A Few Cracks Appear Near Yellowstone And Suddenly Everyone's Shouting 'Supervolcano Eruption!'
It's the opening scene of a Hollywood blockbuster movie: Dwayne Johnson, a charming and nimble scientist, discovers cracks opening up in the ground near Yellowstone National Park. Within hours the entire Yellowstone supervolcano is erupting while Mr. Johnson works tirelessly to carry each bison to safety while single-handedly plugging up the volcano with that expanding foam stuff.
However, this isn't a Hollywood movie and we certainly couldn't afford The Rock, it is just a few cracks nearby Yellowstone National Park and everyone is suddenly shouting of the imminent supervolcano eruption that's not happening. Let's be clear, Yellowstone supervolcano is not erupting and you won't hear about it from the Daily Express first.
So where did the blown out of proportion scare tactics come from? The National Park Service issued a statement that Hidden Falls and Inspiration Point in Grand Teton National Park are closed due to "recently expanding cracks and fissures" in a rock face at Hidden Falls.
To be clear, the primary concern of the park officials is that the cracks will expand and cause rock falls in areas where tourists would have been. There's no set date when the areas will be open to tourists again as park officials assess the cracks, the rate of their growth, and the stability of the rock face.
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Of course, a few eager journalists saw this statement and despite knowing anything about geology, volcanoes, or how to differentiate between two separate national parks, a Hollywoodesque story of the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting was born.
Let's Put This In Context - What Is The Real Status Of The Yellowstone Supervolcano
The fissures found in outcrops along Hidden Falls, an area often used for rock climbing, are not out of the ordinary. Several climbers found a 100 foot long crack in the outcrop face of Hidden Falls, which prompted park officials to close the area out of concern for the stability of the rock face.
You have likely heard of the devastating potential of the Yellowstone supervolcano and I'm not here to underplay its destructive potential. If you take a look at the diagram below from the USGS of some of the largest eruptions in known history, Yellowstone makes several appearances.
When Yellowstone does erupt next it has the capacity to eject 240 cubic miles of magma, send the planet into a decade-long volcanic winter, and create a crater several states wide. So yes, this is a massive volcano and one that we all hope we will never see erupt.
However, when looking at these Earth altering natural disasters it's imperative to think in terms of probability. What is the probability of Yellowstone supervolcano erupting this year and each year following? One in 730,000 or 0.00014%. In fact, the last time Yellowstone erupted catastrophically was 640,000 years ago.
Thankfully, the Yellowstone supervolcano is one of the most monitored volcanoes in the world and there is absolutely no indication of an eruption. On top of that, we will likely have weeks, months, to even years of notice before Yellowstone erupts next.
Humans can often focus on unfounded fears out of their control over actual risks that are within their control. Let's compare your yearly and lifetime risk of being either killed in a car accident or a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption. The car accident statistics are based in the United States in 2014. and the lifetime risk of a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption is based on yearly risk expanded out to the average US lifespan of 78.74 years.
| Yearly Risk | Lifetime Risk | |
| Yellowstone Supervolcano Eruption | 0.0001% | 0.0108% |
| Death From Car Accident | 0.0111% | 0.8772% |
Taking a look at the data, you are 81 times more likely to die in any given year from a car accident than experiencing a Yellowstone supervolcano (which of course doesn't mean you won't survive). The statistics are a bit morbid but hopefully put into perspective where risks lie and put things into context the next time you see "Yellowstone volcano latest: Shock video shows terrifying crack at nearby Grand Teton" come across your newsfeed.
Trevor Nace is a PhD geologist, founder of Science Trends, Forbes contributor, and explorer. Follow his journey @trevornace.
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