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There's no honeymoon for Donald Trump in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, …
President Trump at 100 Days: No honeymoon, but no regrets (POLL)
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WatchA look at Trump's presidency as it reaches 100-day mark
There's no honeymoon for Donald Trump
in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but also no regrets: He
approaches his 100th day in office with the lowest approval rating at
this point of any president in polls since 1945 –- yet 96 percent of those who supported him in November say they'd do it again today.
His challenges are considerable. Majorities say Trump lacks the judgment
and the temperament it takes to serve effectively. Six in 10 doubt his
honesty and trustworthiness, see him as out of touch and don't think he
understands the problems of people like them. Fifty-six percent say he
hasn't accomplished much in his first 100 days. And 55 percent say he
doesn't follow a consistent set of principles in setting policy (though
fewer see this as a problem, 48 percent).
All told, 42 percent of Americans approve of Trump's performance as
president, while 53 percent disapprove. That compares to an average of
69-19 percent for past presidents at or near 100 days in office -– for
example, 69-26 percent for Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama.
Still, the national survey also finds some brighter spots for the
president –- chiefly in pushing for jobs and in foreign policy –- as
well as deep popularity problems for the opposition party. Sixty-seven
percent say the Democratic Party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans, even more than say the same about Trump, and similar to the Republican Party
(62 percent). That's a steeply negative turn for the Democrats, 19
percentage points more critical than when last asked three years ago,
including especially steep losses in their own base.
Trump's better grades include broad 73 percent approval of his
pressuring companies to keep jobs in the United States –- even most
Democrats, liberals and nonwhites approve, three groups that are broadly
critical of Trump more generally. And more than half, 53 percent, see
him as a strong leader, although that compares with 77 percent for Obama
at this stage.
On one specific issue, a plurality, 46 percent, says he's handling the
situation with North Korea "about right," as opposed to being too
aggressive (37 percent) or too cautious (just 7 percent). Similarly, a
recent ABC/Post poll found 51 percent support for Trump's missile
strikes on Syria; together these results make his foreign policy a
comparative bright spot. They're also a contrast with Obama, seen by 53
percent as too cautious in his foreign policy in fall 2014, as he dealt
with Syria and Russian intervention in Ukraine.
As noted, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates,
finds no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters. Among
those who report having voted for him in November, 96 percent today say
it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it. And if a rerun
of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the
possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote among 2016 voters.
In two break-even results, Americans divide, 44-41 percent, on whether
Trump is keeping most of his campaign promises, and likewise divide,
35-35 percent, on whether he's doing a better or worse job than they
expected. Views turn negative, as noted, on how much Trump has
accomplished in his first three months. Forty-two percent say a great
deal or good amount, but 56 percent say not much or nothing.
Again, Obama scored far better on all three of these measures at his
100th day, 60-26 percent on keeping his promises, 54-18 percent on
performing better vs. worse than expected and 63-36 percent on his
accomplishments.
There are difficulties for Trump in other results, as well. Just 37
percent approve of the major changes in federal spending he's proposed
(50 percent disapprove) and only 34 percent approve of his having given
his daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner,
major positions in his administration (61 percent disapprove). (There
are only three groups in which more than half approve of these
appointments –- Republicans, 69 percent; evangelical white Protestants,
56 percent; and conservatives, 51 percent.) And rejecting Trump's
criticisms, the public by 58-36 percent says the federal courts that
have blocked his immigration orders are "acting rightly as a check on
the president's powers" rather than wrongly interfering with them.
The president does better on another item on which he's been criticized
in some quarters –- spending substantial time at commercial properties
he owns, chiefly his Mar-a-Lago resort. Forty-three percent see this as a
conflict of interest because it promotes those properties, but 54
percent say it's not a conflict because he has the right to go where he
wants.
The 100-day point has been used as a benchmark since Franklin D.
Roosevelt's administration, but, like any such time stamp, it has
questionable predictive value. As noted, it usually marks the height of a
president's honeymoon in public opinion. It's also situational. In
available data, the highest rating at or near 100 days was Harry
Truman's 87 percent in a Gallup poll
when he took office after the Roosevelt's death; yet Truman's career
average was 47 percent approval. The lowest at 100 days was Gerald
Ford's 48 percent after he succeeded (and pardoned) Richard Nixon, yet
Ford's career average was about the same as Truman's. Jimmy Carter and
George H.W. Bush had 63 and 71 percent 100-day approval ratings –- yet
neither won a second term.
Current politics, moreover, are marked by especially sharp partisanship,
a central reason for Trump's comparatively poor rating. Seventy-nine
percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of
his job performance; just 12 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning
independents agree. Obama at 100 days did better in his base, with 93
percent approval from leaned Democrats, but also had 40 percent from
leaned Republicans.
As mentioned, Trump's challenges don't mean the opposition is in good
shape. In March 2014, 48 percent of Americans said the Democratic Party
was out of touch with the concerns of most people. Today 67 percent say
so. And the biggest change has occurred chiefly among the party's own
typical loyalists, with "out of touch" ratings up 33 points among
liberals, 30 points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents
and 26 points among moderates and nonwhites alike.
Vote again?
Among Americans who say they voted in the 2016 election, 46 percent say
they voted for Hillary Clinton and 43 percent for Trump, very close to
the 2-point margin in the actual popular vote results. However, while
Trump would retain almost all of his support if the election were held
again today (96 percent), fewer of Clinton's supporters say they’d stick
with her (85 percent), producing a 40-43 percent Clinton-Trump result
in this hypothetical re-do among self-reported 2016 voters.
That's not because former Clinton supporters would now back Trump; only 2
percent of them say they'd do so, similar to the 1 percent of Trump
voters who say they'd switch to Clinton. Instead, they're more apt to
say they'd vote for a third-party candidate or wouldn’t vote.
In a cautionary note to her party, Clinton's 6-point drop in a
hypothetical mulligan election relates to views of whether the
Democratic Party is in touch with peoples' concerns. Although the sample
sizes are small, those who say the party is out of touch are less
likely to say they'd support Clinton again, compared with those who see
it as in touch.
Still, there's no strong evidence that defectors primarily come from
groups that favored Bernie Sanders in the primary. There are no broad
differences by age, and liberals are 9 points more likely than moderates
and conservatives to stick with Clinton. Similarly, nonwhites are 10
points more likely than whites to say they would not support Clinton
again, with more than a third of them heading to the Libertarian
candidate, Gary Johnson.
Approval groups
Trump's approval rating among groups differs in familiar patterns from
the election. Fifty-four percent of whites approve of his job
performance; just 19 percent of nonwhites (including 22 percent of
Hispanics and 6 percent of blacks) agree. His approval rating is 15
points lower among the youngest adults compared with seniors. It's 67
percent among conservatives vs. 37 percent among moderates and 9 percent
among liberals. And it's 73 percent among evangelical white
Protestants, a GOP mainstay.
Trump's rating is 10 points higher among whites who lack a college
degree than among those who have one. Indeed, again echoing the
election, he reaches 65 percent approval among non-college white men,
vs. 40 percent among college-educated white women.
The economys another factor; while it doesn’t guarantee presidential
approval, a strong or improving economy at least makes it easier to
achieve. Today 30 percent say the economy is improving, vs. 18 percent
who say it’s getting worse, with a plurality, 49 percent, saying it’s
staying the same. Among those who think it’s improving, 83 percent
approve of Trump’s job performance, while among those who think it’s
staying the same, just 29 percent approve, as do only 10 percent of
those who say it’s getting worse.
Of course, the result likely is bi-directional – views of the economy
color views of the president, but views of the president also influence
views of the economy. Indeed, 62 percent of Republicans think the
economy’s improving; just a quarter of independents and 12 percent of
Democrats agree.
There are notable differences among groups on other questions as well.
One is a large age effect on whether or not Trump is in touch with
people’s concerns – 71 percent of under 30s say not, as do 65 percent of
those age 30 to 39, declining to 52 percent – still a majority – among
those 40+.
Additionally, 62 percent of Democrats say Trump is not keeping his
promises, while 77 percent of Republicans say he is keeping them.
(Independents split evenly.) As with views of the future economy, that’s
an example of motivated reasoning – sharply different assessments of
the same object, informed by partisan predispositions. Whatever changes
in the Trump administration, this phenomenon – typical of all politics –
likely won’t.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and
cellular telephone April 17-20, 2017, in English and Spanish, among a
random national sample of 1,004 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 31-24-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates
of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt
Associates of Cambridge, Massachusetts. See details on the survey’s
methodology here.
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