When we made nuclear treaties with the old Soviet Union (now Russia) it became much less scary to be alive here in the U.S. than before. We worried less about becoming crispy fried in a nuclear holocaust with these treaties in place and MAD (Mutual assured destruction) in place as well. So, if either side launched nukes the whole world would die within about 1/2 hour to 1 hour. As crazy as this sounds now it reassured us that there was a higher chance we would be alive 20 to 30 years from then. The same is true now (regarding only nukes) in Iran. this doesn't mean that Iran won't get one sometime. It only means there is less likelihood that they will get one and use it soon. But, it doesn't mean Iran won't keep Yemen as a failed state by continuing to arm the Houthis. And it doesn't mean Iraq won't become a de facto part of Iran which it already is.
And it doesn't mean Iran won't use it's billions to prop up Assad longer and to prop up Hezbollah to kill more Sunnis whether they are ISIS or not.
This is why it will stay as complicated as it already is except in regard to nukes.
Warming Ties With Iran? For EU, It's Complicated
| Wall Street Journal | - |
A
final Iranian nuclear deal signed on Tuesday will likely spark a flurry
of diplomacy as Europe and Iran seek to repair their dilapidated
relations—but true political engagement could prove more elusive.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
ENLARGE
A final Iranian nuclear deal signed on Tuesday will likely spark a
flurry of diplomacy as Europe and Iran seek to repair their dilapidated
relations—but true political engagement could prove more elusive.
Wariness of Tehran’s ambitions, differences among European Union governments, and the limits of European leverage in a turbulent and fractious Middle East are likely to limit cooperation over issues such as Syria, Yemen or Iraq.
First, though, the accord has set off plans for a procession of high-ranking visitors to Tehran. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Wednesday he will go soon.
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond on Wednesday said he hopes the U.K. and Iran can fully reopen their respective embassies by year-end. Ties plunged after the 2011 storming of the British embassy in Tehran.
European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who presided over the nuclear negotiations, also wants to open the first EU mission in Tehran in 2016 as part of what she hopes will be a “new chapter” in relations.
On the commercial side, there is no question that Tuesday’s nuclear deal offers the potential, over time, for a blossoming of Iranian-EU ties. If the deal holds, Iran could over coming years enjoy a huge influx of European investment, become a major energy supplier to a region seeking to diversify away from Russian gas imports, and see other commercial and financial links flourish.
Making Europe’s political weight count with Iran is likely to be harder.
“There is a general willingness to engage Iran, but very little substance in terms of concrete conceptions about what is it that we should be doing,” said Cornelius Adebahr of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Europe, he says, can achieve little without strong support or leadership from Washington.
In an interview in Vienna as diplomats held tense talks in a bid to complete a nuclear deal, the EU’s Ms. Mogherini laid out an ambitious vision of engagement with Tehran.
Stressing Europe’s long-standing cultural and commercial links, Ms. Mogherini said that, with a nuclear agreement secure after a decade of talks, the EU should work to coalesce a range of influential players in the Middle East, including Iran, “to see if some forms of regional cooperation are possible.”
“Like it or not, Iran is at the margins or at the center of a complex picture of [regional] conflicts,” Ms. Mogherini said. “The key issue there would be to encourage Iran to engage with the Gulf countries and vice versa.”
Ellie Geranmayeh, policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations, argued that the EU should now re-create the broad framework of energy, trade, economic and geopolitical ties that had grown in the late 1990s under Iran’s moderate former President Mohammad Khatami.
Ms. Geranmayeh also suggested the EU construct a “security architecture” to accommodate both Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“Europeans should explore whether Iran can deliver more constructively on regional issues, while recognizing that progress may require trade-offs and be incremental at best,” she wrote in a paper published Tuesday.
Guillaume Xavier-Bender of the German Marshall Fund said while the EU’s goal of engagement with Iran is right, it bigger challenge in the near term will be to reassure the Gulf states and Israel, which are deeply skeptical of the nuclear diplomacy, that ties won’t be shaken.
Mr. Xavier-Bender also said there were different approaches among the EU’s 28 governments over how to relate to Iran. Some, like France, who adopted a hawkish public stance during the nuclear talks, have prioritized ties with Iran’s Sunni regional foes, like Saudi Arabia.
Germany has major commercial links with Iran which are destined to expand but Berlin also safeguards its ties to Israel. Top German officials have steered clear of Tehran since President Hassan Rouhani’s mid-2013 election injected momentum in the nuclear diplomacy.
Some EU members, from Denmark to the Czech Republic, will push human rights to the center of any Iran dialogue, an issue that has previously plagued ties.
“There definitely is an assumption in Brussels that any deal will lead to greater cooperation with Iran,” Mr. Xavier-Bender said. “What will, I believe, be much more complicated is how individual member states reshape their relationship.”
Yet it is the EU’s lack of leverage in the region that gives most ground for caution, Mr. Adebahr said.
He believes rich Gulf States have little interest in EU efforts to bind them in dialogue with Iran, even on issues like Yemen where a four-month Saudi military campaign has hit trouble. Last year, the Saudis made it clear to their Western partners that if they wanted Riyadh on board in the fight against Islamic State, then Iran must be kept away from the table.
Meanwhile, the billions that Tehran has spent propping up the Assad regime in Syria and sponsoring militias in Iraq also make some European diplomats wary of putting too much faith in Tehran’s willingness to constructively engage.
Better, Mr. Cornelius said, for the EU to start small by using its experience in multinational cooperation to focus on specific technical projects. He says the EU would do well to explore regional frameworks for issues like maritime security and environmental safety. That approach that could sow the seeds of future cooperation while avoiding ideological and geopolitical flash points.
end quote from:
Warming Ties With Iran? For EU, It’s Complicated
Commercial links set to blossom, but political engagement faces barriers
ENLARGE
European Union foreign
affairs chief Federica Mogherini, left, and Iranian Foreign Minister
Javad Zarif gesture during a news conference in the course of the
nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria, 14 July 2015.
Photo:
European Pressphoto Agency
Wariness of Tehran’s ambitions, differences among European Union governments, and the limits of European leverage in a turbulent and fractious Middle East are likely to limit cooperation over issues such as Syria, Yemen or Iraq.
First, though, the accord has set off plans for a procession of high-ranking visitors to Tehran. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Wednesday he will go soon.
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond on Wednesday said he hopes the U.K. and Iran can fully reopen their respective embassies by year-end. Ties plunged after the 2011 storming of the British embassy in Tehran.
European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who presided over the nuclear negotiations, also wants to open the first EU mission in Tehran in 2016 as part of what she hopes will be a “new chapter” in relations.
On the commercial side, there is no question that Tuesday’s nuclear deal offers the potential, over time, for a blossoming of Iranian-EU ties. If the deal holds, Iran could over coming years enjoy a huge influx of European investment, become a major energy supplier to a region seeking to diversify away from Russian gas imports, and see other commercial and financial links flourish.
“There is a general willingness to engage Iran, but very little substance in terms of concrete conceptions about what is it that we should be doing,” said Cornelius Adebahr of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Europe, he says, can achieve little without strong support or leadership from Washington.
In an interview in Vienna as diplomats held tense talks in a bid to complete a nuclear deal, the EU’s Ms. Mogherini laid out an ambitious vision of engagement with Tehran.
Stressing Europe’s long-standing cultural and commercial links, Ms. Mogherini said that, with a nuclear agreement secure after a decade of talks, the EU should work to coalesce a range of influential players in the Middle East, including Iran, “to see if some forms of regional cooperation are possible.”
“Like it or not, Iran is at the margins or at the center of a complex picture of [regional] conflicts,” Ms. Mogherini said. “The key issue there would be to encourage Iran to engage with the Gulf countries and vice versa.”
Ellie Geranmayeh, policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations, argued that the EU should now re-create the broad framework of energy, trade, economic and geopolitical ties that had grown in the late 1990s under Iran’s moderate former President Mohammad Khatami.
Ms. Geranmayeh also suggested the EU construct a “security architecture” to accommodate both Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“Europeans should explore whether Iran can deliver more constructively on regional issues, while recognizing that progress may require trade-offs and be incremental at best,” she wrote in a paper published Tuesday.
Guillaume Xavier-Bender of the German Marshall Fund said while the EU’s goal of engagement with Iran is right, it bigger challenge in the near term will be to reassure the Gulf states and Israel, which are deeply skeptical of the nuclear diplomacy, that ties won’t be shaken.
Mr. Xavier-Bender also said there were different approaches among the EU’s 28 governments over how to relate to Iran. Some, like France, who adopted a hawkish public stance during the nuclear talks, have prioritized ties with Iran’s Sunni regional foes, like Saudi Arabia.
Germany has major commercial links with Iran which are destined to expand but Berlin also safeguards its ties to Israel. Top German officials have steered clear of Tehran since President Hassan Rouhani’s mid-2013 election injected momentum in the nuclear diplomacy.
Some EU members, from Denmark to the Czech Republic, will push human rights to the center of any Iran dialogue, an issue that has previously plagued ties.
“There definitely is an assumption in Brussels that any deal will lead to greater cooperation with Iran,” Mr. Xavier-Bender said. “What will, I believe, be much more complicated is how individual member states reshape their relationship.”
Yet it is the EU’s lack of leverage in the region that gives most ground for caution, Mr. Adebahr said.
He believes rich Gulf States have little interest in EU efforts to bind them in dialogue with Iran, even on issues like Yemen where a four-month Saudi military campaign has hit trouble. Last year, the Saudis made it clear to their Western partners that if they wanted Riyadh on board in the fight against Islamic State, then Iran must be kept away from the table.
Meanwhile, the billions that Tehran has spent propping up the Assad regime in Syria and sponsoring militias in Iraq also make some European diplomats wary of putting too much faith in Tehran’s willingness to constructively engage.
Better, Mr. Cornelius said, for the EU to start small by using its experience in multinational cooperation to focus on specific technical projects. He says the EU would do well to explore regional frameworks for issues like maritime security and environmental safety. That approach that could sow the seeds of future cooperation while avoiding ideological and geopolitical flash points.
— Jenny Gross contributed to this article.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.comend quote from:
