Saturday, June 13, 2020

I actually agree with Fauci that the 2nd wave isn't inevitable

However, you then also have to say that even though it is not inevitable it is the most likely thing to actually happen as well.

So, just as you are being honest about it not being inevitable you are being unrealistic not to also say that the 2nd wave in September and October through next May is likely to happen.

If I were to give probabilities (and this isn't possible either by the way), the probability from an intuitives perspective would be that we have a 75% probability of 100,000 or more people dying between September and October of 2020 if there is no vaccine by then that works here in the U.S.

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