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Wikipedia:Greek bailout referendum, 2015

Greek bailout referendum, 2015

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This article documents a current referendum. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. (July 2015)

Greek bailout referendum, 2015

Should the plan of agreement be accepted, which was submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund in the Eurogroup meeting of 25 June 2015 and comprises two parts, which constitute their unified proposal?
The first document is entitled "Reforms For The Completion Of The Current Program And Beyond" and the second "Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis."
❑ Not approved / NO
❑ Approved / YES

Date

5 July 2015

Results
Result not yet known

Greek debt crisis

Election articles

Greek government debt crisis articles

A referendum to decide whether or not Greece is to accept the bailout conditions proposed jointly by the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on 25 June 2015, is due to take place on 5 July 2015.^[1] The referendum was announced by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in the early morning of 27 June 2015, and ratified the following day by the Parliament and the President. It will be the first referendum to be held since the republic referendum of 1974, and the only one in modern Greek history not to concern the form of government.

Background

The Syriza-led Greek coalition government had previously publicly indicated that it might choose to call a referendum, or call fresh elections, if it was not able to secure an acceptable deal in the bailout negotiations.^{[citation needed]}
The referendum was announced by Tsipras in the early morning of 27 June 2015.^[1] No prior notice of the decision was given to the Eurogroup. In the early hours of 28 June 2015, Parliament voted on whether or not the government's proposed bailout referendum should be held, with 178 MPs (Syriza, ANEL and Golden Dawn) for, 120 MPs (all other parties) against and two MPs abstaining. It was approved by the President that evening.

Referendum question

Ballot paper used in the referendum

Voters will be asked whether they approve of the proposal made to Greece by the EU, the IMF and the ECB during the Eurogroup meeting on 25 June. The proposal consists of two documents, titled "Reforms For The Completion Of The Current Program And Beyond" and "Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.".^[2] The question will contain two choices stated as "Those citizens that reject the proposal of the three institutions vote 'Not approved/No'" and "Those citizens that agree with the proposal of the three institutions vote 'Approved/Yes'".^[3]^[4]

Legality concerns

Evangelos Venizelos from PASOK party, as well as the To Potami and New Democracy parties, said that the proposed referendum would be unconstitutional, as the constitution does not allow for referendums on fiscal matters;^[5] it provides for two referendum procedures, one for 'crucial national matters' (first clause) and a second for 'Bills passed by Parliament regulating important social matters, with the exception of the fiscal ones' (second clause).^[6] The Syriza-led government argued the referendum was in accordance with the first clause, and therefore not unconstitutional.^[3]
The Athens Bar Association (DPS), which is the largest judicial scientific association in Greece, raised a range of concerns about whether the referendum law approved by the Hellenic Parliament and President of Greece was legal. They said the call of referendum and the referendum question itself, featured "significant problems on the validity and meaning of voting "yes"/"no" in that referendum", in a situation where the result of such referendum could have major importance for the future of Greece. Procedural guarantees for calling referendums provided for by law 4023/2011, as well as Constitutional requirements (Article 44, sections 2 and 3) of what could be put to a referendum, was assessed not to have been met.^[7]
Greece's top administrative court, the Council of State, ruled on the legality of the referendum two days before it was due to be held against a claim that was submitted by private individuals and supported that the referendum could be violating the country's constitution by posing a question regarding "public finances".^[8] The court's decision was that the referendum is within the jurisdiction of the government and the court has no authority on this issue, thus rejecting the claim.^[9]
On 1 July, Bloomberg reported they had found a translation mistake in the Greek version of the "Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis" part of the Institutions "unified proposal" being put to referendum. In this part there were three debt sustainability scenarios, and under the first two the original English document concludes "there are no sustainability issues" when the country's financing needs are taken into account, while the official Greek translation published to Greek voters and sent to reporters on 29 June, was missing the word "no", so that the Greek text reads "there are sustainability issues".^[10] This finding stressed the importance of the second concern made by DPS, about the referendum putting to vote "a pair of uncertified documents" instead of what the law required "a pair of certified translated documents approved by the initial issuer of the documents". However, the original wording of the conclusion of "Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis" is not that "there are no sustainability issues", as Bloomberg wrote, but that "This gross financing need metric points to no sustainability issues under the first two scenarios",^[11] that is "points to issues of no sustainability".

Reception

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European Commission

The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on 29 June during a press conference on Greece that "the momentum [for finding an agreement] was destroyed unilaterally by the announcement of a referendum and by the decision to mount a 'no' campaign to reject this agreement".^[12] However, the Greek government denied having stopped the negotiations, which indeed continued after the announcement.
The European Commission further objected the timing of the referendum, stressing it should have been held to allow sufficient time before 30 June 2015 deadline when the "20 February 2015 offer ratified by other national parliaments" - in which Greece had been offered the prospect of completing and extending its existing bailout agreement by a new (yet to be mutually agreed) set of renegotiated terms - expired.^{[citation needed]} The Commission also objected to the approach of not choosing a referendum question reflecting the entire dimensions of the comprehensive bailout offer, which was not only about implementation of a "reform programme", but also included a €35bn investment package which it said would spur job creation along with economic growth, and included a guarantee for debt relief according to a renewal of the "November 2012 debt relief statement".^{[citation needed]} This would ensure - conditional on the completion of the second bailout programme under its new renegotiated terms - automatic debt relief, to the extent that the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio would be reduced to levels below 124% in 2020 and 110% in 2022.^[12]
The European Commission also found it strange and inappropriate, that the Greek government asked for voters' opinion on the "Institution's 25 June compromise proposal" rather than the latest "Institution's 26 June compromise proposal".^[12] It said the latest "26 June compromise proposal"^[13] differed from the "25 June version" on several points (meeting objections tabled by the Greek government), of which one of the most significant was that the VAT rate for hotels had been reduced from 23% to 13%.^[12]
The European Commission claimed that neither of the Institution's proposals, contrary to claims by the Greek government, had contained "excessive austerity", public wage cuts or pension cuts. Instead they had lowered their demand for a public budget primary surplus from the previously required 4.5% - now to be only 1% in 2015 followed by a gradual increase to a level of only 3.5% for 2018 and beyond - saving Greece from implementing €12bn of extra austerity measures.^{[citation needed]} Their request for a "wage reform", it said, was about conducting an ILO approved review and update of the current collective bargaining rights in the private sector (not removal of collective bargaining rights) - and implementation of a new approved wage scheme in which public workers were paid in future according to qualifications and performance (instead of clientele deals). Their "pension reform", it said, was calling for the cancellation of incentives for early retirement, along with moving to a system in which all people in Greece received pensions on the same terms (not treating some sectors more beneficially than others).^{[citation needed]}
The claim by Juncker that there were no pension cuts in the proposal raised eyebrows, with Financial Times journalist Peter Spiegel tweeting that it was "simply not true".^[14]
Other important elements of the proposals, the European Commission said, were: to implement a more efficient and independent Tax Collection Authority, opening up closed professions to competition (i.e. so that the Greek price for electricity - which is currently the most expensive in EU - would decline), and to implement a string of measures to ensure more social fairness (guaranteed minimum income scheme, making tax payments more proportionate to income, targeting extra saving cuts in public spending on areas with no adverse impact for average citizens - i.e. increased defense cuts, removing socially unjust favorable tax treatments of ship-owners, fighting corruption in which the focus should be "big fish" rather than "ordinary people", and safeguarding a lasting social fairness by supporting more transparency and efficiency in public administration - in particularly through establishment of a new politically-independent tax administration).^[12]
Further, the European Commission signaled that the referendum question, to which they would recommend a "Yes", from its viewpoint should be understood as whether or not Greece wanted to remain part of Europe and the Eurozone, which at the present state included acceptance of receiving conditional bailout help on a set of mutually negotiated and agreed terms. The Commission claimed the biggest impediment to jobs, growth and investment at the moment in Greece, was not the contents of the Institution's bailout proposals, but instead a paralyzing uncertainty caused by the Greek government's decision to cut itself off from continued bailout support and a moratorium on implementing structural reforms. According to the Commission, this uncertainty and standstill could only be removed if Greece at the negotiating table agreed on one of the latest compromise proposals which the Institutions had tabled after accommodating a range of objections and requests tabled by the Greek government. They claimed the confidence effect of voting "Yes" to the settlement of such a deal, the predictability it would bring, together with the injection of liquidity into the economy from disbursements, would restore job creation and growth to the benefit of Greece.^[12]

Council of Europe

The Council of Europe stated that the Greek referendum does not meet European standards, as voters were not given a two-week period to make up their minds, as non-binding guidelines recommend. Due to the hasty schedule, the Council of Europe was not able to send election observers and the Greek government had not requested them either.^[15] However the head of the Greek delegation and vice president of the Council's parliamentary assembly, Dimitris Vitsas, denied that there was any decision made by the Council of Europe and said that it was only a personal opinion expressed by the Council's general secretary, Thorbjørn Jagland,^[16] with Tiny Kox, the head of the Left wing in the Council's assembly supporting the same view and asking the general secretary to clarify his previous announcement.^[17]^[18]

United Nations Independent Experts

The United Nations Independent Expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order and on human rights and international solidarity, Alfred de Zayas and Virginia Dandan respectively, welcomed the Greek referendum and called for international solidarity, while expressing dissapointment that the IMF and the EU have failed to reach a non austerity based solution yet, and supporting that no treaty or loan agreement can force a country to violate the civil, cultural, economic, political and social rights of its population, nor can a loan agreement negate the sovereignty of a State.^[19]

Campaigns

3 July 2015: Demonstration for voting NO in front of the Greek parliament, Syntagma Square, Athens.

A "No" protestor outside the Greek parliament building on 29 June 2015, holding a sign reading ΟΧΙ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΞΟΝΤΩΣΗ ("no to annihilation").

Positions on implications of the referendum

Main article: Endorsements in the Greek bailout referendum, 2015

There has been substantial disagreement between campaigns on the implications of the referendum, and the public has interpreted it in a variety of ways.^[20] Tsipras has argued that a "No" vote would represent a rejection of the austerity terms demanded by the creditors, and strengthen the Greek negotiating position. Advocates of a "Yes" vote have cast the referendum as a decision on Greece remaining in the eurozone, and perhaps even the European Union.^{[citation needed]}
Many international leaders as well as mainstream economists and media warned that if the "No" vote leads to a failure to secure continued bailout support for Greece in due time, this would likely lead to a broader Greek sovereign default, a haircut on Greek bank deposits, a collapse of the banking sector, followed by an aggravated depression of the Greek economy, and an Greek exit from the euro area.^[21]^[22] A new local currency to replace the euro would be strongly devalued, which would decrease the purchasing power for Greeks and lead to hyperinflation.^[23]^[24]^[25]
Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that "in case of a 'No', Greece's (financial) situation will become exceptionally difficult... The economic problems will be even bigger and an aid programme more difficult to implement".^[26] European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker said Greece's negotiating position would be "dramatically weakened" if a 'No' won. Other European leaders have also criticized the Greek govenment's representation of the referendum options, with EU leaders saying that they would see a "No" vote as a rejection of Europe.^[27]^[28]^[29]
Public opinion strongly favours keeping the euro.^[30] Of all the political parties which won seats in the parliamentary election in May, only the Communist KKE expressed support for leaving the euro, and indeed for leaving the European Union.^[31]^{[citation needed]} Tsipras has repeatedly rejected Greek and international warnings that a "No" vote would be perceived by Greek's main creditors as a "No" to reforms in Greece, and a "No" to remaining in the Eurozone.^{[citation needed]} Tsipras declared "On Sunday, we are not simply deciding to remain in Europe -- we are deciding to live with dignity in Europe".^[32]
A majority of European leaders,^[33] and the US President Obama have expressed the opinion that Greece should remain in the monetary union.^[34] An opposite view comes from the UK Prime Minister David Cameron who mentioned, according to a leaked note, that it "might be better" for Greece to leave the euro in order to sort its economy out, even though Cameron conceded that there were major risks in that, too.^[35] and from intellectuals such as Noam Chomsky^[36] who has criticized the policies of the European Central Bank for not allowing Greece to get out of its debt.^[37]

Greek organisations

Reception by professional/societal associations in Greece:

Technical Chamber of Greece (TCG): Had called a Steering Committee meeting for approval of a "Yes" recommendation statement, but had to abort their meeting when evidently a group of radical Syriza supporters (not members of the organisation) had hijacked their meeting. The TCG president said: "It is assumed that the referendum is paramount democratic choice of the people. But how is democracy strengthened when people, who obviously support the opinion of SYRIZA, come and threaten our Steering Committee not to make a decision to communicate the opinion of our association in important matters?"^[38]
Athens Bar Association (DPS): DPS recommend a "Yes" vote to stay in Europe. The DPS statement said: "If the referendum ultimately, as has been said and implied, is really about "Yes" or "No" to the European Union, then the answer can not be other than "Yes". Yes to our creative participation in the EU."^[38]
Panhellenic Federation of Teaching and Research Staff (POSDEP): Recommended a "Yes" vote.^[38]
The Central Union of Greek Municipalities (KEDE): Recommended a "Yes" vote.^[38]
Greece Regions Union: Recommended a "Yes" vote.^[38]

Positions on the vote itself (Yes/No)

In his initial address, when prime minister Tsipras of the ruling Syriza party announced the plebiscite on 5 July, he recommended a "No" vote to the Greek people.^[39] Most other Syriza members also supported a "No" vote.^{[citation needed]}
ANEL, the other ruling party in coalition with Syriza, announced that they were campaigning for a "No" vote.^[40]
The far-right Golden Dawn party, not being in the government, also called for a "No" vote.^[41]
KKE declared it was against both of the latest two versions of the cash-for-reform counter proposals being submitted to the negotiation table between Greece and its public creditors (the counter proposal of the Greek government, and the latest compromise counter proposal of the institutions), and said that it would try to change the question of the referendum, so that people can vote not only against the latest compromise counter-proposal of the Institutions but also against the latest counter-proposal of the Greek government.^[42]
Keynesian economists like James K. Galbraith^[43] and Thomas Piketty,^[44] along with Nobel prize in Economics recipients Paul Krugman^[45] and Joseph Stiglitz^[46], publicly expressed their support for the "No" vote at the referendum, claiming that keeping the current austerity programme is in any case the worst option from an economic point of view.

Opinion polls

According to opinion polls, since the imposition of capital controls in Greece as a result of the ECB's decision not to enlarge its Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme in Greece, there has been a trend from a clear No-vote majority to a head-to-head race, or even a slight advantage for the Yes-vote, to accept the proposed bailout terms (as of 3 July 2015).^[47]^[48]

After the referendum announcement

Between the options of YES and NO on the institutions proposal,
which one would you choose?
Date	Polling Firm/Source	Yes	No	Don't know/ None	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source				Lead
2–3 Jul	Metron Analysis	46.0	47.0	7.0	1.0
1–3 Jul	GPO	44.1	43.7	12.2	0.4
1–3 Jul	Alco	41.7	41.1	17.2	0.6
30 Jun – 3 Jul	Ipsos	44.0	43.0	13.0	1.0
2 Jul	PAMAK	42.5	43.0	14.5	0.5
1–2 Jul	Metron Analysis	47.0	46.0	7.0	1.0
30 Jun – 2 Jul	Public Issue	42.5	43.0	14.5	0.5
1 Jul	PAMAK	44.0	45.0	11.0	1.0
30 Jun – 1 Jul	Metron Analysis	44.0	47.0	9.0	3.0
30 Jun – 1 Jul	Alco	41.5	40.2	18.3	1.3
30 Jun	PAMAK	40.5	44.0	15.5	3.5
29–30 Jun	Metron Analysis	42.0	50.0	8.0	8.0
29–30 Jun	ToThePoint	37.0	40.2	22.8	3.2

[show]28–30 Jun	ProRata	33.0	54.0	13.0	21.0

29 Jun	PAMAK	37.5	47.0	15.5	19.5
28–29 Jun	Metron Analysis	37.0	53.0	10.0	16.0
28 Jun	PAMAK	31.0	54.0	15.0	23.0
27 Jun	PAMAK	26.5	52.0	21.5	25.5

Note: This section only covers confirmed polls conducted since the announcement of the referendum. Polls not confirmed by their respective pollsters are not shown in the table.

Before the referendum announcement

Two opinion polls were conducted shortly before the announcement of the referendum on 27 June, and prior to the referendum question being made public. The first asked how people would vote if a debt-deal was put to a referendum,^[49] and the second whether people supported reaching an agreement with the creditor institutions or not.^[50]^[51] Both found support for a deal in principle.

References

"Greece debt crisis: Tsipras announces bailout referendum". BBC News. 27 June 2015.

(Greek) Στις 5 Ιουλίου ψηφίζουμε «ναι» ή «όχι» στην πρόταση των «θεσμών»

(Greek) Hellenic Parliament, 27 June 2015

(Greek) Αυτό είναι το ερώτημα του δημοψηφίσματος που προτείνει η κυβέρνηση

(Greek) Βενιζέλος: «Αντισυνταγματικό το δημοψήφισμα!»

The Constitution of Greece, Article 44, Section 2.

"Decision of the Board of DPS for the referendum on 5 July 2015 (Απόφαση του Διοικητικού Συμβουλίου του ΔΣΑ για το δημοψήφισμα της 5ης Ιουλίου 2015)" (in Greek). Athens Bar Association (DPS). 30 June 2015.

"Greece's top court to rule on legality of referendum". Ekathimerini.com. 2 July 2015. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

Κανονικά διεξάγεται το δημοψήφισμα - Το ΣτΕ απέρριψε τις αιτήσεις

"Key Greek Referendum Debt Document Mistranslated". Bloomberg. 1 July 2015.

Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis, original in English.

"Transcript of President Jean-Claude Juncker's press conference on Greece". European Commission. 29 June 2015.

"European Commission - Press release: Information from the European Commission on the latest draft proposals in the context of negotiations with Greece". European Commission. 28 June 2015.

"FT Journalist Spiegel Caught Juncker Lying About Greece". Greek Reporter. 29 June 2015. Retrieved 4 July 2015.

"Greek referendum falls short of standards - Council of Europe". Reuters. 1 July 2015.

(Greek) Διαψεύδει ο Δημήτρης Βίτσας ότι το Συμβούλιο της Ευρώπης είναι αντίθετο με το δημοψήφισμα - stokokkino.gr

(Greek) Κοξ: Δεν υπάρχει ανακοίνωση του Συμβουλίου της Ευρώπης για το δημοψήφισμα avgi.gr

(Greek) - newpost.gr

"UN human rights experts welcome Greek referendum and call for international solidarity". ohchr.org. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

http://time.com/3945677/greece-referendum-vote/

Elliot, Larry; Wearden, Graeme; Smith, Helena (30 June 2015). "Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exit". The Guardian (London).

Deen, Mark; Fouquet, Helene (29 June 2015). "Hollande Says Greece’s Referendum Will Determine Euro Membership". Bloomberg News (New York).

"Greek debt crisis: Economist explains fallout if Greece goes back to drachma". abc News. 3 July 2015. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

"Greek economy close to collapse as food and medicine run short". The Guardian. 3 July 2015. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

"Greek banks prepare plan to raid deposits to avert collapse". Financial Times. 3 July 2015. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

"Greek situation deteriorating: Dijsselbloem". YahooFinance. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

"Angry EU leaders lash out at Greece, eyeing endgame". Ekathimerini. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

"If the Greeks say "no" would weaken the Greek negotiating position (in Greek)". Naftemporiki. Retrieved 3 July 2015.

"Clear lead for SYRIZA in Public Issue poll; support for euro at 71%". Phantis. 15 June 2015.

BBC News report 15 June 2012 – "Greek election is euro versus drachma, Samaras says"

Greece PM urges 'No' vote to 'live with dignity in Europe'

Greek debt crisis

"Greek debt crisis: Obama and Merkel monitoring situation closely". The Guardian (London). 28 June 2015.

Nardelli, Alberto; Watt, Nicholas (26 June 2015). "Cameron told EU leader Greek exit from euro may be best option". The Guardian (London).

Goodman, Amy (2 July 2015). "Noam Chomsky: Austerity Is Just Class War". Alternet.

Chomsky, Noam (2013). Power Systems: Conversations on Global Democratic Uprisings and the New Challenges to U.S. Empire (1st ed.). New York: Metropolitan Books. p. 86. ISBN 9780805096156.

""Επιχείρηση" αποτροπής του "ναι" με εφόδους ('Enterprise' deterrence 'yes' due to raids)" (in Greek). Kathimerini. 30 June 2015.

Le Monde, AFP, Reuters, 28 June 2015.

"Referendum divides coalition partner". Ekathimerini. 2 July 2015.

(Greek) "LIVE! OI ΡΑΓΔΑΙΕΣ ΕΞΕΛΙΞΕΙΣ Πηγή: www.lifo.gr". Lifo. Retrieved 27 June 2015.

(Greek) "Θ. Χιώνης: "Όχι" στην πρόταση-"Σκύλλα" των δανειστών και στην πρόταση-"Χάρυβδη" της κυβέρνησης (VIDEO)". 902.gr. 27 June 2015. Retrieved 27 June 2015.

"9 myths about the Greek crisis - by James K. Galbraith, Politico".

"Piketty : "Entre 2009 et 2014, la Grèce est le pays qui a le plus réduit son déficit"" [Piketty : "Between 2009 and 2014, Greece is the country which reduced its deficit the most"]. Marianne (in French) (Paris). 30 June 2015.

Krugman, Paul (29 June 2015). "Greece Over the Brink". The New York Times (New York).

Stiglitz, Joseph (29 June 2015). "Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum". The Guardian (London).

"Yes edges ahead in latest Greek opinion poll". Financial Times. 3 July 2015.

"Poll shows tight race ahead of Greece referendum". Fox News. 3 July 2015.

"Δημοσκόπηση: Προβάδισμα "ναι" σε δημοψήφισμα, πριν τη "βόμβα Τσίπρα"". 28 June 2015. Retrieved 29 June 2015. αν η νέα επώδυνη συμφωνία παραπεμφθεί σε δημοψήφισμα, εσείς τι θα ψηφίσετε