are feeling this morning, in providing a very reluctant 'Nai' to the bail-out terms.
At a polling station in the Voula neighbourhood of south Athens, the Kypreou family would like to able to tick both the 'Yes' and the 'No' boxes.
"Yes to stay in Europe and no to more austerity," said Vasilis Spiros, 38, there with his wife Maria, also 38, and son Spiros, 2.
"But that option isn't there, so we've just voted for 'yes' instead. A 'no' vote would be catastrophe."

10.00

George Osborne for Oxi?

Matthew Holehouse has been listening in on a reticent Chancellor this morning on the BBC this morning.
On the Andrew Marr show, George Osborne refuses to join other EU leaders in saying how he'd vote - saying we must "respect Greek democracy". He notes the Greeks appear not to be listening to the international community.
He says he has sympathy for the Greek people; it is not their fault, but that of some "pretty terrible governments."
He goes on to make his routine warning that deficit reduction in the UK will protect "us from whatever the world throws at us".

09.33

EU chief: Greeks need a new currency tomorrow if they vote 'No'

President of the European Parliament, German Martin Schulz has already called for a new technocratic government, warned of a social crisis, and has now made clear that Greeks can no longer use the euro if they vote 'No' today. He told German radio this morning:
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment."
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

Mr Schulz is ignoring the fact that any country in the world, including Greece, can use the euro even if they're not part of the monetary union. But, the point he seems to be getting at is that the government will have to start thinking about IOUs to pay their workers and pensioners given the liquidity crunch that is being suffered by the country right now. Once that starts happening, the paper begins to be traded very much like a de facto new currency. It's a slippery slope to a euro exit.

09.10

Former PM Antonis Samaras casts his vote

There's little doubt over whether New Democracy's Antonis Samaras will be picking Oxi or Nai today. The conservative former PM has backed a vote to stay in Europe at all costs. At one point, his party even threatened to boycott the referendum in protest that it was even being put to a public vote. As PM Mr Samaras held elections in late December which eventually resulted in the election of Syriza.
Should Greeks now support 'Yes', he could once again become a pivotal figure in any possible national unity government that could emerge if Mr Tsipras steps down.

09.05

"What have we done to offend the Gods?"

Our man in Athens, Colin Freeman has been talking to some anxious locals in the Plaka neighbourhood of Athens ahead of today's referendum
"I will vote 'Yes', as I want us to stay in Europe," said Adania Economea, 42, the owner of the Verandah cafe in Plaka. "But it is terrible that this is separating us all into 'Yes' and 'No' camps.
"My 80-year-old mother has been telling me about the years of the civil war in Greece, which I can now imagine as she described. We are not at that stage yet, of course, but I fear things could get very difficult."

"People are waiting for war," said Kimaratos Panagiotis, a butcher chopping up lamb legs in the local meat market. "Business is double what it was, as the rumours are going around that we are going to run out of meat."
If we vote 'No' and then leave the Eurozone, at least we will have control of our own destiny again. I can't believe that some of those Greeks who have suffered just like I have are likely to be voting "Yes".
"They have just been listening to the propaganda in the media, which says we are going to becoming like Africa if we leave the Eurozone."

09.00

Alexis Tsipras casts his vote

The Greek PM has taken the media by suprise, casting his vote in Athens this morning. After casting his ballot, Mr Tsipras told the hoarde of waiting journalists: "As of tomorrow we will have opened a new road for all the peoples of Europe, a road that leads back to the founding values of democracy and solidarity in Europe."
A 'No' vote, he said, "will send a message of determination, not only to stay in Europe but to live with dignity in Europe."



08.44

Voting begins

Voting has been open for just under four hours in Greece and we're getting our first trickle of ballot box pics

An Orthodox priest puts a referendum vote in the ballot box at a school

08.00

Greek referendum day arrives

Hello and welcome to today's live coverage of referendum day in Greece. July 5 2015 marks the most pivotal day in Greece's 14-year membership of the euro.
Greek citizens from the age of 18 will be able to vote in their local districts to say 'Nai' (yes) or 'Oxi' to the country's bail-out deal.
The voting booths opened at 7am local time (5am BST) and will close around 7pm (5pm BST). There are no official exit polls, but we should have the first results coming in from around 7pm London time.
Here is the question that awaits on the ballot paper:

Our International Business Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is in Athens today and bought news last night of the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz who warned of an impending health and social crisis if Greeks choose 'Oxi' tonight.
Mr Schulz, who has previously called for a technocratic government to replace Alexis Tsipras's Syriza, said yesterday: "Without new money, salaries won't be paid, the health system will stop functioning, the power network and public transport will break down."
The warnings echo a chorus of other EU officials who insist tonight's referendum result is a verdict on whether or not Greece can remain in the euro.
Mr Tsipras has maintained that it firmly is not. Should Greeks back him and deliver 'the Big No' he says it will embolden his government to go back to the negotiating table and secure better terms for the country's bail-out future.
Should it be a 'Yes', Mr Tsipras has indicated he is willing to step down from government. His finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said categorically he will resign from his post.

The polls show the result is too close to call. Four polls carried out on Friday showed the 'Yes' camp was marginally ahead. A fifth put the 'No' camp 0.5pc in front. These are all within the range of error.
One senior German official voiced his concern of the "nightmare" scenario tonight: "The nightmare result would be 51-49pc in either direction ....And the chances of this are not insignificant" he told Reuters.
We'll be bringing you all the permutations of what result could mean for the country's government, economy and banking system, so make sure to stick with us.
On a lighter note, here's this morning's Matt cartoon taking on the referendum in its own inimitable way.
end quote from:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719265/Greek-euro-referendum-day-votes-close-results-live.html

The morning of Greek Referendum Day : as it happened

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