Thursday, June 11, 2020

The range in the prediction by October is 133,201 to 290,222

Previous estimates of the IHME model, which has been cited by the White House, only examined possible cases through August. But now, it predicts 169,890 deaths by Oct. 1, with a possible range between 133,201 and 290,222.

"We're now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of COVID-19," IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement. "We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission."
end partial quote from:
What I'm not getting clear from this statement is whether they are talking about starting at 115,000 where we are presently at or whether this count is completely separate from the present count. For example, when I read begin partial quote from above it seemed like this was a separate count. However, the first quote makes it sort of ambiguous Here is another partial quote which makes me think this is an entirely different group starting early September:
A WIDELY CITED MODEL predicts that the coronavirus will kill nearly 170,000 Americans by early October with a second wave of the virus expected in September.

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