Definition . The term "futurist"
most commonly refers to authors, consultants, organizational leaders
and others who engage in interdisciplinary and systems thinking ...
Futurist
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Futurists or
futurologists are scientists and social scientists whose specialty is
futurology,
or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities
about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that
of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Definition
The term "futurist" most commonly refers to authors, consultants, organizational leaders and others who engage in
interdisciplinary and
systems thinking to advise private and public organizations on such matters as diverse global
trends, possible
scenarios,
emerging market opportunities and
risk management. (Futurist is not in the sense of the art movement
futurism.)
The
Oxford English Dictionary identifies the earliest use of the term
futurism in English as 1842, to refer, in a
theological context, to the
Christian eschatological tendency of that time. The next recorded use is the label adopted by the
Italian and Russian futurists,
the artistic, literary and political movements of the 1920s and 1930s
which sought to reject the past and fervently embrace speed, technology
and, often violent, change.
Visionary writers such as
Jules Verne,
Edward Bellamy and
H. G. Wells were not in their day characterized as futurists. The term
futurology in its contemporary sense was first coined in the mid‑1940s by the German Professor
Ossip K. Flechtheim,
who proposed a new science of probability. Flechtheim argued that even
if systematic forecasting did no more than unveil the subset of
statistically highly probable processes of change and charted their
advance, it would still be of crucial social value.
[1]
In the mid‑1940s the first professional "futurist" consulting institutions like
RAND and
SRI began to engage in long-range planning, systematic trend watching, scenario development, and visioning, at first under
World War II
military and government contract and, beginning in the 1950s, for
private institutions and corporations. The period from the late 1940s to
the mid‑1960s laid the conceptual and methodological foundations of the
modern
futures studies field.
Bertrand de Jouvenel's
The Art of Conjecture in 1963 and
Dennis Gabor's
Inventing the Future
in 1964 are considered key early works, and the first U.S. university
course devoted entirely to the future was taught by futurist
Alvin Toffler at
The New School in 1966.
[2]
More generally, the label includes such disparate lay, professional,
and academic groups as visionaries, foresight consultants, corporate
strategists, policy analysts, cultural critics, planners, marketers,
forecasters, prediction market developers, roadmappers, operations
researchers, investment managers,
actuaries and other risk analyzers, and future-oriented individuals educated in every academic discipline, including anthropology,
complexity studies,
computer science, economics, engineering,
Urban design,
evolutionary biology, history, management, mathematics, philosophy, physical sciences, political science, psychology, sociology,
systems theory, technology studies, and other disciplines.
Futures studies
"Futures studies"—sometimes referred to as futurology, futures
research, and foresight—can be summarized as being concerned with "three
P's and a W", i.e. "possible, probable, and preferable" futures, plus
"wildcards", which are low-probability, high-impact events, should they
occur. Even with high-profile, probable events, such as the fall of
telecommunications costs, the growth of the internet, or the aging
demographics of particular countries, there is often significant
uncertainty in the rate or continuation of a trend. Thus a key part of
futures analysis is the managing of uncertainty and risk.
[3]
Futurists and futurology
Not all futurists engage in the practice of
futurology
as generally defined. Pre-conventional futurists (see below) would
generally not. And while religious futurists, astrologers, occultists,
New Age divinists, etc. use methodologies that include study, none of
their personal revelation or belief-based work would fall within a
consensus definition of futurology as used in academics or by futures
studies professionals.
Notable futurists
See also
References
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