Saturday, October 27, 2018

a hot US growth rate is essential for Trump to have any chance of offsetting the cost of his huge corporate tax cut

Unsurprisingly, the Chinese are happy to sit still and watch. First, a hot US growth rate is essential for Trump to have any chance of offsetting the cost of his huge corporate tax cut. But there is a big downside here. To curb inflation that so often accompanies such high-octane growth, the Federal Reserve will have to keep raising interest rates. That's a definite disincentive for stock investors, who will begin to find higher yields in bonds than stocks, driving the stock market even lower. These higher bond yields are a boon for investors who may be buying US securities that have to be sold to finance America's ballooning deficit -- a direct product of the Trump tax cuts, narrower than hoped growth, among other factors. And China is still one of the biggest buyers of American bonds.

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  • So, basically what Trump wants cannot happen because in order to prevent inflation the Fed will have to raise interest rates which takes more money from the stock market and puts it into Bonds and other investments  instead.

China may wait Trump out

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