Saturday, July 7, 2012

Economic Changes

Signs We Are Approaching a Zombie Economy

 4 Reasons Economy Can't Hit 'Escape Velocity'

I was reading the above articles "signs we are approaching a Zombie Economy" and the second one and I don't think I agree what the real problems actually are with these articles.

I think the real problems are only two if you take away all the froth and elitist thinking that comes from getting a degree in economics or a masters or a PHD. Though everything they say is useful, it is like saying what is wrong with the engine of the car when the whole road system is out from storms, floods, etc. and there is nowhere to drive except on the parts of the road not broken.

These are the actual causes. The first is Globalization. And most people really don't completely understand just how fundamental a change has taken place worldwide and is ongoing in its changes. The best way to illustrate it would be to think about the Home computer(desktop, laptop, Ipad, smartphone etc) like one did the gasoline and diesel engines around 1900. Now think about what these engines did to life on earth on land, air and sea everywhere on earth. Planes revolutionized wars to the point where large wars cannot even be fought without destroying all life on earth and the very earth itself.

Now, turn your attention to just how much the Internet has changed life on earth in the last 20 years or so since it came into existence. Now think about how much Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google, and Facebook (just to name a few) have changed life on earth. Now think about how many big box stores were put out of business just by say amazon.com alone's very existence. Even Walmart to some degree isn't doing as well because of the absolutely incredible success of companies like amazon.com and companies like Ebay and others. And there is an infinite array of other companies that will change everything in our lives too, including stealing away ALL our privacy without our permission.

The second cause is Global Climate Change. I presently believe that the people still denying the existence of Global Climate Change wouldn't believe the existence of a truck just before it hit them by accident as they crossed a street, sort of like the people whose pipes dropped out of their mouths when the Wright Brothers heavier than air plane took off at Kitty Hawk.

There is a sense that those who can't accept the changes going on are likely to be mowed down by those changes just as thousands to millions of people lives are being mowed down both directly and indirectly by Global Warming and global Climate change (Things all don't get warmer at once during a global climate change). But the one thing that is predictable is that everything becomes more chaotic. The winds get stronger, the days get hotter (or colder) than people are used to. the Hurricanes might get stronger and the tornadoes might get bigger. So, what do all these things have in common? They are all stronger and more chaotic and more unpredictable in their effects on humanity by the day.

So, I would say the real culprit behind the economic standstill on earth right now are really these two things and anything that anyone does mostly is about trying to find a way to survive these changes with their families lives intact. All the rest is just fluff.

The real problem is that people are asking the wrong questions and so get the wrong answers. People seem to think stocks should be like they were since the 1930s but those days are gone. Until people create ways to deal with the new reality and the new problems there cannot be a solution.

However, things are just changing so fast every day and moment that only a computer program that was infinitely adapting each moment could actually keep up with all the changes and tell us what was going to happen next. No, non-intuitive person without precognition could have the vaguest idea of what might happen next.

I was reading about computer experts who are able to predict fires and where they will go days ahead of time by combining things like computerized weather reports, the volatility index of fuels that will burn and wind changes.

Likewise, until enough people have access to these kinds of research directed at economic models (NO ONE CAN INVEST IN  A REALISTIC WAY) except the very very rich who CAN afford stuff like this.

There has been no public unveiling of the new dynamic because the dynamic is changing so fast by the time a new model has been developed regarding the dynamic the dynamic has moved on to something else and a whole new and ever changing dynamic. And so on and so on.

For example, the Higgs Boson has been proved. It has taken billions and billions of dollars to discover the "God Particle" that everyone pretty much knew had to be there. Now we know that there can be almost infinite Universes from the God Particle's existence. So, this is as big as E equals MC squared from Einstein. However, this one took thousands of hard working researchers since the 1960s to discover that it was true. And this one discovery likely is equally if not more stupendous than even E equals MC squared in future technological spinoffs that will affect all our lives.




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