Tuesday, July 7, 2015

I don't think Greece will give in to the ECB

  1. Strengthening macroprudential policy in Europe Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Conference on “The macroprudential toolkit in Europe ... 

    I think the ECB has run out of options in dealing with Greece. And I think Greeks are through with Austerity because there would be no end in sight in regard to this likely for 25, 50 or even 100 years. They could never pay off their present debts ever. 

    So, basically what is happening is the European Central Bank might accidentally cause the collapse of not only all Greek Banks but also other European Banks and I think this is the real danger.

    All leverage of the ECB in relation to Greece is gone now since the referendum. 

    And I don't think the ECB has figured this out yet. Greece in it's own way has just declared war on the ECB and in this war likely everyone is going to lose who lives in Europe. This is the problem as I see it.

    And the problem is this could get bloody in a variety of ways soon because of this.

    The problem at this point is not Greece.

    The problem is: "Can the European Union deal with the present Banking Crisis without ending the Euro and the whole European Union?" I think this is the real question now.
If this were happening to a state in the U.S. we might call this a "Constitutional Crisis". 

Because the way the European Union is presently designed it might not survive this test from Greece.

So, the real question now is: What happens next?

And this is why the whole world is holding it's breath. Because outside of sending EU troops into Greece to force the Greeks into a permanent debtor hell this just isn't going to work. And that wouldn't work either. So, we may be watching either the reformation of the EU into a more functional entity over time or we may be watching the beginning of the end of the European Union right now.

And to make matters worse Putin is likely watching all this with a smile on his face thinking: "What a Great Time to take back Eastern Europe and maybe in the future, WEstern Europe too!"

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