Thursday, September 4, 2014

The temporary end of Middle Eastern and North Western African Infrastructure?

Before the Great Recession both Europe and the U.S. would have been all over this Ebola Outbreak and would have nipped it in the bud within a few months. Now, it is possible it could move throughout Africa or even go worldwide because of the number of crises happening around the world at the same time.

There really isn't time to educate the uneducated masses in Africa about what to do regarding Ebola while dealing with Russia invading the Ukraine and ISIS in Syria and Iraq beheading everyone they meet or want to including Americans who are journalists.

So, what happens now?

I think we are looking at the future of countries that don't have oil or a lot of natural resources in the middle east and Africa and the kinds of things we might see the rest of this century. Resources of all countries including the U.S. are very strained now. Bernanke says the "Great Recession" was actually much worse than the "Great Depression" it's just that people like him had studied the Great Depression enough to know how to avoid another one. But, that also means that there aren't (infinite) resources (like there used to be) to throw at world crises. So, if the world cannot manage without as much help from the U.S. as before this is what we very likely are going to see a lot more of.

Russia and Iran are really good at making messes like with Assad in Syria which created enough pissed off Sunnis to actually Create Isis. But now, they don't seem more able than anyone else to deal with ISIS. And even Saudi Arabia feels threatened by ISIS so close to their borders too.

Also, the U.S. is coming out of three trillion dollars (or more) worth of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. So, for this reason as well you are not going to see infinite resources flying out of the U.S. towards problems like Ebola or (beyond a certain degree) air power against ISIS either.

So, what happens to the middle east?

It looks like we are witnessing it now first hand. But, don't expect more than the elimination of all the missiles and trucks and tanks and armored carriers of ISIS for now. This seems to be the reality on the ground.

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