Friday, April 14, 2017

Bergen: Why this? Why now?

Top US general: 'Right weapon against the right target'

Why the 'mother of all bombs' and why now?

Peter Bergen
By Peter Bergen, CNN National Security Analyst
Updated 7:05 AM ET, Fri April 14, 2017
In this U.S. Air Force handout, a GBU-43/B bomb, or Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb, explodes November 21, 2003 at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. MOAB is a 21,700-pound that was droped from a plane at 20, 000 feet.

Story highlights

  • Peter Bergen: Use of bomb should be seen as part of effort to reverse course of Afghan war
  • Afghan conflict has not been going well for the country's government or the United States
Peter Bergen is CNN's national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is the author of "United States of Jihad: Investigating America's Homegrown Terrorists."
(CNN)The dropping of a "mother of all bombs" Thursday by the United States on an ISIS cave and bunker complex in Achin district in eastern Afghanistan should be understood as part of an effort to reverse a war that is not going well for the Afghan government and, by extension, the United States.
The non-nuclear 21,600-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB) "targeted a system of tunnels and caves that ISIS fighters use to move around freely," White House press secretary Sean Spicer said.
Thursday's bombing had a feeling of deja vu. A decade and a half ago the US Air Force dropped massive 15,000 pound "Daisy Cutter" bombs on the Tora Bora complex where Osama bin Laden was hiding in December 2001. Achin district is only a dozen or so miles from the Tora Bora region.
MOAB bomb: Related stories
While those Daisy Cutter bombs certainly killed many members of al Qaeda, bin Laden and many of his senior leaders escaped. That's a useful reminder that very few military campaigns are won from the air.
There are perhaps secondary effects of Thursday's bombing in Afghanistan such as signaling to the North Koreans and the Syrians that the United States can deploy such weapons against their bunker systems, but the key is that the war in Afghanistan is at a critical point.
In fact, the war in Afghanistan is at its lowest point for the Afghans and their American allies since the Taliban were overthrown in the months after 9/11.
The Taliban "control or contest" about a third of the population of the country, according to senior US military officials, a total of around 10 million people, which is more than the population that ISIS controlled in Syria and Iraq at the height of its power during the summer of 2014.
In March 2001, Taliban soldiers stand at the base of the mountain alcove where a Buddha statue once stood 170 feet high in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. The Taliban destroyed two 1,500-year-old Buddha figures in the town, saying they were idols that violated Islam.
Photos: The Taliban
In March 2001, Taliban soldiers stand at the base of the mountain alcove where a Buddha statue once stood 170 feet high in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. The Taliban destroyed two 1,500-year-old Buddha figures in the town, saying they were idols that violated Islam.
Hide Caption
9 of 16
After the 9/11 attacks, the United States conducted military strikes against al Qaeda training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime. In this long-exposure photo, a U.S. Navy fighter jet takes off from the deck of the USS Enterprise on October 7, 2001.
Photos: The Taliban
After the 9/11 attacks, the United States conducted military strikes against al Qaeda training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime. In this long-exposure photo, a U.S. Navy fighter jet takes off from the deck of the USS Enterprise on October 7, 2001.
Hide Caption
10 of 16
An Afghan anti-Taliban fighter pops up from his tank to spot a U.S. warplane bombing al Qaeda fighters in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan on December 10, 2001. After massive U.S. bombardment as a part of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban lost Afghanistan to U.S. and Northern Alliance forces.
Photos: The Taliban
An Afghan anti-Taliban fighter pops up from his tank to spot a U.S. warplane bombing al Qaeda fighters in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan on December 10, 2001. After massive U.S. bombardment as a part of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban lost Afghanistan to U.S. and Northern Alliance forces.
Hide Caption
11 of 16
Afghans look into Omar's bedroom as they go through his compound on the outskirts of Kandahar on December 11, 2001.
Photos: The Taliban
Afghans look into Omar's bedroom as they go through his compound on the outskirts of Kandahar on December 11, 2001.
Hide Caption
12 of 16
In April 2011, hundreds of prisoners escaped from a prison in Kandahar by crawling through a tunnel. The Taliban took responsibility for the escape. This picture shows a general view of the prison, top center, and the house, bottom right, from which Taliban militiamen dug the tunnel leading to the prison.
Photos: The Taliban
In April 2011, hundreds of prisoners escaped from a prison in Kandahar by crawling through a tunnel. The Taliban took responsibility for the escape. This picture shows a general view of the prison, top center, and the house, bottom right, from which Taliban militiamen dug the tunnel leading to the prison.
Hide Caption
13 of 16
Security guards stand outside the new Taliban political office in Doha, Qatar, before its official opening in June 2013. The Taliban announced that they hoped to improve relations with other countries, head toward a peaceful solution to the Afghanistan occupation and establish an independent Islamic system in the country.
Photos: The Taliban
Security guards stand outside the new Taliban political office in Doha, Qatar, before its official opening in June 2013. The Taliban announced that they hoped to improve relations with other countries, head toward a peaceful solution to the Afghanistan occupation and establish an independent Islamic system in the country.
Hide Caption
14 of 16
Zafar Hashemi, deputy spokesman for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, speaks during a news conference on July 29, when the news of Omar's death was announced.
Photos: The Taliban
Zafar Hashemi, deputy spokesman for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, speaks during a news conference on July 29, when the news of Omar's death was announced.
Hide Caption
15 of 16
Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour became the leader of the Taliban after Omar's death.<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/21/politics/u-s-conducted-airstrike-against-taliban-leader-mullah-mansour/index.html" target="_blank"> Mansour was killed in an airstrike in Pakistan on Saturday, May 21, 2016</a>.
Photos: The Taliban
Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour became the leader of the Taliban after Omar's death. Mansour was killed in an airstrike in Pakistan on Saturday, May 21, 2016.
Hide Caption
16 of 16
The Taliban, a Sunni Islamist organization operating primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was formed in 1994. It was led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, a veteran of the Afghan mujahedeen that fought invading Soviets from 1979-1989. Omar, seen here in an undated video image, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/29/asia/afghanistan-mullah-omar/index.html" target="_blank">died in April 2013</a>, according to a representative for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
Photos: The Taliban
The Taliban, a Sunni Islamist organization operating primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was formed in 1994. It was led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, a veteran of the Afghan mujahedeen that fought invading Soviets from 1979-1989. Omar, seen here in an undated video image, died in April 2013, according to a representative for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
Hide Caption
1 of 16
In this image taken off television by BBC Newsnight, Omar -- fourth from left -- attends a rally with Taliban troops before their victorious assault on Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in 1996. The Taliban's aim is to impose its interpretation of Islamic law on Afghanistan and remove foreign influence from the country. Most of its members are Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.
Photos: The Taliban
In this image taken off television by BBC Newsnight, Omar -- fourth from left -- attends a rally with Taliban troops before their victorious assault on Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in 1996. The Taliban's aim is to impose its interpretation of Islamic law on Afghanistan and remove foreign influence from the country. Most of its members are Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.
Hide Caption
2 of 16
Tanks manned by Taliban fighters are decorated with flowers in front of the presidential palace in Kabul on September 27, 1996.
Photos: The Taliban
Tanks manned by Taliban fighters are decorated with flowers in front of the presidential palace in Kabul on September 27, 1996.
Hide Caption
3 of 16
Taliban soldiers in Russian-made tanks fire on the forces of former Afghan defense minister Ahmad Shah Massood in October 1996.
Photos: The Taliban
Taliban soldiers in Russian-made tanks fire on the forces of former Afghan defense minister Ahmad Shah Massood in October 1996.
Hide Caption
4 of 16
Afghan women in Kabul are covered head to toe in traditional burqas on October 16, 1996. After taking over Kabul, the ruling Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws on the Afghan people. Television, music and non-Islamic holidays were banned. Women were not allowed to attend school or work outside the home, and they were forbidden to travel alone.
Photos: The Taliban
Afghan women in Kabul are covered head to toe in traditional burqas on October 16, 1996. After taking over Kabul, the ruling Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws on the Afghan people. Television, music and non-Islamic holidays were banned. Women were not allowed to attend school or work outside the home, and they were forbidden to travel alone.
Hide Caption
5 of 16
Three women hitch a ride on the back of a donkey cart as they pass by the ruins of Kabul's former commercial district in November 1996.
Photos: The Taliban
Three women hitch a ride on the back of a donkey cart as they pass by the ruins of Kabul's former commercial district in November 1996.
Hide Caption
6 of 16
This is an undated image believed to show the Taliban's former leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar. In 1997, the Taliban issued an edict renaming Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The country was only officially recognized by three countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Photos: The Taliban
This is an undated image believed to show the Taliban's former leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar. In 1997, the Taliban issued an edict renaming Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The country was only officially recognized by three countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Hide Caption
7 of 16
In 1997, Omar forged a relationship with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, pictured. Bin Laden then moved his base of operations to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
Photos: The Taliban
In 1997, Omar forged a relationship with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, pictured. Bin Laden then moved his base of operations to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
Hide Caption
8 of 16
In March 2001, Taliban soldiers stand at the base of the mountain alcove where a Buddha statue once stood 170 feet high in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. The Taliban destroyed two 1,500-year-old Buddha figures in the town, saying they were idols that violated Islam.
Photos: The Taliban
In March 2001, Taliban soldiers stand at the base of the mountain alcove where a Buddha statue once stood 170 feet high in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. The Taliban destroyed two 1,500-year-old Buddha figures in the town, saying they were idols that violated Islam.
Hide Caption
9 of 16
After the 9/11 attacks, the United States conducted military strikes against al Qaeda training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime. In this long-exposure photo, a U.S. Navy fighter jet takes off from the deck of the USS Enterprise on October 7, 2001.
Photos: The Taliban
After the 9/11 attacks, the United States conducted military strikes against al Qaeda training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime. In this long-exposure photo, a U.S. Navy fighter jet takes off from the deck of the USS Enterprise on October 7, 2001.
Hide Caption
10 of 16
An Afghan anti-Taliban fighter pops up from his tank to spot a U.S. warplane bombing al Qaeda fighters in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan on December 10, 2001. After massive U.S. bombardment as a part of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban lost Afghanistan to U.S. and Northern Alliance forces.
Photos: The Taliban
An Afghan anti-Taliban fighter pops up from his tank to spot a U.S. warplane bombing al Qaeda fighters in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan on December 10, 2001. After massive U.S. bombardment as a part of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban lost Afghanistan to U.S. and Northern Alliance forces.
Hide Caption
11 of 16
Afghans look into Omar's bedroom as they go through his compound on the outskirts of Kandahar on December 11, 2001.
Photos: The Taliban
Afghans look into Omar's bedroom as they go through his compound on the outskirts of Kandahar on December 11, 2001.
Hide Caption
12 of 16
In April 2011, hundreds of prisoners escaped from a prison in Kandahar by crawling through a tunnel. The Taliban took responsibility for the escape. This picture shows a general view of the prison, top center, and the house, bottom right, from which Taliban militiamen dug the tunnel leading to the prison.
Photos: The Taliban
In April 2011, hundreds of prisoners escaped from a prison in Kandahar by crawling through a tunnel. The Taliban took responsibility for the escape. This picture shows a general view of the prison, top center, and the house, bottom right, from which Taliban militiamen dug the tunnel leading to the prison.
Hide Caption
13 of 16
Security guards stand outside the new Taliban political office in Doha, Qatar, before its official opening in June 2013. The Taliban announced that they hoped to improve relations with other countries, head toward a peaceful solution to the Afghanistan occupation and establish an independent Islamic system in the country.
Photos: The Taliban
Security guards stand outside the new Taliban political office in Doha, Qatar, before its official opening in June 2013. The Taliban announced that they hoped to improve relations with other countries, head toward a peaceful solution to the Afghanistan occupation and establish an independent Islamic system in the country.
Hide Caption
14 of 16
Zafar Hashemi, deputy spokesman for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, speaks during a news conference on July 29, when the news of Omar's death was announced.
Photos: The Taliban
Zafar Hashemi, deputy spokesman for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, speaks during a news conference on July 29, when the news of Omar's death was announced.
Hide Caption
15 of 16
Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour became the leader of the Taliban after Omar's death.<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/21/politics/u-s-conducted-airstrike-against-taliban-leader-mullah-mansour/index.html" target="_blank"> Mansour was killed in an airstrike in Pakistan on Saturday, May 21, 2016</a>.
Photos: The Taliban
Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour became the leader of the Taliban after Omar's death. Mansour was killed in an airstrike in Pakistan on Saturday, May 21, 2016.
Hide Caption
16 of 16
The Taliban, a Sunni Islamist organization operating primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was formed in 1994. It was led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, a veteran of the Afghan mujahedeen that fought invading Soviets from 1979-1989. Omar, seen here in an undated video image, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/29/asia/afghanistan-mullah-omar/index.html" target="_blank">died in April 2013</a>, according to a representative for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
Photos: The Taliban
The Taliban, a Sunni Islamist organization operating primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was formed in 1994. It was led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, a veteran of the Afghan mujahedeen that fought invading Soviets from 1979-1989. Omar, seen here in an undated video image, died in April 2013, according to a representative for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
Hide Caption
1 of 16
In this image taken off television by BBC Newsnight, Omar -- fourth from left -- attends a rally with Taliban troops before their victorious assault on Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in 1996. The Taliban's aim is to impose its interpretation of Islamic law on Afghanistan and remove foreign influence from the country. Most of its members are Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.
Photos: The Taliban
In this image taken off television by BBC Newsnight, Omar -- fourth from left -- attends a rally with Taliban troops before their victorious assault on Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in 1996. The Taliban's aim is to impose its interpretation of Islamic law on Afghanistan and remove foreign influence from the country. Most of its members are Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.
Hide Caption
2 of 16
Tanks manned by Taliban fighters are decorated with flowers in front of the presidential palace in Kabul on September 27, 1996.
Photos: The Taliban
Tanks manned by Taliban fighters are decorated with flowers in front of the presidential palace in Kabul on September 27, 1996.
Hide Caption
3 of 16
Taliban soldiers in Russian-made tanks fire on the forces of former Afghan defense minister Ahmad Shah Massood in October 1996.
Photos: The Taliban
Taliban soldiers in Russian-made tanks fire on the forces of former Afghan defense minister Ahmad Shah Massood in October 1996.
Hide Caption
4 of 16
Afghan women in Kabul are covered head to toe in traditional burqas on October 16, 1996. After taking over Kabul, the ruling Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws on the Afghan people. Television, music and non-Islamic holidays were banned. Women were not allowed to attend school or work outside the home, and they were forbidden to travel alone.
Photos: The Taliban
Afghan women in Kabul are covered head to toe in traditional burqas on October 16, 1996. After taking over Kabul, the ruling Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws on the Afghan people. Television, music and non-Islamic holidays were banned. Women were not allowed to attend school or work outside the home, and they were forbidden to travel alone.
Hide Caption
5 of 16
Three women hitch a ride on the back of a donkey cart as they pass by the ruins of Kabul's former commercial district in November 1996.
Photos: The Taliban
Three women hitch a ride on the back of a donkey cart as they pass by the ruins of Kabul's former commercial district in November 1996.
Hide Caption
6 of 16
This is an undated image believed to show the Taliban's former leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar. In 1997, the Taliban issued an edict renaming Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The country was only officially recognized by three countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Photos: The Taliban
This is an undated image believed to show the Taliban's former leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar. In 1997, the Taliban issued an edict renaming Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The country was only officially recognized by three countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Hide Caption
7 of 16
In 1997, Omar forged a relationship with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, pictured. Bin Laden then moved his base of operations to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
Photos: The Taliban
In 1997, Omar forged a relationship with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, pictured. Bin Laden then moved his base of operations to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
Hide Caption
8 of 16
01 mullah omar 0729
02 mullah omar 0729
07 mullah omar 0729 RESTRICTED
04 mullah omar 0729
05 mullah omar 0729 RESTRICTED
06 mullah omar 0729
03 mullah omar 0729 RESTRICTED
08 mullah omar 0729 RESTRICTED
09 mullah omar 0729 RESTRICTED
06 taliban rise and fall
03 taliban rise and fall RESTRICTED
04 taliban rise and fall RESTRICTED
07 taliban rise and fall
01 taliban rise and fall
02 taliban rise and fall RESTRICTED
Mullah Akhtar Mansoor
Al Qaeda and ISIS have also established footholds in Afghanistan.
Whereas a few years back Kabul had a bustling restaurant scene and Westerners could live there and lead relatively normal lives, all that is now gone as a result of the multiple bombings in Kabul by the Taliban and the targeted kidnapping of Westerners. The exodus of Westerners from the country has had an adverse impact on both investment and development in Afghanistan.
Because of the worsening situation in Afghanistan, the Trump administration is engaged in a strategic review of Afghanistan both at the Pentagon and the National Security Council, according to multiple U.S. and Afghan officials.
Opium fuels the stalemate in America's longest war
Opium fuels the stalemate in America's longest war
US National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster is overseeing the Afghanistan review at the White House and will be traveling to Afghanistan soon to make his own assessment.
McMaster served in Afghanistan running an anti-corruption task force in 2010, as a result of which he understands the players and politics of the country well.
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee in February, Gen. John "Mick" Nicholson said that the present troop level of 8,400 US soldiers was insufficient and noted, "We have a shortfall of a few thousand" advisers to train and assist the Afghan army.
The Obama administration had a counterproductive policy of announcing scheduled withdrawals from Afghanistan even as it surged troops into the country. Take, for instance, a speech at West Point on December 1, 2009, where President Obama announced a surge of troops into Afghanistan and also announced their withdrawal date. That withdrawal date, of course, came and went -- as did a number of others.
It is in American and Afghan interests for the US to stay in Afghanistan so it doesn't turn into Iraq circa 2014, with the Taliban controlling much of the country while hosting a strong presence of ISIS and al-Qaeda as well as every other jihadist group of note.
Follow CNN Opinion
Join us on Twitter and Facebook
What to do? The Trump administration should publicly state that the US already has a strategic partnership with Afghanistan until 2024 that was negotiated by the Obama administration and that it promises to maintain a US military "train and advise" non-combat mission for the Afghan army that will stay in the country until the Taliban are contained.
Afghans don't care if the United States has 8,400 troops in the country, as it does now, or 12,000 troops or 20,000 troops. Clearly there is a difference from a purely military point of view but from a political point of view the message Afghans want to hear is that the United States is not abandoning them.
A public announcement of such a long-term commitment to Afghanistan will help NATO and other allies also commit for the long term. It will also undermine the Taliban.

 

Posted by at
Labels:

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)