I was born in 1948 after World War II like most baby boomers were after the war and we were all cautioned about the next Great Depression because my parents and grandparents expected another one. They just didn't know when but figured it would happen sometime in the baby boomers generation of being alive and it finally has.
Though it is still called "The Great Recession" rather than the 2nd Great Depression, in time it might be called the 2nd Great Depression or something like that 25 to 50 years from now.
The problems during the first great depression were 25% to 50% unemployment depending upon where people lived in the U.S. and people going homeless or living in their vehicles all over the U.S. just like now.
However, what is different about this one is that the unemployment is not that bad this time. This time, instead of banks going bankrupt there is FDIC which insures any one person's accounts in any banking system up to 250,000 dollars which will help most people in this way. So people don't have to hide their cash in mattresses or bury them in the yard like they used to. (My grandfather buried $25,000 in his yard under his lawn for example in a coffee tin.)
This time it is cities going bankrupt which creates even worse social problems nationwide where fires don't get put out, police aren't paid and don't protect citizens, teachers aren't paid, and public works employees aren't paid and so either do their jobs without pay or they don't. This creates in some ways a situation that is even worse than the Great Depression for the poor and lower middle class throughout the U.S.
Because this means that fire, police, teachers and civil servants of all kinds might not be there to take care of anyone. Also, if cities keep going bankrupt like they are it will tend to also dry up people wanting to invest in tax free municipal bonds if they aren't guaranteed at least getting their principal back whether they actually make tax free interest on their principal or not.
To the best of my ability I write about my experience of the Universe Past, Present and Future
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Showing posts with label worse than great depression?. Show all posts
Showing posts with label worse than great depression?. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Worse Than Great Depression?
http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2009/06/23/its-already-worse-than-the-depression
quote from above url.
According to Ibbotson Associates, of the 74 rolling 10-year periods since 1926 (i.e., 1926-1935, 1927-1936, and so on), U.S. large-cap stocks posted negative returns in just three of them. The first two were 1929-1938 (-0.89% compound annual return) and 1930-1939 (-0.05% compound annual return), and involved the Depression. The third loser decade was the most recent -- and the worst. From 1999-2008, U.S. large-cap stocks "returned" a compound annual average of negative 1.38%.
Who would have thought back in 1999, when we were more worried about Y2K than our 401(k), that in the subsequent decade big-name American stocks would do worse than they did in the 1930s? Not many. end quote.
So, if I'm reading this right of all 74 rolling 10 year periods, the last ten year period is the worst since 1926.
And if that is the case I think there is a whole new dynamic than we have seen before. One of the causes of this new dynamic is global warming. The droughts that have encreased along with aberrant rain patterns and weather patterns have played havoc with crops worldwide over the last 10 years what with Australian farmers in the outback committing suicide in droves and most of Australia's crops failing from lack of water during those same times and various other problems worldwide.
If the period from 1926 to 1996 was a period of more effective use of farmland and crop growing, we could be in for a long period of decreasing crops worldwide and a loss of land that requires direct rain that otherwise might be tillable. Water reclamation projects might be the only solution worldwide to keep crop levels from dropping in droughted areas.
quote from above url.
According to Ibbotson Associates, of the 74 rolling 10-year periods since 1926 (i.e., 1926-1935, 1927-1936, and so on), U.S. large-cap stocks posted negative returns in just three of them. The first two were 1929-1938 (-0.89% compound annual return) and 1930-1939 (-0.05% compound annual return), and involved the Depression. The third loser decade was the most recent -- and the worst. From 1999-2008, U.S. large-cap stocks "returned" a compound annual average of negative 1.38%.
Who would have thought back in 1999, when we were more worried about Y2K than our 401(k), that in the subsequent decade big-name American stocks would do worse than they did in the 1930s? Not many. end quote.
So, if I'm reading this right of all 74 rolling 10 year periods, the last ten year period is the worst since 1926.
And if that is the case I think there is a whole new dynamic than we have seen before. One of the causes of this new dynamic is global warming. The droughts that have encreased along with aberrant rain patterns and weather patterns have played havoc with crops worldwide over the last 10 years what with Australian farmers in the outback committing suicide in droves and most of Australia's crops failing from lack of water during those same times and various other problems worldwide.
If the period from 1926 to 1996 was a period of more effective use of farmland and crop growing, we could be in for a long period of decreasing crops worldwide and a loss of land that requires direct rain that otherwise might be tillable. Water reclamation projects might be the only solution worldwide to keep crop levels from dropping in droughted areas.
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