| New York Times | - |
BEIRUT,
Lebanon - The fortunes of President Bashar al-Assad have suffered over
the past two months, with battlefield setbacks and new signs of doubt
emerging within his political base, as the civil war in Syria drags on with no end in sight. Now ...
Syrian Leaders See Opportunities and Risks in U.S. Striking ISIS on Their Soil
BEIRUT,
Lebanon — The fortunes of President Bashar al-Assad have suffered over
the past two months, with battlefield setbacks and new signs of doubt
emerging within his political base, as the civil war in Syria drags on
with no end in sight.
Now, though, he and his inner circle believe they have been granted a reprieve — at least politically — by President Obama’s declaration
that he may strike in Syria against the extremist group the Islamic
State in Iraq and Syria, according to analysts and allies of the Syrian
government who say they are in contact with officials in Damascus.
To
Mr. Assad and his closest advisers, these people say, the American
decision represents a victory for his longstanding strategy:
obliterating any moderate opposition to his rule and persuading the
world it faces a stark choice between him and Islamist militants who
threaten the West.
But
there are also worries in Damascus that the potential American strikes
in Syria, part of a ramped-up campaign against ISIS, carry new risks.
Pro-government analysts say that Syrian officials are unsure who would
benefit militarily — government forces, or Syrian insurgents and
separatist Kurds, who have also clashed with the foreign-led ISIS
militants.
Neither
the Syrian Army nor the Western-supported groups among the Syrian
insurgents appear capable of taking immediate advantage of any weakening
of ISIS in the eastern provinces bordering Iraq where it is strongest,
Raqqa and Deir al-Zour.
The
Syrian Army has little chance of retaking recently lost territory
there, and appears to have virtually written off the east, said Amine
Hoteit, a retired Lebanese general who is close to Syrian officials,
some of whom he met with in Damascus last month.
Mr.
Obama says new aid to Syrian insurgents that his administration has
deemed relatively moderate will allow them to act as a ground force
against ISIS; he has ruled out sending American troops. But efforts to
arm and train them will take time, and it is unclear whether they will
be more successful than past efforts that have failed to produce an
effective and unified force.
Yezid
Sayigh, a military analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center in
Beirut, said that made it unlikely that the United States would soon
launch more than limited and carefully selected strikes against ISIS,
such as against desert convoys. The group’s fighters in Raqqa have
lately melted away into the population, increasing the risk that strikes
there would kill civilians, perhaps rallying support to ISIS.
Syrian
insurgents are stronger near ISIS positions further west in Aleppo
Province. But so is the Syrian Army, so hitting ISIS there could also
benefit Mr. Assad, which Mr. Obama is loath to do.
“So
unless the U.S. successfully kills key ISIS commanders in Syria,” Mr.
Sayigh said, “its military impact will be limited there in the short and
possibly medium term.”
Another
view, a Damascus journalist with a pro-government media outlet said in a
phone interview, is that the American campaign will have little impact
on the ground. Many in the government believe the campaign was designed
for political reasons to show that the United States is acting against
ISIS and that the first step in any serious effort would be forcing
Turkey, an American ally and NATO member, to stop the flow of ISIS
fighters across its borders.
Military
impact aside, each side hopes to gain politically. The prospect of
American strikes comes just as Mr. Assad’s government has been facing
unprecedented public criticism from supporters, who have complained on
social media and in interviews that it allowed the extremists to run
rampant, and recently staged a rare demonstration in Damascus demanding
stronger action to release hostages held by extremists.
Mr.
Obama’s decision has reinvigorated core members of Mr. Assad’s inner
circle who believe that he faces less and less pressure to compromise,
and that the West will eventually ally with him against ISIS, Syrian
journalists and analysts say. For fear of retribution, all the Syrians
interviewed requested anonymity.
Yet
Mr. Assad presides over a country that is physically divided and
psychologically depleted. Two months ago, he was riding higher than at
any time since early 2012, having consolidated control of the country’s
strategic spine, which runs from Damascus to the coast. But those gains,
and the morale they built, now appear less solid.
Lightning
advances by ISIS routed soldiers from three bases in Raqqa over the
summer, sending them fleeing into the desert and leaving many government
supporters incensed that the army did not send more reinforcements.
Video
of an attack on the Tabaqa air base shows soldiers fleeing, apparently
unarmed, into the desert, and being gunned down by ISIS fighters.
The
images have been widely shared in Syria, shocking government supporters
who are used to seeing the army portrayed in a heroic light; montages
on state television regularly show troops marching in disciplined rows
and rappelling down walls to a triumphal soundtrack.
“If
we lose more areas, we will be doomed,” a 31-year-old professional,
long a strong government supporter, said in a phone interview from the
coastal city of Tartus. “After three years the army is tired and
depleted.”
“We
are playing on the edge and sitting on a volcano,” she said, asking
that her name be withheld to avoid retribution from either side. “Many
people who love and respect Assad are mad at him now. Their patience has
come to the end.”
She
said that her cousin, a soldier, had been jailed for three weeks after
he talked on base about recent defeats. Five pro-government activists
were detained recently after launching a social media campaign about
missing soldiers called “Where Are They.” Others boldly defended them
online as “patriotic.”
Still, the Tartus woman and many other government supporters say they see no alternative to Mr. Assad to protect them from ISIS.
Yet
United States officials and some allied Western diplomats say they hope
that American strikes on ISIS, along with new aid to non-ISIS
insurgents who would be pressured to adopt a moderate agenda, could ease
fears among government supporters, especially in the minority Alawite
sect that forms Mr. Assad’s base. They hope that, in turn, could
reassure influential Alawites enough to inspire them, or Mr. Assad’s
main allies, Iran and Russia, to pressure him to step aside or share
power.
But
among other Western diplomats, including many long relocated to Beirut
from Damascus, there is a sense of dejection and a belief that the new
focus on ISIS has derailed what was left of Western political will to
oust Mr. Assad or foster a political compromise any time soon. Asked if
Western governments would now expend much energy on those projects, one
replied, “Absolutely not. It’s over, I’m sorry to say.”
Some
Syrian officials hold a less sanguine view than Mr. Assad and his inner
circle do of his political and military strength, a well-connected
pro-government political analyst said recently. He said they believe
negotiations with relatively moderate Syrian insurgents are unavoidable,
and that some chafe at the growing influence in Syria of Iran and
Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia which is fighting alongside Mr.
Assad’s troops in Syria.
But
he said they have little influence with real decision-makers,
increasingly limited to Mr. Assad’s family members, who include powerful
security officials and businessmen, and continue to reject any
compromise that could loosen their hold on power.
“Will
they reach the point where they say this is the best deal they can make
and it’s time?” he said. “They are very stubborn. I am not optimistic.”
Some
allies of Mr. Assad remain convinced that, as Syrian officials have
long predicted, the international community will eventually quietly seek
his government’s intelligence cooperation against ISIS.
“If
you don’t,” a member of Hezbollah familiar with his group’s thinking
said, addressing the United States, “it raises a question of whether you
really want to hit it.” But, he added, “Even if you don’t coordinate,”
any strikes against ISIS would “help the regime.”
The
Syrian government has volunteered to participate in the anti-ISIS
coalition as long as it works with Mr. Assad. But Mr. Obama has ruled
out such cooperation. The Syrian government says American airstrikes in
Syria without its consent would violate its sovereignty.
Syrian
officials are confident in their control of the part of the country
most important to them, the corridor from Damascus north to the coastal
cities, General Hoteit said. Currently home to between 7 million and 10
million people, he said, that territory would allow the state to
function indefinitely.
But
key swaths of the country remain contested, including the northern city
of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, divided between the government and
non-ISIS insurgents, and Damascus suburbs like Douma, where video on
Sunday showed children wounded in heavy government airstrikes.
As for the east, General Hoteit said, “The regime doesn’t care much about Raqqa.”
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